Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

Well, there isn't an upstream MCS to roll through in the morning hours and stabilize everything but radar returns down south seem to indicate that there is a vigorous pulse coming out of Mexico tonight. Those are always poorly sampled and storms spreading in from the SW will work just as well to stabilize things for tomorrow

[Roy]

Yep...

[bubba hotep]

Morning rain again but this could acactually make things worse today, svr weather wise. Will the warm front lift north today and clear the DFW area? It looks like this morning's storms may have pushed it back south or at least stalled it. Dry line looks to be far enough west to keep all of the DFW area in play, if there is adequate destabilization this afternoon.

[NTXYankee]

Morning rain again but this could acactually make things worse today, svr weather wise. Will the warm front lift north today and clear the DFW area? It looks like this morning's storms may have pushed it back south or at least stalled it. Dry line looks to be far enough west to keep all of the DFW area in play, if there is adequate destabilization this afternoon.

Warm front did move back south, but looks to start returning north again, guess on radar just row of counties south. The complex south has been weakening and isn't that substantial to hinder return flow that long and if anything may work atmosphere over down there somewhat to temper development until much later. Keeping fingers crossed this pans out today.

[Roy]

NAM seems to develop further south/west than DFW but also seems to maybe slightly be having the storms to the northwest be stronger than they are. HRRR looks good right now. Just depends on how fast this stuff clears out what will verify.

[jhamps10]

If the warm front isn't north of I 20 then I'd be shocked imo with how humid and moist it is... If we can get these clouds to clear today could be very interesting, especially if the line comes throu in Rush hour

[bubba hotep]

Warm front did move back south, but looks to start returning north again, guess on radar just row of counties south. The complex south has been weakening and isn't that substantial to hinder return flow that long and if anything may work atmosphere over down there somewhat to temper development until much later. Keeping fingers crossed this pans out today.

My thoughts as well, plus dynamics should be much better this afternoon. It won't depend so much on surface heating to get storms going but lack of surface heating could certainly limit the potential.

[NTXYankee]

My thoughts as well, plus dynamics should be much better this afternoon. It won't depend so much on surface heating to get storms going but lack of surface heating could certainly limit the potential.

I think the opportunity might be better today for some sun, looking at satellite. Flights have switched direction at DFW so warm front must be coming through landing from the north now. Have the day off, had it scheduled for a while so nice treat if we get some good storms.

[tornadoguy11]

I have started my vacation and what a start to my vacation to get to chase.

[Roy]

Looks like the back line of storms is moving more east, so hope that comes through quickly this morning to clear things out. Some kind of boundary moving northwest, maybe an outflow boundary, that with our luck will destroy our chances.

[bubba hotep]

More showers popping up across DFW...

[NTXYankee]

Looks like the back line of storms is moving more east, so hope that comes through quickly this morning to clear things out. Some kind of boundary moving northwest, maybe an outflow boundary, that with our luck will destroy our chances.

There is a boundary, actually there a several wandering around moving north. I would probably want these today as they are moving north rather than south.

[jhamps10]

More showers popping up across DFW...

Yeah.. At least the weathermen this time said that this could happen and ruin storm threats.. Unlike Wednesday..

[ams30721us]

 

 

A warm front is moving north across the area this morning. That is bringing us the scattered showers and thundershowers for now. 

The front will continue to lift towards the northeast this morning and be north of the area by later this afternoon.

 

South of the front you can see skies clearing out, and that will allow for some unstable air to begin working it's way in for the afternoon. The Upper low to the west will then work east this afternoon with the cold pocket aloft, strong upper level winds, and mix with that sunshine and dryline working east to spark off strong to severe storms.

 

 

[jm1220]

Clearing out slowly in Austin after the rain early this morning. Really hoping to see a few hour period of good sun to destabilize things today, yesterday had no chance given we were socked in with low clouds all day with only a few breaks later in the day.

[bubba hotep]

Skies look to be clearing pretty rapidly across C Texas and current DFW storms are lifting N/NE pretty rapidly. We might actually get sun in here in a few hours?

[jhamps10]

Skies look to be clearing pretty rapidly across C Texas and current DFW storms are lifting N/NE pretty rapidly. We might actually get sun in here in a few hours?

I will say this, here on the SW side of the metro the skies brighten up quite a bit when we aren't getting downpours, that has my optimism up a bit when it comes to afternoon sunshine.. We get that with the already high humidity then I think somewhere along i35 is going to have possibly a tornado or 2 to deal with

[Roy]

Wonder if Waco will be ground zero again like all week.

[jhamps10]

Wonder if Waco will be ground zero again like all week.

Wow Debbie downer... This is the kind of day that if it develops you don't really wanna be ground zero..

[NTXYankee]

Being that this is a warm front and not the typical MCS moving through the air south of us is unstable and as the sun works on it will become even more unstable and bringing it north as it goes. It will certainly feel more humid once the sun does peak out after this dumping we just got. I don't see this being a negative factor I think southern Oklahoma down to central Texas are very much in play still this afternoon. The system slowed down and dryline will be west several counties by peak heating.

[Roy]

Wow Debbie downer... This is the kind of day that if it develops you don't really wanna be ground zero..

True. I don't want tornadoes over DFW! I do hope the worst stays away if it becomes that kind of day. And it has a "feeling" about it that could be bad somewhere.

[jhamps10]

True. I don't want tornadoes over DFW! I do hope the worst stays away if it becomes that kind of day. And it has a "feeling" about it that could be bad somewhere.

Yeah I got that feeling in my toes with how humid it was even before the warm front moved through that someone will have a bad day today hope my gut feeling is wrong though

[jhamps10]

In fact were already getting the sun peeking through the clouds here in SW ft worth from time to time, idk I hope my feeling is wrong but I just have a bad feeling about this afternoon/evening

[bubba hotep]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX. WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR. THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

[jm1220]

Clouds are building back in from the southwest. If this socks us in again today I don't see much chance for major activity this far south. We need more breaks in the clouds.

[Quixotic1]

Bubba beat me to it.  Our first TW of the year.  

 

Interesting setup with the retreating warm front.  

[Roy]

Still decent clearing to the southwest. FW is just getting cloudy again due to the last of the storms. It appears the other stuff is heading more northerly and will leave an area just west of DFW and especially SW in the clear to warm up with some sun.

 

SPC seems to think in the MD that the existing storms will gradually intensify out west and become surface-rooted over time.

[BlizzardWx]

Still decent clearing to the southwest. FW is just getting cloudy again due to the last of the storms. It appears the other stuff is heading more northerly and will leave an area just west of DFW and especially SW in the clear to warm up with some sun.

 

SPC seems to think in the MD that the existing storms will gradually intensify out west and become surface-rooted over time.

That won't take much with a pretty unstable atmosphere as it is. Looks like the combination of surface heating and an increase in large scale ascent from the approaching vortmax and associated jet should do the trick.

[jhamps10]

Right as the storm ended the sun started peeking through and the clouds are already thinning here in south ft worth

[bubba hotep]

Still cloudy here in downtown Dallas but breaks in the clouds aren't too far SW based on satellite.