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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Seems a little high based on the models I looked at, but haven't been watching it closely. That could cause some real issues, though maybe PK will finally get full (Bridgeport apparently is hopeless).

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Seems a little high based on the models I looked at, but haven't been watching it closely. That could cause some real issues, though maybe PK will finally get full (Bridgeport apparently is hopeless).

 

actually if we were to get that much that might even get Bridgeport full lol... course at that point the rest of north TX would be part of the Gulf of mexico lol... 

 

Speaking of the Gulf, did anyone else think with the way the clouds were boiling up like they were at Sunset that they were in Galveston or somewhere along the ocean??? I sure did

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

Might want to watch for an MCV to develop overnight in the Hill Country. Storms southeast of Sonora appear to be getting some spin to them and a moist and more barotropic environment with weak flow through the troposphere could accommodate the development of one. If one were to develop, good instability and a strengthening nocturnal low level jet could lead to a heavy rain threat.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The Hill Country is getting rocked tonight by this MCS-numerous flood warnings out now. Looks like it's a coin flip as to whether it slams Austin later or settles south/stalls/dissipates, but Lake Travis should get another healthy rise tomorrow, and again this weekend with the expected heavy rain. 

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

I like the rain especially after living in the desert for five years. But, even I am starting to think that it's getting to be a bit much! But, we needed something crazy like this to fill the lakes since they had lost years worth of water.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

It looks like it is basically guaranteed that the atmosphere won't have enough time to recover across DFW tomorrow afternoon and there will probably be some subsidence in the wake of the departing S/W. However, if things could recover enough then it could get kind of tricky around DFW early tomorrow evening. Something to keep an eye on while watching the water runoff. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like a watch is coming for the DFW area

 

CFuQun2WMAAl4nR.png

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow will be interesting to see model wise who wins. GFS and HRRR now within range both show bulk of storms in metroplex rather than further south like the NAM who has decreased the coverage south and pops a blob moving in late afternoon. GFS dumps 3-5 inches of rain.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Yeah yesterday's rains pretty much missed the area forecasted to get the worst of them, west of DFW, and instead hit DFW. Will be interesting to see what impact tomorrow may have on lakes/rivers just west of DFW. The rainfall is just getting crazy.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Yeah yesterday's rains pretty much missed the area forecasted to get the worst of them, west of DFW, and instead hit DFW. Will be interesting to see what impact tomorrow may have on lakes/rivers just west of DFW. The rainfall is just getting crazy.

I did drive up to Winstar Saturday and for the first time since moving here the Red River was actually a river. It always looked like this valley with a small creek running through it now it resembles the Ohio River, could not believe how full it was and how close to 35 it came up to. Even Lake Lewisville was nearly to the bottom of the bridge on 35. Impressive to say the least just how much rain has fallen.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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Posted

Strong tornado hit the mexican city of Ciudad Acuña (just across the border of Del Rio, TX) this morning:

 

post-29-0-59022100-1432566673_thumb.jpg

post-29-0-36355000-1432566674_thumb.jpg

post-29-0-01136100-1432566675_thumb.jpg

 

Currently, 9 people have been confirmed dead. Also, the strong severe storm front that hit a large area of NE MX Saturday night (including Monterrey), had at least 1 embedded tornado report that hit Sabinas Hidalgo (between Monterrey and Laredo).

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