Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[jhamps10]

Kinda wonder what the stuff down by Brownsville is going to do with moisture flow etc....

[Quixotic1]

Winds northerly in Plano.  

[Smokey_mountain_vols]

Not liking that boundary... hope it doesn't get hung up across the northern DFW area. Would really prefer it to push south of us keeping the tornado threat out of MBY.

I'm hoping the dry line out to the west pushes through past Tulsa before Friday afternoon. It may push through that morning which would make things a little less hectic for me. Although the worst stuff is gonna get southeast Kansas by the looks of it.

[jhamps10]

So now we'll get to see just what cbs11 calls a weather alert day... Wonder what the heck that means that they've been hyping about for a month now lol

[Indystorm]

SW wind at Granbury...north at DFW.  I think that nearby boundary as it wavers this afternoon and evening is going to provide quite an interesting focus for all of you in the metroplex.  Stay safe and informed.

[Roy]

Was N briefly but still mostly S in North FW based on the school flag anyway.

[NTXYankee]

North here at DFW flights taking off north and winds are gusty from the north as well. It has to be parked somewhere in the metroplex but hard to tell. Can outflows switch direction and head back north?

[radarman]

North here at DFW flights taking off north and winds are gusty from the north as well. It has to be parked somewhere in the metroplex but hard to tell. Can outflows switch direction and head back north?

 

Looks like the boundary is near I20

 

[cstrunk]

Sunny, warm, and feels muggy in Tyler.

 

You can watch the outflow boundary moving steadily southeast through DFW right now on radar. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FWS-N0Q-1-24 Looks like it is approaching I-20.  It will be interesting to see how far south and east the boundary progresses and if new storms initiate along the boundary this afternoon.

 

Based on the movement of the boundary, I would agree that the enhanced risk area needs to be nudged southward.

[cstrunk]

The short range models nailed the south Texas supercell threat.  Hopefully those southern storms don't choke off any moisture for northern areas.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0417.html

[jhamps10]

Looking at this I almost bet that the tornado risk goes way down in DFW unless the boundary Happens to reverse course imho

[Smokey_mountain_vols]

Looking at this I almost bet that the tornado risk goes way down in DFW unless the boundary Happens to reverse course imho

Can you answer a question for me?

[Roy]

Yeah it's blowing through DFW....they will need to up the risk to the south.

[Roy]

This 11 a.m. NWS update seems likely to bust, if I am correct that storms would fire on the warmer southern side, correct?

 

"OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT STORMS WILL

INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY." Looks like two counties south may get slammed instead.

[jhamps10]

Can you answer a question for me?

Sure

[Smokey_mountain_vols]

Sure

I live in Tulsa and was wondering, on a scale of 1-10 how screwed am I on Friday?

[vwgrrc]

This 11 a.m. NWS update seems likely to bust, if I am correct that storms would fire on the warmer southern side, correct?

 

"OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT STORMS WILL

INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20

CORRIDOR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY." Looks like two counties south may get slammed instead.

A bit confused, so the tornado risk is low for north of the boundary? but the enhanced risk area should also be north of the boundary?

[cstrunk]

A bit confused, so the tornado risk is low for north of the boundary? but the enhanced risk area should also be north of the boundary?

 

He is saying that the NWS should probably adjust the wording for location.  The highest tornado risk will be along and south of the boundary.  There will be lower instability on the north side of the boundary.

 

And honestly I agree with regards to potential and boundary movement.  If the boundary continues moving south it will not be as favorable as if it stalls out or begins lifting back north.  It seems as if it's slowing down some, and I think it will stall just south of DFW and I-20.

[jhamps10]

I live in Tulsa and was wondering, on a scale of 1-10 how screwed am I on Friday?

I have no clue, I haven't looked at friday, I barely had time to look at today really

[Santa Clause]

Threat definitely seems to be southern burbs/exburbs with current layout. Am I looking at this correctly?

[Roy]

Thanks cstrunk. The HRRR does have some interesting potential late tonight for us based on a Skywarn TX post.

 

Edit: Steve McCauley says boundary still expected to stall and then move north at some point.

[aggiegeog]

A good deal of sun has allowed temps to reach 80 here though the dp is only 61 which will limit the threat some. Around here I am thinking late evening will be the time to watch for the strongest storms.

[jhamps10]

We're in bright sunshine in ft worth now

[cstrunk]

The boundary has moved farther south and now extends from near Texarkana to south of I-20 in DFW.  Hasn't stalled yet.  There's a region of lower dewpoints in East Texas.  Mid 60's dewpoints are trying to make their way north but it seems that the southern storms are robbing some and some may be mixing out.

[Quincy]

HRRR is firing convection too early in the TX panhandle. Nothing showing up on radar yet.

[bubba hotep]

Storms firing out between Brownwood and San Angelo went up quick. Already svr warned.

Skies have cleared out here in downtown Dallas and winds have shifted around and are now out of the E/ESE.

ETA: Storms going up just N. of Clovis in the far western edge of the Watch

[1900hurricane]

Storms have initialized on the dryline just now.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Quincy]

Dew-points in the western portion of the Tornado Watch are still in the low to mid-50s. Expect the tor threat to wait a few more hours until storms move into an area with lower LCLs and better moisture inflow.

[Quixotic1]

The unusual NW to SE Tornado Watch.........

[NTXYankee]

Winds must have turned more south now a bit more muggy and flights are taking off south again at airport and landing from north. Still on fence with everything working out though.