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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

So 7 years since the last Texas hurricane... not much else to talk about right now. Maybe a new thread once we get to 100 pages?

What was that? Ike? I'm not a big fan of hurricanes landing in Tejas. It seems like the winters afterwards are worse than usual. But, I've got no data to back me up. Sounds like I gave myself a project.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
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What was that? Ike? I'm not a big fan of hurricanes landing in Tejas. It seems like the winters afterwards are worse than usual. But, I've got no data to back me up. Sounds like I gave myself a project.

 

Ike was back in September of 2008. I know we've had a few systems since than but I don't believe any have reached hurricane strength. I bet that changes this year. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
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So 7 years since the last Texas hurricane... not much else to talk about right now. Maybe a new thread once we get to 100 pages?

We are in my least favorite Texas season, though I am going back home to Ohio the week of the 20th so hopefully will see some storms while there.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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PDO came in at 2.35 making 2016 the 1st time March, April and May came in over 2. Only other years close are '40, '41, '83, & '87. The only Nina was '83/84 - that Texas winter was drier than normal but not crazy dry and was colder than normal.

Also, it looks like we need a weak Nina if there is any chance to avoid another disaster of a winter.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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PDO came in at 2.35 making 2016 the 1st time March, April and May came in over 2. Only other years close are '40, '41, '83, & '87. The only Nina was '83/84 - that Texas winter was drier than normal but not crazy dry and was colder than normal.

Also, it looks like we need a weak Nina if there is any chance to avoid another disaster of a winter.

83-84 was awesome. Here's December from ncdc. If I'm wrong to post this, mods let me know....post-6527-0-98715000-1465619484_thumb.jp
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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
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Here is one way to look at the Summer. Oni value in 2016 for MAM came to 1.1. Most similar years:

 

1940 1941 1958 1969 1983 1987 1992 1998

 

PDO over 1.5 in MAM:

 

1936 1940 1941 1983 1984 1986 1987 1996 2015

 

AMO (esrl Kaplan) of 0.2-0.3 in MAM:

 

1932 1933 1938 1942 1952 1953 1961 2006

 

Seems to favor a cold/wet September in all three cases for New Mexico

 

 

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UoscscI.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Nice looking meso low off to the west.

 

Sure is! This image is from a few hours ago:

 

CkxS-XjWgAAPWlu.jpg

 

This is turning out to be a more interesting weekend than the models were showing just a couple of days ago. Plenty of storms yesterday and now it looks like a nice cluster of storms is forming across DFW this afternoon. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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Sure is! This image is from a few hours ago:

CkxS-XjWgAAPWlu.jpg

This is turning out to be a more interesting weekend than the models were showing just a couple of days ago. Plenty of storms yesterday and now it looks like a nice cluster of storms is forming across DFW this afternoon.

Thanks for the pic! I'm terrible at posting links etc when I don't have my readers on. It had an almost mini tropical look about it on radar when I posted it.

I just did the yard in record time while a cell was heading in. Just got her done.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Looks like we might get some unexpected heavy rain out this:

 

mcd0339.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0339
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
518 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 122115Z - 130030Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE FOCUSED AND EXPANSIVE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FLASH FLOODING IS GRADUALLY GOING TO BE A CONCERN TOWARD AND AFTER
00Z.

DISUSSION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED MCV IS SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
DALLAS/FORTH-WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MORNING CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN OK HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THERE IS ALREADY SOME INTERACTION OCCURRING BETWEEN THE MCV
AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN THE ERUPTION OF CONVECTION JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS AREA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE MCV ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WITH
PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY A BIT FURTHER...AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE
MCV AND CLASHING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE EXPANSION OF NEW CONVECTION THROUGH THE
LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/HRRRP AND 12Z NSSL-WRF TEND
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVERALL...BUT
THEIR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN SUCH A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND THE EXPECTATION OF FAIRLY SLOW CELL MOTION. RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES/HR ARE LIKELY...AND THE THINKING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z FOR SOME AREAS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE
MCV. THIS SAME REGION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AFTER 00Z AS WELL
AS EVENTUALLY THE SAME MCV WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Check this out from FWD AFD:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

 

Otherwise the main forecast challenge is the MCS across the

Wichita Falls area that seemingly has a cloaking device as it has

eluded detection from virtually all model guidance.

 

LOL

 

:lol:  I'm sure they are a bit frustrated after the last few days of the atmosphere throwing curve balls all over the place 

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