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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like Mother Nature wants to try and make it interesting for North Texas Wednesday through Friday of this week, Friday being the most intense if the Euro solution right now pans out and doesn't change.

Certainly looks like an interesting week but who knows how it will play out. I've never been able to get in to tracking spring threats like winter threats because they are so frustrating. However, they are more interesting to track in real-time. Let's see how Wednesday looks tomorrow morning and then on Wednesday morning :lol:

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Wednesday and Thursday still have the most potential over Friday due to continued uncertainty. Am a bit concerned about crapvection pushing the boundary on Wednesday too far south but NAM on 06z run kind of backed off a bit so hopefully that trend continues. Thursday highly dependent on what happens Wednesday but plenty of boundaries in the area.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
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Well tomorrow will either turn interesting or bust for the area. Model parameters are impressive here and has some high potential. The area can be known for surprises so we shall see, weak to no cap so we have that going for us.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

NWS certainly ramping up discussions on their FB page when the NWS site is down (I swear, these sites go down all the time...Midland was awful at that especially). Could be interesting. Hope the expected MCS can go further west to impact all of DFW overnight tomorrow.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

NWS certainly ramping up discussions on their FB page when the NWS site is down (I swear, these sites go down all the time...Midland was awful at that especially). Could be interesting. Hope the expected MCS can go further west to impact all of DFW overnight tomorrow.

Yeah the outage is frustrating, hopefully they get it fixed soon, not exactly best timing on that. I noticed models have been ever so slightly slowing down Friday, hopefully we'll see that continue enough to put us in play later on in the afternoon. Would be nice to see 3 days worth of excitement if all this pans out. I don't think we have to worry too much about that complex tonight, now all it needs to do is throw the outflow down this way.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
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Well I was more excited yesterday about the prospects of severe weather than I am today, I see SPC updated their map and took most of us out of the enhanced area and to boot, looks like central and southern Texas get in on the action which usually screws our moisture return up. I would say maybe Thursday and Friday but if things change this much in 24 hours no confidence in the next two days. Hopefully this is not a case of hype it up and nothing happens.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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SPC guts enhanced risk for most people. It appears they think the front will stay to the north too far. Hopefully those storms can help nudge it south. Friday looks pathetic for us based on their latest outlook so we need today.

 

I am guessing they think the complex will form just north of us based on the map, which if the tornado video posted on the severe thread is right likely means we get nothing since the dryline is not expected to produce much. Really don't see much on the models from the dryline.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

HRRR only impressive for Waco and Houston, which may suck our moisture. Tech WRF has a line coming through DFW but any complex forming east of us. For all the hype....not very impressive. Basically nothing dryline except for one storm. But, if that one line is nasty, which it looks to be on the WRF, could still be a bad one.

 

NAM seems to shunt this morning's stuff off to the east too much, so there is hope we can get the MCS over us and not east of DFW perhaps if it's too far east overall.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
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SPC updated and has the ENH risk for the metroplex.   The outflow boundary from the complex in OK has pushed across the Red River and through Wichita Falls.  Given the ESE storm motion would guess that further east it could start approaching Denton.  I think there is still reason for optimism.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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SPC updated and has the ENH risk for the metroplex.   The outflow boundary from the complex in OK has pushed across the Red River and through Wichita Falls.  Given the ESE storm motion would guess that further east it could start approaching Denton.  I think there is still reason for optimism.

 

Hope it slows down.  The cloud cover and possible turnover in the atmosphere would really mess with our dynamics later.  

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Smokey_mountain_vols

Smokey_mountain_vols

Posted
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SPC updated and has the ENH risk for the metroplex. The outflow boundary from the complex in OK has pushed across the Red River and through Wichita Falls. Given the ESE storm motion would guess that further east it could start approaching Denton. I think there is still reason for optimism.

Southeastern Kansas is going to be whipped like cream on Friday.

Today though parts of Texas shall be whipped like cool whip. Idk what's going on Thursday because I haven't bothered to look because it's not gonna be bad in my area until Friday.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Not liking that boundary... hope it doesn't get hung up across the northern DFW area. Would really prefer it to push south of us keeping the tornado threat out of MBY.

Agreed... Especially with the timing looking like it could be in the rush hour too... It's sunny in south ft worth however the clouds from the morning convection in Oklahoma are blocking the sun a bit. Really thinking the next outlook SPC shifts the enhanced risk south a bit more, to cover what it had yesterday afternoon imho

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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Yeah, I don't want a tornado considering we just built our house and moved in last week (nor hail either!) Kind of tough, as I like severe weather, but not severe damage IMBY. But, the wife won't let me chase, so can't get it elsewhere!

 

Stupid question alert, but where is the boundary right now? No obvious line per say...is it the back edge of that cluster of little mini storms in Denton County, or the front edge?

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Yeah, I don't want a tornado considering we just built our house and moved in last week (nor hail either!) Kind of tough, as I like severe weather, but not severe damage IMBY. But, the wife won't let me chase, so can't get it elsewhere!

Stupid question alert, but where is the boundary right now? No obvious line per say...is it the back edge of that cluster of little mini storms in Denton County, or the front edge?

Sagging SE with showers along and behind

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