Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[jm1220]

Models tonight seem to once again be doing the last minute Texas two-stepping of the heavy rain axis east of I-35 to the areas that have been getting pounded. 

 

There's a good amount of rain SW of here so hopefully we can at least make it to 2" in Austin, although I already see the nudge on radar to get it east of us. But the huge rain amounts that seemed likely earlier are going to be east of us again. It would be nice if the heavy rain here could verify for once.

[cstrunk]

Heavy rain bust for Tyler so far, and looks like that will continue.  Only received about 0.50" of rain since yesterday morning, and with the heavy rain axis being much further south and east than what was being forecast, the 2-4" totals at least here will not verify.  FFW has been trimmed back out of my area as well.

 

Kind of a bummer, but we've had plenty of rain the way it is.  I'm ready to get more sun and warmer temps moving in so we can start building some instability for thunderstorms.  It feels like I've been living in Seattle since February.

[jm1220]

Heavy rain bust for Tyler so far, and looks like that will continue. Only received about 0.50" of rain since yesterday morning, and with the heavy rain axis being much further south and east than what was being forecast, the 2-4" totals at least here will not verify. FFW has been trimmed back out of my area as well.

Kind of a bummer, but we've had plenty of rain the way it is. I'm ready to get more sun and warmer temps moving in so we can start building some instability for thunderstorms. It feels like I've been living in Seattle since February.

Same here, I kinda thought I left these drizzle/cloudy conditions in NYC. It was a decent rain event here in Austin but nothing like what was predicted. That definitely verified east of where it was supposed to 24 hrs prior, and back here is where the rain is needed.

[Srain]

Pushing 5.5 inches for the month of March IMBY. We're generally about 200% above normal for much of SE Texas. Lake Travis is slowly rising and areas NW of Dallas is seeing some improvement with Lake Levels. Del Rio has seen beneficial rainfall and the Lower and Middle Texas Coastal Plain has seen substantially better rainfall the past 10 days. Not too shabby so far. Central Mexico has certainly benefited.as well as New Mexico. All in all a typical El Nino pattern has eased the multi year drought.

[vwgrrc]

Steve is talking about the severe threat, even tornados on Wednesday evening for dfw. This might be our first real severe wx this year.

But we all know this time of the year, the darn CAP could kill anything!

[jhamps10]

Steve is talking about the severe threat, even tornados on Wednesday evening for dfw. This might be our first real severe wx this year.

But we all know this time of the year, the darn CAP could kill anything!

 

yeah, FWD put out a graphic about it yesterday afternoon, just a heads up kinda thing for now. i could see it, I was doing some research and march tornadoes in Texas aren't as rare as one thinks, in fact according to this report, Texas has the highest tornadoes in March of the entire country.. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/10/heres-where-tornadoes-typically-form-in-march-across-the-united-states/

[Quixotic1]

Yesterday was pretty bizarre.  Had a Cu field off to the NW.  You could see some virga and horsetails along with it.  As it approached, you could tell that the dry air at the mid to lower levels was eating any attempt at convection alive.  Later, saw what looked to be very high based convection occurring but was getting killed at the lower level.  Like seeing a supercell cut in half. 

 

To top it off, we had a line along the front less than a county away hauling towards us as I went to bed.......and we didn't get a drop, a flash or a peal.  

 

Man I hope this isn't a tiding of things to come.  

[Roy]

Same here, Quix. Looked nice when went to bed, and not even a puddle this morning. 

[NTXYankee]

I think the cap is unbreakable in Texas only or perhaps DFW, very frustrating the last several years. Need some good storms and save the dry boring weather for the middle of the summer. Pattern though the next week or two doesn't look very promising.

[Quixotic1]

I actually think things will improve. While we are still dry, the drought in surrounding areas is lessening. Hopefully things will green up and transpiration will help raise surface moisture. Such a long process. A second year niño would be nice. Still have April and May to go.

Roy, I think that gust front signaled our demise last night.

[bubba hotep]

Yeah, the other night was a major let down.  We did get a very brief shower just around sunset:

 

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro weeklies work out and we can get rid of this persistent NW flow.

[Quixotic1]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro weeklies work out and we can get rid of this persistent NW flow.

 

Considering the long term pattern for the PDO, it's just a matter of time.  It's been persistent though.  

[vwgrrc]

Some great discussion on Steve's fb page. Basically very unstable condition but strong CAP in place. Yes again!

 

[bubba hotep]

12z 4K NAM and various runs of the HRRR want to pop a few cells across the far NE burbs of DFW this evening.  If things can get going then there should be a pretty good light show. 

[bubba hotep]

HRRR continues to focus on Denton and Collin for this afternoon and evening.  There isn't a cloud in the sky right now, so this could be pretty photogenic when it goes up (if it does).

 

[NTXYankee]

HRRR continues to focus on Denton and Collin for this afternoon and evening.  There isn't a cloud in the sky right now, so this could be pretty photogenic when it goes up (if it does).

 

It has been pretty consistent every run so far of blowing up some nice cells between 0z and 1z over both counties. Will be interesting to see if it pans out. Starting to feel a little more humid so moisture is making it's way up.

[bubba hotep]

CAP is holding strong but that helped us max out potential surface heating this afternoon. If it breaks, there could be a really nice show this evening.

[vwgrrc]

CAP is holding strong but that helped us max out potential surface heating this afternoon. If it breaks, there could be a really nice show this evening.

Is that a strong cap would even enhance the level of severity if it was broken?

[NTXYankee]

CAP is holding strong but that helped us max out potential surface heating this afternoon. If it breaks, there could be a really nice show this evening.

Nice little cu field developing nw of DFW lets see if that was what the HRRR was advertising.

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

[Quixotic1]

Can see the front on FWD radar. Like insects or a gust front.

[bubba hotep]

Can see the front on FWD radar. Like insects or a gust front.

 

[Roy]

CU looking nice, just wishing it would be towering a bit quicker. But, models look good. Will see if they can break the cap soon.

 

Update: NWS said uncapped, but moisture-starved atmosphere may prevent formation of anything. Frankly, the CU look pathetic now.

[bubba hotep]

CU looking nice, just wishing it would be towering a bit quicker. But, models look good. Will see if they can break the cap soon.

 

Update: NWS said uncapped, but moisture-starved atmosphere may prevent formation of anything. Frankly, the CU look pathetic now.

 

Yeah, the visual that I have isn't anything impressive at this point.  However, radar looks like maybe a something trying over Cooke now... 

[NTXYankee]

Frustrating this pattern is, high cape no moisture, plenty of moisture no cape, and a cap in all scenarios. Someone needs to find the reset button on this or come June we are going to be hurting again this year with a drought.

[Roy]

DFW is still above normal for the year, but now below normal for the month. Need some rain fast to overcome that and start April off good. What looked like a pretty good chance of rain TUE/WED is now looking less and less per FWD discussion.

[NTXYankee]

Yeah Tuesday and Wednesday don't look as good as before, but some rain is better than none at this point.

Thursday is kind of interesting now, dryline sweeps east and parks just west of Fort Worth with good looking cape, shear, EHI, and lift. Cap would be breakable too according to FWD. Fly in ointment is a decent kicker as they mention convergence along dryline not as strong now, but models hint at a wave moving through. Have no idea how to look for a wave on models though. If dryline does trigger Thursday what blows up would be severe.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big expansion of the Day 1 "slight" to include the northern burbs of DFW. The HRRR supports this but has been pretty much crap all of March.

[Roy]

With the NWS utterly downplaying everything in the overnight discussion, and even doubting Thursday, I bet my money on that. If there is a chance the cap will be too strong....well, it will be. HRRR now confirming that, breaking up what line it had earlier hitting the metro.

 

I can deal with some busts. But, literally every chance of storms or even rain has fallen apart for weeks. Or just missed me to the north or east. Craving some thunder. Maybe I was wrong to assume I would have more severe thunderstorms than in the desert...

 

Luckily climo has the season just starting now, so got plenty of time left.