Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[cstrunk]

The outflow boundary looks to have finally stalled south of DFW near Waxahachie.  Further east the outflow boundary is still advancing southeast and is nearing Longview and is just a little north of Shreveport.

[jhamps10]

Is the boundary moving back north some??? Looking at fwd on radar scope you see what appears to be a stationary line near benbrook... Smit is cloudy here at the office but no rain.. Looks odd on radar

[cstrunk]

Is the boundary moving back north some??? Looking at fwd on radar scope you see what appears to be a stationary line near benbrook... Smit is cloudy here at the office but no rain.. Looks odd on radar

 

Yes, it's starting to a bit.

[Roy]

Really sharpened up on radar.

[NTXYankee]

I really don't see that MCS making it this far, still a brisk NE wind here. If anything I see it moving further south and screwing us over tomorrow which leaves Friday and that doesn't even look impressive. 3 days of severe storms talked up and we may not see 1 out of it, welcome to North Texas.

[Roy]

They are really talking it up, but it's not very big yet and could easily go a county or two south instead of hitting DFW.

[NTXYankee]

Well according to radar we just had another outflow boundary move through, where the heck did this one come from, lol. Oh I give up, outflows are becoming just as bad as caps around here.

[Quixotic1]

Well according to radar we just had another outflow boundary move through, where the heck did this one come from, lol. Oh I give up, outflows are becoming just as bad as caps around here.

Sometimes it's the only mechanism for initiation, especially when fronts stop coming through in late spring. The one from earlier seems to be doing pretty well for folks in the southern part of the CWA.

[Roy]

SPC lowering risk for DFW and also pushing it south from the OK border. Not looking good despite all the talk of that cluster making it to DFW.

 

If that doesn't get here, it doesn't look great tomorrow or really even Friday anymore at least on the convective models...don't know enough to really say differently.

[jhamps10]

I'm gonna say it right now... Congrats to DFW weathermen for overhyping as usual... for a market who doesn't go gangbusters over severe weather they sure love to overhype it... I fear when there is a real threat.. cry wolf will set in

[Quixotic1]

While the results haven't been great, the threats have been more numerous than the previous three years. I think the window will be open later this year, and our prime window may be In May.

[Msalgado]

Followed the cell near Gainsville for a couple of hours tonight.  Never looked all that great, but it was still a fun chase.

[jhamps10]

At least on the bright side, we can say we had yet another severe thunderstorm watch in dfw....

[cheese007]

Nice light show off to my West atm. Really beautiful cloud to ground strike just a few minutes ago

[NTXYankee]

At least on the bright side, we can say we had yet another severe thunderstorm watch in dfw....

lol now if we can just get stuff to materialize in those watches and move through the area. We did Saturday but would prefer more than a one time event.

[Roy]

Well, I used to think winter forecasting was hard. But, severe weather isn't much easier. Pretty much everybody was wrong except that we did get something overnight, though the part that got northern Tarrant looked pretty narrow from FB radar posts around 3 a.m. Just like some models showed, the heavier stuff was right south of the Red River.

 

FWD indicates concern over how much destabilization will occur over DFW, and with that "if" mention, definitely not going to get excited for today no matter what models show, which wasn't impressive yesterday. If it happens, great. But, no use being obsessed with all the data today...

[bubba hotep]

We got a solid soaking early this morning but nothing crazy.  SPC expanded the "Slight" are east to include all of the DFW area for today:

 

 

Yesterdays (bust?) validation and progression from @jimmyc42

 

[jhamps10]

We got a solid soaking early this morning but nothing crazy. SPC expanded the "Slight" are east to include all of the DFW area for today:

Yesterdays (bust?) validation and progression from @jimmyc42

Maybe a bust locally but I dont see it being a bust

Overall from looking at those maps

[bubba hotep]

Maybe a bust locally but I dont see it being a bust

Overall from looking at those maps

Yea, those storms coming out of the Panhandle just didn't have much upscale growth and nevered matured into a svr mcs .

[Roy]

Quite foggy this morning....not going to help today any, that's for sure. Quite thick cloudcover.

[NTXYankee]

Quite foggy this morning....not going to help today any, that's for sure. Quite thick cloudcover.

Should help decrease mixing though of dewpoints but should hopefully clear up soon.

[jhamps10]

Foggy, misty... I just don't see how storms could develop in this atmosphere today...

[Quixotic1]

Foggy, misty... I just don't see how storms could develop in this atmosphere today...

We had an outbreak in 2012 with conditions like this.

[jhamps10]

What a difference 90 minutes makes... Now it's broken sunshine and it feels VERY humid outside in south ft worth

[NTXYankee]

What a difference 90 minutes makes... Now it's broken sunshine and it feels VERY humid outside in south ft worth

That is good to know, was wondering if the clouds were breaking up or not when I looked at the satellite, still cloudy here by DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Holding out hope that the boundary that has been hanging out across the DFW area will continue to lift north. It looks like areas south of it have a decent shot of seeing some storms. Storms should fire off to our SW and move NE towards DFW, but will they hold together and how far north will they get? 

[NTXYankee]

Well this system has certainly been a disappointment to many of us so far. I see we are enhanced again for tomorrow but if central and south Texas have their way they'll probably crush our chances then too.

[Roy]

Tomorrow has promise, and it seems the models keep the front moving slowly enough it won't race east of us before things develop.....right now. Will see...this pattern of lows coming across can't go on forever, and at some point a high will stop our rain, so we need to get some good stuff when we can!

[1900hurricane]

Dewpoints aren't going to be a problem anytime soon.

 

[NTXYankee]

Dewpoints aren't going to be a problem anytime soon.

Dewpoints look really good. So tomorrow you guys be nice and share the moisture return for storms, let them pop up here move through then your turn lol.