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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Time is on our side. Climo says we should start to ebb soon. Niño years are usually pretty good bets to go low on hundred degree days as well as an early end to summer. Of course, I hate summer. Maybe a little wish casting going on.

I can dig this. I'm thinking the pattern starts to transition in 10 to 14 days. We look to stay warm into September but should start to see some rain return as the patttern breaks down. I'll try to post some stuff later that gives me hope lol.

Also, check out the July AO and the corresponding winters.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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I can dig this. I'm thinking the pattern starts to transition in 10 to 14 days. We look to stay warm into September but should start to see some rain return as the patttern breaks down. I'll try to post some stuff later that gives me hope lol.

Also, check out the July AO and the corresponding winters.

I saw that WSI article on it. Even more promising is the stuff HM is tweeting. Correlation is even stronger for top -AO Julys.

The last Niño in 2009-2010, there was a discussion on eastern regarding ozone, the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and ENSO. The gist of it being that ozone is increased and transported to higher latitudes from the tropics during Ninos. The higher ozone is supposed to promote blocking. Maybe the reason for the lack of a -AO/NAO has been the persistent negative ENSO since then?

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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I saw that WSI article on it. Even more promising is the stuff HM is tweeting. Correlation is even stronger for top -AO Julys.

The last Niño in 2009-2010, there was a discussion on eastern regarding ozone, the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and ENSO. The gist of it being that ozone is increased and transported to higher latitudes from the tropics during Ninos. The higher ozone is supposed to promote blocking. Maybe the reason for the lack of a -AO/NAO has been the persistent negative ENSO since then?

 

After looking at some stuff, I'm not sure that this July -AO will mean anything come this winter. 

I keep coming back to the unique SST configuration that is ongoing and saying,  "¯\_(ツ)_/¯"

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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After looking at some stuff, I'm not sure that this July -AO will mean anything come this winter.

I keep coming back to the unique SST configuration that is ongoing and saying, "¯\_(ツ)_/¯"

All about the low. If it sets up in GOA, we are done. If it's in the Aleutians we are in good shape. Have no clue. I'd bet on the eastern solution now but if those CCKWs wane the west might be a good place for the setup.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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All about the low. If it sets up in GOA, we are done. If it's in the Aleutians we are in good shape. Have no clue. I'd bet on the eastern solution now but if those CCKWs wane the west might be a good place for the setup.

 

Going through some stuff and '09-10, the top -AO July, is interesting comparison but there is just so much warm water off the west coast this year

 

anomnight.8.10.2009.gif

However, the N. Pacific just collapses going into winter

 

anomnight.12.31.2009.gif

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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And this hasn't really even been a bad summer! I don't think we have had any record highs at DFW but the rainless streak is making things seem worse than they really are.

My yard has pulled away from the house about 2". Pretty alarming. The extreme flood or drought stuff has really wreaked havoc.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

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My yard has pulled away from the house about 2". Pretty alarming. The extreme flood or drought stuff has really wreaked havoc.

 

Yeah, these dry conditions can potentially crack the slab.  Another reason to water the lawn.

 

Man, I am dreading that water bill...and cinch bug are still starting to get a grip on the grass.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Shoot me. I hate Texas summer so very, very, very much. Especially since summer basically goes until October.

 

We shouldn't have to worry about that this year. El Niño years are notorious for cooling more early than later.

 

Looks like our "record" El Niño this year may have peaked according to multivariate ENSO index? The warm waters around Australia into the Indian Ocean maybe a nail in the coffin for this year's El Niño.

 

For DFW, the best analog I've seen for this year still is the 1957-58 El Niño. Would expect a full return to wet conditions this fall. The 1957-58 winter was crap with no snow and one mild Arctic outbreak. (But then again, most El Niño winters are crappy here, exception being 2009-2010.) The low for the winter was 18°F. I'm hoping this winter will be closer to 2009-10 with the well above normal waters in the Gulf of Alaska and along the western CONUS.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

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This article from WSI shows that -AO July's like this past one usually result in -AO winters. '09-'10 had the lowest July AO and we all know how that turned out. After reading that  I took a look at the NAO and it was less conclusive. This past July tied the all time record for lowest monthly NAO with a -3.14 matching July 1993. The '93-'94 winter had a +NAO. A -AO and El Nino winter could get interesting so I will definitely start studying up on our winter prospects.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

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Here in downtown Tyler we just got our first rain in a very long time in the form of a very gusty Severe warned storm. Radar estimates are over an inch SW of Tyler. Looks like a line is forming south of I-20 from Dallas east.

Looks like we got between a quarter and a half inch in about fifteen minutes with temps falling from 103 to 73.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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Yeah, these dry conditions can potentially crack the slab.  Another reason to water the lawn.

 

Man, I am dreading that water bill...and cinch bug are still starting to get a grip on the grass.

I think our builders are partly to blame. There's something wrong when bubblers and drip hoses are exposed. Then there are the ever present water nazis.

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cstrunk

cstrunk

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Here in downtown Tyler we just got our first rain in a very long time in the form of a very gusty Severe warned storm. Radar estimates are over an inch SW of Tyler. Looks like a line is forming south of I-20 from Dallas east.

Looks like we got between a quarter and a half inch in about fifteen minutes with temps falling from 103 to 73.

 

Yes we did! I forgot to post about it. I got about 0.55" of much needed rain from that storm in my backyard. It was a very fun storm as well to watch on my back patio. The winds were very gusty for a prolonged period of time, I'd say up to 50-60 mph. I watched a very large limb fall on my neighbors fence. 

 

That was the first meaningful rainfall at my house in nearly 2 months. I hope the pattern change next week helps some more.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

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We have scattered showers over SE Texas heading WSW.

 

More rain to come in the HGX and DFW areas this week.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
129 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015


.AVIATION...
LL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH UPPER
SHEAR AXIS FROM TXK-CLL-ALI. AS THE TEMPERATURES HIT THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP AT 90-91 DEGREES SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ALONG
THE DEEPER MOISTURE (GPS IPWV 2.05" AT GLS VS 1.75" AT IAH) POISED
NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO SHIFT INLAND AS HEATING
CONTINUES AND LL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE. VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH THE WINDOW AT HOU/IAH AROUND
19-22Z FOR THE GREATER IMPACTS IF ANY. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE RICHER
THE EAST AND SOUTH AND EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO THE DEVELOP NEAR BPT
AND SHIFT WEST AND NW WITH OUTFLOW DRIVING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT
IF IT COMES TO IAH/HOU/CXO TERMINALS IT WOULD PROBABLY BE AFTER
22Z AND MAY HAVE TO OVERCOMING ANY OUTFLOWS FROM CURRENT STORMS
OVER THE SW THAT MODIFY THE ATMOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS. PATCHY FOG/MIFG STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR CXO/LBX AFTER 10Z.
TOMORROW SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CREEPS INLAND AND AGAIN SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING 14-23Z.
45
&&

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
UPPER TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND FROM
SARGENT SW TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES EXIST MORE OVER
THE NW GULF THROUGH THE N C GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO CO-LOCATED
WITH A SHEAR AXIS/UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH FROM ALONG THE TX COAST NE THROUGH THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH WED. THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST
AND EVEN BEGIN TO EDGE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE C PLAINS AND
MIDWEST TUE GOING INTO WED. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SW TO WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE TROUGH RIDING
OVER THE TOP OF IT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO SE TX MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MON/TUE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE COAST WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH
WILL BE PRESENT. DO NOT SEE A LARGE SEVERE THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DROUGHT FOR THE AREA...DO NOT SEE A FLOOD THREAT AT THIS POINT.

RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WED INTO THUR AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO TX ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO AUSTIN AND BE
A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS
REALLY ROBUST WITH PRECIP AND IS MUCH STRONGER PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. LEANED MORE ON THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH STILL SHOW
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST WILL CARRY 60 POPS FOR WED/THUR
TIME FRAME. WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WHICH WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHEARS OUT FRI INTO SAT WHICH
SHOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HEIGHT FIELDS MAY BEING TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO KEEP SOME 20 POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 39

 

 

GRK_loop.gif

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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We shouldn't have to worry about that this year. El Niño years are notorious for cooling more early than later.

 

Looks like our "record" El Niño this year may have peaked according to multivariate ENSO index? The warm waters around Australia into the Indian Ocean maybe a nail in the coffin for this year's El Niño.

 

For DFW, the best analog I've seen for this year still is the 1957-58 El Niño. Would expect a full return to wet conditions this fall. The 1957-58 winter was crap with no snow and one mild Arctic outbreak. (But then again, most El Niño winters are crappy here, exception being 2009-2010.) The low for the winter was 18°F. I'm hoping this winter will be closer to 2009-10 with the well above normal waters in the Gulf of Alaska and along the western CONUS.

 

'57-58 does look pretty good right now but I wonder if it will hold up going in the the fall and winter. We might need to look towards some non-super Nino winters like '02 or '86 to get a picture of what this winter might look like. Obviously, that is assuming that the warmth in the N. Pacific doesn't crash like '09. 

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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Nice to see a fairly strong for this time of year front with rain heading south and Gulf moisture to the south moving up. Midday temps in the mid to upper 80s and likely not rising much more with increasing cloud cover and increasing rain chances. Tomorrow may have trouble reaching 80 with clouds and rain. Plus lows in the mid 60s.

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wxmx

wxmx

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Sitting at 99F and with a pretty strong T-Storm complex brewing up just north of me. Looks like the kind of the rare August hail setup. Last time it happened 16 years ago, half the city had to change their windshields due to some baseball/softball hail.

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