Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

Tomorrow has more of my interest.

 

Yea, today was a long shot but potentially huge CAPE days are always intriguing. 

[bubba hotep]

Maybe something from this area drifts into DFW as it dies later tonight

 

[Quixotic1]

Don't know how accurate the numbers are but looking at the convective parameters from the FWD site and while we don't have 7500 CAPE, much of the area is above 3000. Unfortunately the CIN seems to be around 100 and according to the site, 30 and below would be breakable. Ugh.

[bubba hotep]

Don't know how accurate the numbers are but looking at the convective parameters from the FWD site and while we don't have 7500 CAPE, much of the area is above 3000. Unfortunately the CIN seems to be around 100 and according to the site, 30 and below would be breakable. Ugh.

 

Was just outside with the kids and there looks to still be a decent cap in place. There is an axis of higher theta-e and a corresponding CAPE nose just west of Ft. Worth, that could be the area to watch locally over the next couple of hours. 

[NTXYankee]

So what is the difference between today and tomorrow, tomorrow looks just as uneventful unless you are well west of north texas.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the DFW area is going to end up coming in a few degrees too cool for anything to happen. The HRRR kept trending more aggressive with getting storms into DFW but was constantly running to hot at the surface. Enjoy the storms W. Texas.

 

[bubba hotep]

So what is the difference between today and tomorrow, tomorrow looks just as uneventful unless you are well west of north texas.

 

At least the Euro came in with an honest answer today, keeping all the rain either west or south of DFW. That NE corner of the state can't seem to buy any storms lately. 

[Quixotic1]

At least the Euro came in with an honest answer today, keeping all the rain either west or south of DFW. That NE corner of the state can't seem to buy any storms lately.

It's got potential. As I sit out here grilling some ribeye and sipping on Bushmills, it is like a sauna. The storms off to the west and southwest seem to be keeping their strength up, but i would prefer them congealing into an MCS. That at least would give it a push.

[bubba hotep]

[jm1220]

Nice mammatus showing up in Austin underneath the anvil tops from the storms over the Hill Country. 

[bubba hotep]

Softball size hail out near Hondo, TX!

 

[bubba hotep]

Cells are starting to pop out along 281, maybe one of those can tap the sleeping 6,400+ giant. 

[jm1220]

Softball size hail out near Hondo, TX!

 

It's just been an insane year for hail out west of San Antonio. 

[bubba hotep]

We ended up getting a decent storm this morning. Today looks similar to yesterday but maybe a better chance of storms over night and in the early morning.

 

[bubba hotep]

What is going on?! A storm firing in DFW during the afternoon? 

 

[jhamps10]

What is going on?! A storm firing in DFW during the afternoon?

I didn't believe it when I walked out of the movies, but then I saw a storm developing over downtown ftw!

[bubba hotep]

Pretty explosive updraft, same cell as before

 

[Quixotic1]

Tantalizingly close!

[bubba hotep]

Anvil dominating a clear sky, long time since we've had that in the DFW area

 

 

and 1 sad orphaned anvil

 

[bubba hotep]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292156Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AT
THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD INTO AN AREA THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY MODIFIED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE IN THE
1500-3000 J/KG RANGE. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...THOUGH MODESTLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND MODERATE ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED MULTICELL
MODE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. AT THIS TIME...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/29/2016


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

[cheese007]

Rather impressive looking structures off to both the south and east in addition to what's above us. Lets see what they do

[bubba hotep]

Seen several more failed attempts but this one over downtown Dallas might make it

 

 

Showing up on CASA

 

[bubba hotep]

Watch might be expanded SE towards DFW for upstream cells that are moving our way

 

[Quixotic1]

Progress: storms cutting off flow are popping up closer and closer to us.

[bubba hotep]

Lightning is kicking with this cell!

 

Cool picture from WFAA:

 

[Quixotic1]

Gust front coming through from the SE. Lightning and thunder. Had to send the three year old in as I cook fajitas and roasted corn!

[bubba hotep]

This downpour combined with the morning storm has MBY close to 1" for the day.

[bubba hotep]

[radarman]

Lightning is kicking with this cell!

Cool picture from WFAA:

nice pic

yeah I was pretty surprised to see the initiation near Dallas proper... just doesn't seem to happen too often.

There has been a fair amount of shear evident on the Mesquite radar... storm scale stuff, indicative of good updrafts and maybe some small hail.

The rain is good though... I could see a few nocturnal MCSs in the next week but after that the ridge might dominate for a while.

[bubba hotep]

Another big CAPE day in DFW but today was tapped

 

 

still seeing development even after first round of storms, new updraft nearly overhead and more off to the south