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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Considering the HRRR seems to be on something really good taking that model with a grain of salt, the 4K nam and to some extent the NAM at 18z offer some hope for Thursday and Friday by not providing a southern Texas screw over, here is to hoping they remain under a firm cap.

Yea, the north trend with precipitation placement has been noticeable on the 4k NAM. I've been away from my desktop today, so no Euro data for me yet.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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WT360 (Weather Trends 360) seems to buy a very hot / dry summer for the US, noting a lot of springs in AMO+, PDO+, El Nino to La Nina years have switched from relatively cool/wet in Apr-May to scorching in Summer.

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http://www.agweb.com/blog/better-weather-with-captain-kirk/spring-weather-does-not-predict-summer-weather-/

Interesting, I'm leaning towards treating the Atlantic as -AMO. Cooler and wetter vs. the combo above with the +AMO.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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There go your SE low level flow leeches.

Yep another dud looks to be in the making up here thanks to that unless it developed far enough east to not interrupt flow on backside but our environment is so fragile up this way a water balloon breaking would cause subsidence.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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There go your SE low level flow leeches.

Hopefully, not all bad. Cells are moving more eastward and didn't build all the way to the coast. Surface obs seem to suggest pretty good low level flow and not seeing a lot of east winds on backside. And if SPC Meso can be trusted, environment north of I20 still looks decent. Big question is will there be additional crap or will we see some clearing later this afternoon?

With that said, none of the models are overly encouraging if you want some decent rain. Looks like a win for overcast blah weather again.

ETA: looks like significant back building is starting along with increasing coverage down towards I10. Basically, light rain this morning was the show for DFW :lol:

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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Hopefully, not all bad. Cells are moving more eastward and didn't build all the way to the coast. Surface obs seem to suggest pretty good low level flow and not seeing a lot of east winds on backside. And if SPC Meso can be trusted, environment north of I20 still looks decent. Big question is will there be additional crap or will we see some clearing later this afternoon?

With that said, none of the models are overly encouraging if you want some decent rain. Looks like a win for overcast blah weather again.

ETA: looks like significant back building is starting along with increasing coverage down towards I10. Basically, light rain this morning was the show for DFW :lol:

I don't think it really matters at this point how much sun we get, dew point has crashed by nearly 10 degrees in metroplex thanks to moisture feed being cutoff again by south Texas junk. Unreal that this continues to happen.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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I don't think it really matters at this point how much sun we get, dew point has crashed by nearly 10 degrees in metroplex thanks to moisture feed being cutoff again by south Texas junk. Unreal that this continues to happen.

No worries, the 12z Euro has 5-7" area wide over the next 10 days. Where have I seen that before?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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Multiple tornados...but one really bad one.  Wheeler Ridge area in Bryan hit with roof damage, down trees.  We've been getting trained and the SW flank of the meso was nasty.

Wow, glad you're okay. Looks like that flank is finally retrograding SW towards us. We're primed for action as soon as something can pop. Heat index is currently 102F at Camp Mabry-absolutely disgusting. 

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jm1220

jm1220

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Lol, that blob will probably sit there through tomorrow or a new one will replace it to ruin tomorrow too

Today's Euro gives very generously to TX-north and south through day 10. 

 

But today looks like another one of those rags or riches rain events. A nice group of storms looks to be forming in the western Edwards Plateau by San Angelo, hopefully those can grow legs and nail the I-35 corridor. 

 

Today's just one of those days where I'm dying for some rain to take the edge off the filth that's outside. For all the rain that's nailed people 2-3 counties east of here, I haven't seen one drop yet. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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Today's Euro gives very generously to TX-north and south through day 10. 

 

But today looks like another one of those rags or riches rain events. A nice group of storms looks to be forming in the western Edwards Plateau by San Angelo, hopefully those can grow legs and nail the I-35 corridor. 

 

Today's just one of those days where I'm dying for some rain to take the edge off the filth that's outside. For all the rain that's nailed people 2-3 counties east of here, I haven't seen one drop yet.

Hah, Euro showed that the last time too, it will all end up south of here, I'll be fine if I am wrong but chances are it will change. I really doubt those storms hold together, if the do they'll probably cut southeast before getting here and hit you guys our instability and dew point is in the crap tank thanks to those storms down there.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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My guess is that the clearing skies are because subsidence continues to increase as storms rage on to our SE.

It feels like a cold front came through here, no humidity to speak of. This is extremely frustrating how long those storms have lasted and what damage they have already caused for tomorrow depending on when they finally stop.

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