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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Well, there isn't an upstream MCS to roll through in the morning hours and stabilize everything but radar returns down south seem to indicate that there is a vigorous pulse coming out of Mexico tonight. Those are always poorly sampled and storms spreading in from the SW will work just as well to stabilize things for tomorrow :lol:

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Morning rain again but this could acactually make things worse today, svr weather wise. Will the warm front lift north today and clear the DFW area? It looks like this morning's storms may have pushed it back south or at least stalled it. Dry line looks to be far enough west to keep all of the DFW area in play, if there is adequate destabilization this afternoon.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Morning rain again but this could acactually make things worse today, svr weather wise. Will the warm front lift north today and clear the DFW area? It looks like this morning's storms may have pushed it back south or at least stalled it. Dry line looks to be far enough west to keep all of the DFW area in play, if there is adequate destabilization this afternoon.

Warm front did move back south, but looks to start returning north again, guess on radar just row of counties south. The complex south has been weakening and isn't that substantial to hinder return flow that long and if anything may work atmosphere over down there somewhat to temper development until much later. Keeping fingers crossed this pans out today.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

NAM seems to develop further south/west than DFW but also seems to maybe slightly be having the storms to the northwest be stronger than they are. HRRR looks good right now. Just depends on how fast this stuff clears out what will verify.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Warm front did move back south, but looks to start returning north again, guess on radar just row of counties south. The complex south has been weakening and isn't that substantial to hinder return flow that long and if anything may work atmosphere over down there somewhat to temper development until much later. Keeping fingers crossed this pans out today.

My thoughts as well, plus dynamics should be much better this afternoon. It won't depend so much on surface heating to get storms going but lack of surface heating could certainly limit the potential.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
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My thoughts as well, plus dynamics should be much better this afternoon. It won't depend so much on surface heating to get storms going but lack of surface heating could certainly limit the potential.

I think the opportunity might be better today for some sun, looking at satellite. Flights have switched direction at DFW so warm front must be coming through landing from the north now. Have the day off, had it scheduled for a while so nice treat if we get some good storms.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Looks like the back line of storms is moving more east, so hope that comes through quickly this morning to clear things out. Some kind of boundary moving northwest, maybe an outflow boundary, that with our luck will destroy our chances.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Looks like the back line of storms is moving more east, so hope that comes through quickly this morning to clear things out. Some kind of boundary moving northwest, maybe an outflow boundary, that with our luck will destroy our chances.

There is a boundary, actually there a several wandering around moving north. I would probably want these today as they are moving north rather than south.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

image.jpg

 

 

A warm front is moving north across the area this morning. That is bringing us the scattered showers and thundershowers for now. 

The front will continue to lift towards the northeast this morning and be north of the area by later this afternoon.

 

South of the front you can see skies clearing out, and that will allow for some unstable air to begin working it's way in for the afternoon. The Upper low to the west will then work east this afternoon with the cold pocket aloft, strong upper level winds, and mix with that sunshine and dryline working east to spark off strong to severe storms.

 

 
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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Skies look to be clearing pretty rapidly across C Texas and current DFW storms are lifting N/NE pretty rapidly. We might actually get sun in here in a few hours?

I will say this, here on the SW side of the metro the skies brighten up quite a bit when we aren't getting downpours, that has my optimism up a bit when it comes to afternoon sunshine.. We get that with the already high humidity then I think somewhere along i35 is going to have possibly a tornado or 2 to deal with

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Being that this is a warm front and not the typical MCS moving through the air south of us is unstable and as the sun works on it will become even more unstable and bringing it north as it goes. It will certainly feel more humid once the sun does peak out after this dumping we just got. I don't see this being a negative factor I think southern Oklahoma down to central Texas are very much in play still this afternoon. The system slowed down and dryline will be west several counties by peak heating.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Wow Debbie downer... This is the kind of day that if it develops you don't really wanna be ground zero..

True. I don't want tornadoes over DFW! I do hope the worst stays away if it becomes that kind of day. And it has a "feeling" about it that could be bad somewhere.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
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True. I don't want tornadoes over DFW! I do hope the worst stays away if it becomes that kind of day. And it has a "feeling" about it that could be bad somewhere.

Yeah I got that feeling in my toes with how humid it was even before the warm front moved through that someone will have a bad day today :( hope my gut feeling is wrong though

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

CDXqCNGWMAApNTV.png

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX. WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR. THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Still decent clearing to the southwest. FW is just getting cloudy again due to the last of the storms. It appears the other stuff is heading more northerly and will leave an area just west of DFW and especially SW in the clear to warm up with some sun.

 

SPC seems to think in the MD that the existing storms will gradually intensify out west and become surface-rooted over time.

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BlizzardWx

BlizzardWx

Posted
Posted

Still decent clearing to the southwest. FW is just getting cloudy again due to the last of the storms. It appears the other stuff is heading more northerly and will leave an area just west of DFW and especially SW in the clear to warm up with some sun.

 

SPC seems to think in the MD that the existing storms will gradually intensify out west and become surface-rooted over time.

That won't take much with a pretty unstable atmosphere as it is. Looks like the combination of surface heating and an increase in large scale ascent from the approaching vortmax and associated jet should do the trick.

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