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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Some of you from Dallas keep talking about how interesting storms keep missing Dallas, north, south, east, and west. But this is no drought. Dallas-Fort Worth has 5.09" of rain this month, and average is 4.74". Some rain is just miles away from DFW now.

 

I don't think anyone was calling "drought" more like constant lameness :lol: The medium range models advertised several heavy rain events for DFW that always got shunted south in the short range. We seemed to be in a constant state of getting cold pooled from dying MCS or moisture robbed by SE Texas MCS.  

 

Now, NE Texas has a bit more an excuse to complain than the rest of us, May precp:

 

Cjv4sV5UUAA7vav.jpg

 

ETA: Lots of low total days this month

 

Cjz2lbHVEAATCK9.jpg

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Got in a decent MBY chase today, was able to watch the svr warned storm in Collin County go from updraft, to downpour, to warned. 

 

Headed out for the store and spotted this:

 

CjzqgzIUoAAXniW.jpg

 

came out of the store to this:

 

CjzqhSRUoAAR3UP.jpg

 

then finally when warned:

 

Cjz0PtPVEAApJje.jpg

 

I am going to have to get either a small camera that takes good pics or a cell phone that takes better pics :lol:

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Storm total rainfall is getting pretty high near Shepton, Argyle, and McKinney near the metro area, in addition to the flash flood warnings already mentioned in the last post.

 

We are getting hammered here in southern Collin County for sure!

 

Busy day in Texas:

 

Cj0gNTDUoAEq1gW.jpg

 

Newest one for Texas:

 

mcd0279.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0279

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

705 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS...SW ARKANSAS...NW LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 312300Z - 010230Z

SUMMARY...LIMITED WINDOW FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS

ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS

DISCUSSION...MCS ENHANCED S/W CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF SW TEXAS

INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE RE-ENHANCED

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT TREKKED ACROSS SE OK INTO SW AR/NE TX ATTM.

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A REMAINING RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WITH

MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG FROM SE OF THE MCV NEAR INJ TO TXK TO M89

IN SW AR. WELL ORIENTED TO NEARLY 90 DEGREE SURFACE MST

CONVERGENCE EXISTS SE OF THE MCV EXTENDING NE ALONG THE SOUTHERN

EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS AND WITH

LLJ FLOW LESS THAN 20 KTS...PROPAGATION IS FAIRLY SLOW TO SUPPORT

EXTENDED DURATION OF CELLS TO LEAD TO 2-3" TOTALS POSSIBLY GREATER

NEAR CELLS MERGERS (CLOSER TO INJ AS THE MCV TRANSLATES UP THE

OUTFLOW LINE).

ISOLATED CELLS DISPLACED FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAVE BEEN

ABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A SLACKENED FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS ZERO

CELL MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR COMPOUNDED RATES AND HIGHER LIKELIHOOD

FOR FLASH FLOODING SUCH AS NEAR TXK AND NE OF CRS.

HI-RES CAMS LEAD BY THE MORE CONSISTENT VER.2 HRRR CONTINUES TO

SUGGEST THAT LOSS OF DAY-TIME INSOLATION WILL INCREASE INHIBITION

IN THE 01-02Z WITH RAPID REDUCTION OF CONVECTION AND LIKEWISE

REDUCING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

GALLINA

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

My turn to rant about storms missing my area? Haven't had a good storm hit Tyler in a while. We got the same dreary/rainy days that DFW did recently, along with the decaying MCS's destroying the following day. Tonight was another great example of a fairly stout MCS just west evaporating right before it reaches this area.

 

I'd almost take random summertime pop up thundershowers over this trend recently...  :whistle:

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

My turn to rant about storms missing my area? Haven't had a good storm hit Tyler in a while. We got the same dreary/rainy days that DFW did recently, along with the decaying MCS's destroying the following day. Tonight was another great example of a fairly stout MCS just west evaporating right before it reaches this area.

I'd almost take random summertime pop up thundershowers over this trend recently... :whistle:

Agreed, only managed .05" yesterday in Hideaway.
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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Not even an inch where I am in N Fort Worth, but areas to the east got clobbered. At least DFW is finally above normal!  And, all the talk about today being even worse than yesterday....and there is not even a drop of rain anywhere close. Looks to be dry most of today, so that was a massive bust.

 

Will see what tomorrow and Friday brings, but the rains will start to shift south.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Not even an inch where I am in N Fort Worth, but areas to the east got clobbered. At least DFW is finally above normal! And, all the talk about today being even worse than yesterday....and there is not even a drop of rain anywhere close. Looks to be dry most of today, so that was a massive bust.

Will see what tomorrow and Friday brings, but the rains will start to shift south.

I would not be surprised if what we got Tuesday is it. Happens frequently here, they start off great and you think this is how it all sets up and then the rest of the event is a bust.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I would not be surprised if what we got Tuesday is it. Happens frequently here, they start off great and you think this is how it all sets up and then the rest of the event is a bust.

In my mind this wouldn't be a bust. This is a very tricky setup that was always a difficult forecast. With that said, I'm interested in what that feature in the Panhandle does tonight.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Lake Travis rose 1.25 feet so far today and is over 9 ft above full even with the floodgate operations. And storms have been over and very near the lake for the last 1-2 hours, so plenty more water is coming in. Radar is estimating up to 2" already close to the lake. 

 

http://www.kvue.com/news/local/lake-travis-at-115-and-rising/229980237

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Flood Advisory hoisted. Flash Flood Warning probably not far behind for northern Travis and part of Williamson Counties. 

 

Walnut and Bull Creeks are currently under some intense echos, maybe Waller Creek too. These feed through North Austin and Waller Creek through part of downtown. Hopefully this dies down soon, because it won't take a lot for these to flood. 

 

Edit... Flash flood warning at 10:45pm. 

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

unbelievable rates..

 

 

* AT 123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
  FALLEN IN THE WARNED AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY
  STATIONARY OVER I-10 NEAR BAYTOWN.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like a bore of a week for DFW unless you like sunny skies and upper 80s to low 90s. Things look to maybe get  more interesting this weekend into next week and then maybe a cool down in the longer range?

 

DFW is now a couple of inches above normal for the year and has 2.50" already on the books for June. The avg for June is 3.85, so it won't take much to get June above avg. I'm still liking a JJA that is above avg but not sure about temps.  

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