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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I am still concerned for the southern and eastern metro.  As I loop NWS composite radar it seems like the whole storm complex is pivoting somewhat in a counterclockwise direction.  Wondering if the LLJ may have something to do with this.

 

Was noticing that, storms have kind of stalled out and started to pivot. Who knows if they will start to lift NE towards DFW proper. Still can't believe that one cell split with the southern half diving down towards Glen Rose... crazy motions this evening. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The line is starting to bow out in places-some places in there have to be getting 70 mph gusts. If it holds together, Austin and San Antonio are going to be in rough shape in a couple of hours. The profile becomes more stable east of here, so the line might start to decay as it heads east from the Hill Country. 

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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Yeah, it just sat and poured over my area last night, the only area of the metro apparently to get heavy rain aside from southern exurbs. Radar estimated 2.5 to 3 inches depending on the various products available.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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And frankly, I don't know if many people knew just how close we came to utter worst-case scenario last night. 30 miles to the north....and a training group of tornadic thunderstorms right over DFW with at least one huge wedge....

 

I can't imagine. And then add 6-7 inches of rain on top of it and baseball hail.

 

Definitely the strongest group of storms I have followed since moving to Texas, and that was in 2008. I know DFW had some awful ones in 2012.

 

Granted, I don't follow them if they aren't around me very much unless they are as severe as last night or near my Kansas hometown.  But, wow.

 

Maybe another 3-4 weeks now before the death ridge sets up? 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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And frankly, I don't know if many people knew just how close we came to utter worst-case scenario last night. 30 miles to the north....and a training group of tornadic thunderstorms right over DFW with at least one huge wedge....

 

I can't imagine. And then add 6-7 inches of rain on top of it and baseball hail.

 

Definitely the strongest group of storms I have followed since moving to Texas, and that was in 2008. I know DFW had some awful ones in 2012.

 

Granted, I don't follow them if they aren't around me very much unless they are as severe as last night or near my Kansas hometown.  But, wow.

 

Maybe another 3-4 weeks now before the death ridge sets up? 

 

The heavy rain and extensive large hail would have caused the most issues with last nights setup. The folks down south are lucky that conditions didn't get ripe for tornadoes until late in the evening.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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The storms were very loud when they came through Austin early this morning (around 2am) and caused some tree and power line damage. Winds were probably 50 mph or so. My office lost power and just got it back now. Also there were some localized flooding reports. As for the tornadoes, yes, we lucked out with the late evening convection. Otherwise we were as ripe as anyone. I'm not so sure about the tornado climatology down here but I doubt it would be that earth shattering for a significant tornado to hit Austin. After all, Jarrell isn't far from here and they had one of the most destructive F5 tornadoes in history. Austin's population is also exploding like many other areas in TX.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

The storms were very loud when they came through Austin early this morning (around 2am) and caused some tree and power line damage. Winds were probably 50 mph or so. My office lost power and just got it back now. Also there were some localized flooding reports. As for the tornadoes, yes, we lucked out with the late evening convection. Otherwise we were as ripe as anyone. I'm not so sure about the tornado climatology down here but I doubt it would be that earth shattering for a significant tornado to hit Austin. After all, Jarrell isn't far from here and they had one of the most destructive F5 tornadoes in history. Austin's population is also exploding like many other areas in TX.

 

Similar in the Brazos Valley.  50 mph winds.  Power outages and downed limbs in Navasota. This same line was wreaking havoc this am in Baton Rouge.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Not sure where to post this, but wow:

 

 

 

AT 1055 AM CDT...A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED AT BELLE CHASSE NAVAL AIR
STATION . DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...POYDRAS...VIOLET AND
MERAUX.
KNBG 271555Z 30023G43KT 1/16SM +FC OVC005CB 18/18 A2976 RMK TORNADO B44 TORNADO E44 TORNADO B48 AO2 PK WND 29043/1555 WSHFT 1532 SLP077 CONS LTGICCCCG OHD-SW-NW TS OHD-SW-NW MOV NE SVR T1 SET T01830183 $
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kayman

kayman

Posted
Posted

This is the same meso low complex that developed from the cluster of tornadic supercells on the southern end of the DFW Metroplex.  This is likely the same vorticity experienced from last night, but albeit slightly weaker than last night still intense low-level rotation.

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

I ended up with about 1.5 inches of rain on the south side of Tyler.  No severe weather.  There was a lot of lightning and thunder before the precipitation was even anywhere close.

 

The threat area today is closer to my domain.  The atmosphere is definitely worked over and it's cool outside.  We'll see just how much instability can build just to the south and west of here.  I'll keep an eye on things this afternoon and hopefully I'll get a chance to take a short drive west and see a decent storm.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to see how these reports verify. I'm going to guess that a lot of the early reports were either false alarms or just very brief touch downs. We got lucky that all of that was well south of the I-20 corridor and that conditions weren't favorable early on for stronger and longer lasting tornadoes. 

 

CDnTlZ2XIAIdujj.png

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to see how these reports verify. I'm going to guess that a lot of the early reports were either false alarms or just very brief touch downs. We got lucky that all of that was well south of the I-20 corridor and that conditions weren't favorable early on for stronger and longer lasting tornadoes. 

 

CDnTlZ2XIAIdujj.png

 

 

Yes it will be interesting to see a survey report, especially to find out the intensity of the later tornadoes. There was a report of a mile wide wedge. We'll see just how big it was! What an amazing complex of storms. I'm glad I had the opportunity to follow so many great streams last night. I really thought about leaving to go chase this area, but it was just a bit too far for me right now.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Yes it will be interesting to see a survey report, especially to find out the intensity of the later tornadoes. There was a report of a mile wide wedge. We'll see just how big it was! What an amazing complex of storms. I'm glad I had the opportunity to follow so many great streams last night. I really thought about leaving to go chase this area, but it was just a bit too far for me right now.

 

Sounds like the early reports are that they are mostly finding EF-0 type damage. 

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

Sounds like the early reports are that they are mostly finding EF-0 type damage. 

 

 

Most of the damage I saw from the choppers this morning looked like at worst Ef-1 damage

 

Interesting.  I didn't think they were going to find EF-4+ damage, but I thought there would be something greater than EF-1, considering the intensity of the supercell and the inflow it was able to create.

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