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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

With the NWS utterly downplaying everything in the overnight discussion, and even doubting Thursday, I bet my money on that. If there is a chance the cap will be too strong....well, it will be. HRRR now confirming that, breaking up what line it had earlier hitting the metro.

I can deal with some busts. But, literally every chance of storms or even rain has fallen apart for weeks. Or just missed me to the north or east. Craving some thunder. Maybe I was wrong to assume I would have more severe thunderstorms than in the desert...

Luckily climo has the season just starting now, so got plenty of time left.

Time is on our side right now but I sure hope it works in our favor. Miss a good storm too, next week may work out, but I don't trust a model past two days anymore. Thursday I thought would pan out and the dryline literally knocking on our door this time, but that cap may be in the way once again, unless Mother Nature throws a surprise at us which she has done in the past.

Side Note: HRRR missed again with regards to activity today, so what model does that leave, lol?

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Roy

Roy

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It's like the red river is an actual barrier. Just like previous times, the storms have followed that border and stayed to the north of it. I am going to stop believing the HRRR at this point.  Fingers crossed for something to work out with the next chance.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Maybe this afternoon?  Things look to be destabilizing at a pretty steady pace this afternoon, will forcing arrive in time to kick off some storms.  The HRRR has been over doing convection all week but seems more stable today and isn't just randomly throwing out storms in different locations each run.  So maybe we will actually see it be right for once today :lol:

 

CBhZ0n4UcAAFMi_.png

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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Maybe this afternoon?  Things look to be destabilizing at a pretty steady pace this afternoon, will forcing arrive in time to kick off some storms.  The HRRR has been over doing convection all week but seems more stable today and isn't just randomly throwing out storms in different locations each run.  So maybe we will actually see it be right for once today :lol:

 

CBhZ0n4UcAAFMi_.png

 

Clearing is just off to the west.  Denton and Decatur reporting partly cloudy.  Be nice to get some sun and the heat it brings.  

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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This has the potential to be an interesting afternoon in North Texas. Strong to severe storms moving through D/FW in the evening rush and outflow boundaries laying around from this morning's storms. Let's see how many morons end up clogging roads by parking under bridges. 

lol, D/FW drivers are the reason I don't leave work until around 6:30-7:00 as they can't manage to drive during a sunny day most of the time.

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Roy

Roy

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Nice tower west of North FW. Hearing thunder and just severe warned. Turning out to perhaps be a decent day, at least something out there severe! It likely will just pass about 5 miles to my north, but still very close. Looks nice on radar.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Nice tower west of North FW. Hearing thunder and just severe warned. Turning out to perhaps be a decent day, at least something out there severe! It likely will just pass about 5 miles to my north, but still very close. Looks nice on radar.

 

That one looks nice but will just skirt the NW burbs but should get Denton pretty good.  The cells trying to fire down near Hico appear to be having issues maintaining updrafts.  That would be the area to watch for something to move into DFW proper. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Nice tower west of North FW. Hearing thunder and just severe warned. Turning out to perhaps be a decent day, at least something out there severe! It likely will just pass about 5 miles to my north, but still very close. Looks nice on radar.

 

Looks like that cell is taking on more of an eastward motion over the past few minutes. 

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radarman

radarman

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That storm north of Fort Worth still has 67dbz. It is looking a little more like a splitting cell or flying eagle, although I don't see much evidence of rotation.

Yeah it did have a brief flying eagle look. There was a very small amount of rotation at the tip of the rfd evident on the X band at UT Arlington but nothing major. Nice hail though.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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Some nice parameters tomorrow, if something were to go off.  Note to self: Do not fall for the HRRR again tomorrow b/c it will most certainly fire off some crazy convection!

Cap is pretty strong tomorrow so kind of doubtful, but never know things can change. Really hope we get some decent rain Sunday to add some moisture for next week. Next week has some promise for several days perhaps of activity and with shear and instability in place it may actually be our week. Hopeful at this point but don't want to get over confident.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Cap is pretty strong tomorrow so kind of doubtful, but never know things can change. Really hope we get some decent rain Sunday to add some moisture for next week. Next week has some promise for several days perhaps of activity and with shear and instability in place it may actually be our week. Hopeful at this point but don't want to get over confident.

If temps can get into the upper 80s then we might have a chance. At least there is something to keep an eye on this afternoon,even if nothing happens.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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Looks like most all guidance fires storms along the dry line this afternoon. However, not seeing anything indicating that storms will become surface based. Looks like it will just be some pulses of convection that get killed as they try to move off the dry line.

Well if that does happen, perhaps it will weaken the cap, FWD did make mention of that as a possibility.  I looked at the visible and there was some type of boundary moving south into DFW, not sure what it was though and it seems to have slowed down over top of us.

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