Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

55-hour storm total precipitation from the FWS radar, showing several area of 6-12" of rain in just over 2 days. Max is 16.8" at Eastland! Downtown Dallas and Fort Worth are up over 3".

 

 

 

This is from overnight, I'm not sure if it is all captured in the above image or not:

 

 

The Euro and Euro EPS are both showing 5"+ for a wide area of Texas over the next 10 days. Then after that, the pattern looks locked in for a bit more. Record Spring rainfall for areas of Texas?  

[NTXYankee]

This is from overnight, I'm not sure if it is all captured in the above image or not:

 

 

The Euro and Euro EPS are both showing 5"+ for a wide area of Texas over the next 10 days. Then after that, the pattern looks locked in for a bit more. Record Spring rainfall for areas of Texas?  

Sounds like it, now I just want a couple good supercells to get past the I-20 defensive line or weatherford and I'll be happy with this season.

[Roy]

If nothing else, I haven't been able to have overnight sleeping storms like this since I was a kid in Kansas. Been great. This never happened in Midland except maybe once a year.

[radarman]

If nothing else, I haven't been able to have overnight sleeping storms like this since I was a kid in Kansas. Been great. This never happened in Midland except maybe once a year.

Pretty incredible day shaping up. In Denton this morning... totally clear, just hit 60... highs in the lower 70s over dews in the 40s and very green. Stunning really.

[NTXYankee]

Pretty incredible day shaping up. In Denton this morning... totally clear, just hit 60... highs in the lower 70s over dews in the 40s and very green. Stunning really.

It is really nice out, feels like a spring day. I don't think I have experienced a spring like this since moving here, reminds me of Ohio right now. So much better than going from winter to summer.

[Roy]

You are telling me! I loved central Plains springs. It wasn't 100 in May or even really most of June, and this spring here has just been wonderful. Really helping the sod at the new house.

 

The green everywhere reminds me of Kansas City. 

[aggiegeog]

Sounds like a coworker of mine had her house hit in Van last night though I do not know to what degree. This is the second damaging storm she has had this year. It is scary knowing how close that storm was to my house.

[jm1220]

Absolutely dumping rain at my office, just a monsoon.

[DoctorMu]

Front appears stationary from Austin to CLL to Huntsville to Lufkin.  Training possible before moving towards Houston and the cast.

[jm1220]

Canadian 12z today puts up to 10" of rain across central Texas through 84hr.

[jhamps10]

Canadian 12z today puts up to 10" of rain across central Texas through 84hr.

 

Guess the models want to make Winstar an Oceanfront resort now then... seesh

[NTXYankee]

Guess the models want to make Winstar an Oceanfront resort now then... seesh

I always thought that place needed something else added to it, just isn't big enough yet lol

Edit: Hmm now you got me thinking about it and wanna go haven't been in a while. Maybe I can boat to it this weekend and probably get there faster than using that mess called 35.

[Quixotic1]

We should get a group chase together at some point! (I just jinxed us for the rest of the spring and summer... )

This.  Other than driving, co-piloting and rudimentary analysis I'm not good for much.  However if you need ballast....    

[jhamps10]

I always thought that place needed something else added to it, just isn't big enough yet lol

Edit: Hmm now you got me thinking about it and wanna go haven't been in a while. Maybe I can boat to it this weekend and probably get there faster than using that mess called 35.

 

haha I hear they're using 35 as a boat dock because the river is that high lol... OKAY so not that high yet but seesh wouldn't surprise me really

[bubba hotep]

This. Other than driving, co-piloting and rudimentary analysis I'm not good for much. However if you need ballast....

This Saturday might have some potential locally (I should mention that Saturday is the only day I can go so that might be skewing my thinking a bit!)

[NTXYankee]

haha I hear they're using 35 as a boat dock because the river is that high lol... OKAY so not that high yet but seesh wouldn't surprise me really

I would go just to see how high the red river is. Every time I drove over it, it looked like a little creek.

[jhamps10]

This Saturday might have some potential locally (I should mention that Saturday is the only day I can go so that might be skewing my thinking a bit!)

 

ha that's what I was thinking (not offering my car for a group chase.. not taking my 2014 fusion for any chases thank you) 

[Indystorm]

Just looked at Twister Data.  Sat. looks interesting in the plains if for no other reason than having a powerful 300 and 500 mb jet streak present which we did not have in recent episodes.

[jhamps10]

Just looked at Twister Data.  Sat. looks interesting in the plains if for no other reason than having a powerful 300 and 500 mb jet streak present which we did not have in recent episodes.

 

plus we won't have to worry about moisture, considering we're practically a sponge right now lol

[Quixotic1]

I need a chasers 101 or something. I have a crew cab pick up. If it were just me it would just be my cell (locally). Otherwise I might need something a bit more robust for the radar etc, and use the cell for positioning. HP super cells kinda make me nervous.

Now, come winter I want to blizzard chase. I've never been in one. Saw Hurricane Allen and the Jarrell F5. Pretty much the only things left on the bucket list are a blizzard and -30 F temps.

[jhamps10]

I need a chasers 101 or something. I have a crew cab pick up. If it were just me it would just be my cell (locally). Otherwise I might need something a bit more robust for the radar etc, and use the cell for positioning. HP super cells kinda make me nervous.

Now, come winter I want to blizzard chase. I've never been in one. Saw Hurricane Allen and the Jarrell F5. Pretty much the only things left on the bucket list are a blizzard and -30 F temps.

 

pretty much (and more experienced chasers PLEASE add to this, I'm a chase rookie as well) but a laptop with some sort of radar GRAE,GRE etc, and use the cell for GPS.. obiviously don't use the radar while driving so this is best suited for a couple of people so one can look at radar etc while other drives... oh yeah and a camera of somesort (pics or it didn't happen right!)

[jm1220]

I need a chasers 101 or something. I have a crew cab pick up. If it were just me it would just be my cell (locally). Otherwise I might need something a bit more robust for the radar etc, and use the cell for positioning. HP super cells kinda make me nervous.

Now, come winter I want to blizzard chase. I've never been in one. Saw Hurricane Allen and the Jarrell F5. Pretty much the only things left on the bucket list are a blizzard and -30 F temps.

I guess we're opposites. I saw the Blizzard of 1996 (what got me into following weather), PDII, Boxing Day 2010, etc. I left for Austin right before Juno slammed Long Island and New England. Never saw a tornado, been through tropical storms and Sandy-closest thing to a hurricane. 

[radarman]

I need a chasers 101 or something. I have a crew cab pick up. If it were just me it would just be my cell (locally). Otherwise I might need something a bit more robust for the radar etc, and use the cell for positioning. HP super cells kinda make me nervous.

Now, come winter I want to blizzard chase. I've never been in one. Saw Hurricane Allen and the Jarrell F5. Pretty much the only things left on the bucket list are a blizzard and -30 F temps.

For a blizzard chase I would recommend going to a big city with good walking. Getting into heavy snow bands and wind is fun anywhere but the added otherworldliness of a desolate urban environment adds to the cool factor.

A poster named MidlothianWx (Jake) posted an awesome video of Nemo (Feb 2013) in Boston. Still on these pages somewhere. That's the way to do it.

[BuffaloWeather]

I need a chasers 101 or something. I have a crew cab pick up. If it were just me it would just be my cell (locally). Otherwise I might need something a bit more robust for the radar etc, and use the cell for positioning. HP super cells kinda make me nervous.

Now, come winter I want to blizzard chase. I've never been in one. Saw Hurricane Allen and the Jarrell F5. Pretty much the only things left on the bucket list are a blizzard and -30 F temps.

 

I have some pretty awesome blizzard/Lake effect videos on my YouTube Channel. Check them out!

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3LutXF6kA73itxjVZ9h7-w

 

My bucket list includes going through an Cat2-Cat3 Hurricane preferably somewhere in Florida and also seeing an EF2+ Tornado live. I have some Met friends that might make a Tornado chase happen this year. Been awhile since Florida was hit with a Hurricane though.

[bubba hotep]

I need a chasers 101 or something. I have a crew cab pick up. If it were just me it would just be my cell (locally). Otherwise I might need something a bit more robust for the radar etc, and use the cell for positioning. HP super cells kinda make me nervous.

Now, come winter I want to blizzard chase. I've never been in one. Saw Hurricane Allen and the Jarrell F5. Pretty much the only things left on the bucket list are a blizzard and -30 F temps.

 

I lived through Andrew and then worked Katrina and Rita, both tracking and response... Then I knocked it out of the park with a number of epic blizzards in DC. I've seen one brief spin up years ago in college while sitting on a plane in St. Louis, it was probably an EF-0. 

 

I'm not actually so concerned about tornadoes and would be happy just seeing some awesome structure out over an open area. 

 

Anyway, 18z GFS would probably be no good for Saturday. It looks like it starts things early (where have we seen this before) and just hammers N. Texas with heavy rain. The 12z Euro looks like it has a more EML (I don't have access to soundings and am just basing that on upstream temps) coming out and keeping things from going off too early. 

[jhamps10]

I lived through Andrew and then worked Katrina and Rita, both tracking and response... Then I knocked it out of the park with a number of epic blizzards in DC. I've seen one brief spin up years ago in college while sitting on a plane in St. Louis, it was probably an EF-0. 

 

I'm not actually so concerned about tornadoes and would be happy just seeing some awesome structure out over an open area. 

 

Anyway, 18z GFS would probably be no good for Saturday. It looks like it starts things early (where have we seen this before) and just hammers N. Texas with heavy rain. The 12z Euro looks like it has a more EML (I don't have access to soundings and am just basing that on upstream temps) coming out and keeping things from going off too early. 

 

haha what else is new... Seeing spin ups from Lambert, and that the models pound with more heavy rain... I think it's time for a boat and an ark now

[NTXYankee]

Just looked at Twister Data. Sat. looks interesting in the plains if for no other reason than having a powerful 300 and 500 mb jet streak present which we did not have in recent episodes.

SPC's placement of the threat areas seem a bit off to me, but as we found out this past weekend that can change and this looks to be a similar situation for north texas again especially if the EML is missing, there is tons of moisture to work with once again and if we get the rain we could the next few days we'll be dogging severe storms with boundaries everywhere and floating...

[Quixotic1]

pretty much (and more experienced chasers PLEASE add to this, I'm a chase rookie as well) but a laptop with some sort of radar GRAE,GRE etc, and use the cell for GPS.. obiviously don't use the radar while driving so this is best suited for a couple of people so one can look at radar etc while other drives... oh yeah and a camera of somesort (pics or it didn't happen right!)

The camera.  Great suggestion.  I have a DSLR.  

 

I guess we're opposites. I saw the Blizzard of 1996 (what got me into following weather), PDII, Boxing Day 2010, etc. I left for Austin right before Juno slammed Long Island and New England. Never saw a tornado, been through tropical storms and Sandy-closest thing to a hurricane. 

I remember as a kid in Worcester where a storm knocked out all the power and the drifts were up to the second story window.  I don't count that as I'm not exactly sure when it was.  I was three.  

 

Anywho, tornadoes aren't common.  I've lived here 40+ years and I can count the TOGs on one hand.  But then again, I've never really gone looking for them either.  I'd say success is likely if you make up your mind to chase.  

 

For a blizzard chase I would recommend going to a big city with good walking. Getting into heavy snow bands and wind is fun anywhere but the added otherworldliness of a desolate urban environment adds to the cool factor.

A poster named MidlothianWx (Jake) posted an awesome video of Nemo (Feb 2013) in Boston. Still on these pages somewhere. That's the way to do it.

Good point about the big city.  Certainly don't want to get buried in Amarillo. I think I saw that video of Nemo.  Good stuff.  

 

I have some pretty awesome blizzard/Lake effect videos on my YouTube Channel. Check them out!

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3LutXF6kA73itxjVZ9h7-w

 

My bucket list includes going through an Cat2-Cat3 Hurricane preferably somewhere in Florida and also seeing an EF2+ Tornado live. I have some Met friends that might make a Tornado chase happen this year. Been awhile since Florida was hit with a Hurricane though.

Some folks here can tell you about Ike.  Ike was worse than the more powerful Rita.  I'd avoid Galveston.  

 

I lived through Andrew and then worked Katrina and Rita, both tracking and response... Then I knocked it out of the park with a number of epic blizzards in DC. I've seen one brief spin up years ago in college while sitting on a plane in St. Louis, it was probably an EF-0. 

 

I'm not actually so concerned about tornadoes and would be happy just seeing some awesome structure out over an open area. 

 

Anyway, 18z GFS would probably be no good for Saturday. It looks like it starts things early (where have we seen this before) and just hammers N. Texas with heavy rain. The 12z Euro looks like it has a more EML (I don't have access to soundings and am just basing that on upstream temps) coming out and keeping things from going off too early. 

 

Andrew must have been something.  You live here long enough, the tornadoes will come find you.  

[jm1220]

Rain is looking spottier and spottier down here for today, and we're relying on the next impulse to really regenerate things tomorrow. We had maybe a brief shower since yesterday morning in Austin. Each time we've had a flood watch so far since I've gotten here the rain prospects diminished greatly from there.

[Roy]

12GFS has some odd little QPF streak over the metro with a dry area to the west before the big rain swatch is over far northwestern TX. Would like that a bit further east to soak the watersheds more. But, as long as it stays where it is now it's far enough east to get them good.