Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[jm1220]

So much for that-Enhanced risk down to marginal for most of the Austin area now. Clouds seem locked in here and the best dynamics look to be well west of here over the Edwards Plateau. We'll probably get the dying off MCS around midnight or so. 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Well that was disappointing.

[Chinook]

It's 97 with a dew of 72 at KEBG, which is a few miles north of McAllen. I bet you can't wait for that type of summer heat!

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I'd rather pretend that's not even a thing lol

[jm1220]

San Antonio might get hit later tonight with the squall line-looks like it's organizing and heading SE along I-10. It's been quite a severe weather season down there so far. Here so far it's been nothing like last spring-no tornado warnings yet (we had several last year and a few confirmed within city limits and very close to the city), only one or two isolated hail events and only one severe wind event near the airport. 

[jm1220]

Uh oh...

 

Tennis ball sized hail estimated in storm 50 miles west of San Antonio, also near Kerrville which is about 70 miles west of me. Purple hail core on both storms. 

[jm1220]

Still looks like a good hail producer on the SW side of San Antonio right now, and another cell north of San Antonio towards New Braunfels looks to be bowing out, so some strong winds headed that way. 

 

Here it's quite stormy-seeming outside, gusty wind with the frontal passage and rumbles of thunder, but we should have a half inch or so of rain with the stuff north of the big thunderstorm cells and that's it. Austin's relatively blah severe season continues, maybe we can make up for it before the window shuts in a few weeks-month. 

[David Reimer]

Probably a $250+ million hail event just south of San Antonio over the last 90 minutes. 

[jm1220]

Probably a $250+ million hail event just south of San Antonio over the last 90 minutes. 

Depends where. If it was inside of I-410, I'd agree. If it was SW of there, maybe not-population thins out quickly west and southwest from I-410. The north and northeast sides of town towards New Braunfels on I-35 are heavily populated for a while, which made the hail events there this year so bad. 

 

I'm wondering what the wind gusts may have been from the cell north of San Antonio which bowed out pretty well as it came up to I-35. 

[Chinook]

Radar estimates up to 3.90" of rain just south of the I-410 loop in San Antonio. Flash floods reported NE of San Antonio.

[bubba hotep]

Oh look, another batch of storms dying as they move across DFW

[Roy]

For all the talk of all the rain, DFW will likely be entering summer with a rainfall deficit.

[Chinook]

Let me guess it moved it either south, east, or north that always seems to be reality.

You guys seem to have a good weather sense. That value of 3.2" at Dallas never materialized. The DFW rain total has been only 0.87" since May 12. I would expect that is representative of the metro area.

[bubba hotep]

So another May cold front that was supposed to stall across C. Texas is draped along the Texas coast this afternoon while DFW struggles to not set a daily minimum high temp. I'll be surprised if we see much rain north of I20 tonight. These fronts diving all the way down to S. Texas are a major bummer in May.

[bubba hotep]

Woo hoo! 

 

 

The new CASA showing a shower moving my way

 

[bubba hotep]

For all the talk of all the rain, DFW will likely be entering summer with a rainfall deficit.

 

Yea, the pattern has been looking wet but the models seem to keep the heavier rain in the 6 - 10 day range. The 12z Euro is once again showing 10 day totals for the DFW area in the 4-6" range and that would put us above normal. However, DFW is still below normal for now.

 

[bubba hotep]

That PDO value is ridiculous. If you use July-June as a year, these are positive PDO, La Nina years, keep in mind I base La Nina off DJF ONI.

 

1983 (El Nino is Spring to La Nina in Fall, Cold AMO, Positive PDO)

1984 (La Nina, Cold AMO, Warm PDO)

1995 (El Nino in Spring to La Nina in Fall, Warm AMO, Positive AMO)

1938 isn't bad either - hopefully Providence, RI doesn't end up under 12 feet of water...

 

The PDO from July 1983 to June 1984 averaged 1.45, and that was a borderline La Nina winter, with the AMO in a negative era. Can make a case for 1926 too, but it's backwards. 

 

I kind of like things about 1933 (another horrible hurricane year), 2005, 1959, 1926, and 1988 too. 

 

Broadly speaking:

AMO was positive from 1994-, 1926-1962, and negative from 1963-1993, 1898-1925

PDO was positive from 1916-1945, 1976-2005, negative from 1946-75, 2006-

 

I like a blend of 1983, 1995, 1926, 1959, 1938 currently. 

 

Gets you a warm, but no blazing hot AMO, warm PDO, La Nina-ish conditions, and all the years are after or near warm ENSO events (1935-37, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1958-59, 1925-26)

 

I'm currently kicking around '83 and the early '40s. 

[Quixotic1]

59.

[Quixotic1]

I may not know much, but that gap in activity down around Big Spring and I-20? That thing is going to go right over my yard.

[NTXYankee]

Well this was probably the worst outcome of an "active" period we have had. I am getting a rain shower right now so that must be my active minute, lol.

[jm1220]

Flash flood warnings up for Hays and Williamson counties, Onion Creek currently at moderate flood. It's not raining tremendously hard here, but 2-4" of rain falling on saturated ground is running right off. A dozen or so low water crossings here in Austin are closed. 

[bubba hotep]

Well this was probably the worst outcome of an "active" period we have had. I am getting a rain shower right now so that must be my active minute, lol.

This was a pretty big medium range forecasting bust. Last week at this time it looked like the DFW area would be seeing wide spread 4-6" totals after multiple rounds of storms.

[jm1220]

Euro has plenty of rain down here over the next 10 days-the last run printed out 6"+ for many south of Waco on I-35.

[Chinook]

some sort of mesoscale swirl in a squall line SE of Galveston

 

[bubba hotep]

Euro has plenty of rain down here over the next 10 days-the last run printed out 6"+ for many south of Waco on I-35.

It has 6-8" in DFW for parts east of I35. This looks to be more of a typical heavy rain pattern vs. this past sequence. Looks like there is potential for a few big time MCS come through and a number of big CAPE days. I'll be glad to put meger skinny CAPE isentropic driven elevated showers behind us for good

[bubba hotep]

If Thursday looks decent, I might drive out west of DFW and setup shop.

 

[1900hurricane]

I got lambasted by a severe storm at work today. It was during my lunch break, so I was able to get some video clips of it and post it on Twitter.

 

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/734090320216920065

 

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/734169841821569024

[DoctorMu]

I got lambasted by a severe storm at work today. It was during my lunch break, so I was able to get some video clips of it and post it on Twitter.

 

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/734090320216920065

 

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/734169841821569024

 

It was impressive - sideways rain; maybe 45 mph gusts.

 

No hail IMBY, but 3.25 in of rain in about an 70 min.

[raindancewx]

Going to be very interesting to see how the monsoon plays out here. Looks like the last wet August here during a La Nina was in 1999. August has been very dry for much of the last decade, and we tend to get dry Marches when August fails to be wet - so quite curious to see when it all turns around.

[bubba hotep]

Another day and another round of models showing 4-6"+ for the DFW area and yet we are high and dry... if we could only get that model rain to turn into reality.