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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

9" of rain last night at the airport.

I know there has been a lot of complaining from the DFW crew about our streak of busted setups but the number of heavy rain events across other parts of Texas lately has been crazy. I saw a graphic the other day showing that May 2015 to April 2016 was the wettest one year period in Texas on record.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

The HRRRs have this dying MCS come back to life as it pushes SE of DFW. We all know what that means.

But it's all good because the 00z Euro is still showing 5-7" of rain for DFW over the next 10 days.

The plug is developing down there now, surprise. When 5-7 actually fall up here I will believe it.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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I have multiple friends in Houston that had flooded homes for the first time ever. One even had moved in just a couple weeks before. It's been crazy. If we had the choice between that and this, I would definitely take this. Just would like another 2-inch rain event.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Wow.   Torcon of 203 for parts of Texas on Tuesday.  Batten down the hatches  :o

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13305204_10153633098403201_3537547077683

He switched north Texas to the amount of subsidence we'd have to overcome to see a severe threat since we've become much more accustomed to that. Funny none the less.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Yes, that's a weak cap at 850mb. These Sharppy soundings show the virtual-temperature based parcel. But, if you just envision this situation with the (normal) temperature based parcel, the parcel would hit the cap and then stall if it wasn't going upward fast enough. This means that a thunderstorm is prevented.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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Yes, that's a weak cap at 850mb. These Sharppy soundings show the virtual-temperature based parcel. But, if you just envision this situation with the (normal) temperature based parcel, the parcel would hit the cap and then stall if it wasn't going upward fast enough. This means that a thunderstorm is prevented.

Thanks for that. Trying to learn on the fly here.

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

Some interesting information from Steve McCauley.  Learn something new everyday

 

 

 

 

 

 

"The question has been asked if the "rain" showing up on radar tonight west of Abilene and even closer to the Metroplex will intensify into storms. I am happy to report those colors you see on the radar are just wind farms like the ones pictured here west of Abilene.

The cap in the atmosphere is currently strong enough that it is bending the radar beams back down to the earth where they are picking up those giant wind turbines and sending signals back to the radar.

This is not storm formation."

 

 

 

 

 

13254440_1186823938006217_47387701156446

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
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Here another update from Steve about the weather today.

 

 

 

 

It is going to be an uncomfortably humid mid to late afternoon on Saturday with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across north Texas and heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. A dryline will move east out of west Texas and will be parked just west of the Metroplex by late afternoon. The atmosphere will be EXTREMELY unstable with 6000 units of energy available for storm development. Typically, only 1000 units or so is all that is needed for severe weather. I have not seen this amount of energy in the atmosphere in a long time, but the data have been predicting this setup for Saturday for over a week now.

Of concern is the fact by late afternoon, the cap will have gone away.

The only thing that might prevent an eruption of damaging hail and wind storms tomorrow is - you guessed it - subsidence!

The problem this time, however, is where will the sinking air come from? There will be no widespread morning showers and storms to produce that sinking air in the afternoon like we had today. We have to rely on the atmosphere as a whole to keep the current process of sinking air intact throughout the entire day tomorrow in order to shut the dryline down.

Check back tomorrow for an update. When the NWS sends up their weather balloon tomorrow morning at 7 AM, we will have a pretty good idea if the sinking air will be sufficient to keep the dryline quiet, or if it will fail and allow explosive development of thunderstorms during the heat of the day.

 

 

 

 

 

13307386_1186792628009348_75134820367058

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