Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[1900hurricane]

The storms west of KDYX look like they're training and backbuilding. They've got some pretty stout KDPs on them too. I imagine a Flash Flood Warning will likely be coming for that area in the near future.

[Roy]

Close to an inch here based on radar estimates and nearby stations. Can't wait to finally get mine up I've wanted for years. Really drops off in eastern Tarrant though right over the airport of course.

[bubba hotep]

Don't see any signs of a wake low but we are getting some of our strongest winds now that the storm has passed. Gust are very warm as well.

 

It looks like a wake low did end up forming the other night, Chris Robbins posted this summary:

 

 

As far as last night, the storm missed MBY to the south and that was it. The models indicated that we might see a second round of storms with the frontal passage but that never materialized. That setup a pretty tight rainfall gradient across DFW with Tarrant and Dallas county getting hit both nights and parts of Denton and Collin getting shut out both nights. 

[bubba hotep]

Here we go again, another active period for Texas but will there be tornadoes? It looks like there have only been 2 in Texas through the first 12 days of May and typically Texas racks up 40+ in May. So two options, we end up well below or things are about to get active.

[bubba hotep]

12z 4K NAM brings some early morning storms to DFW tomorrow. It's something at least.

[bubba hotep]

There is a watch out with ongoing svr storms but I know everyone is all no tornadoes, no care right now

[Quixotic1]

Going to whiff again. Arrgh.

[bubba hotep]

Going to whiff again. Arrgh.

Nothing here and now we have a stiff north wind...

[Quixotic1]

Nothing here and now we have a stiff north wind...

Ostensibly, we are headed for an overrun type situation but I bet that is fools gold. That front was pretty strong.

[Chinook]

Going to whiff again. Arrgh.

You may be sad about not getting an interesting thunderstorm. But if the WPC is correct, Dallas will get over 4" in the next week, the GFS has 3.2" for Dallas. At some point, you might wish it to stop raining.

[bubba hotep]

You may be sad about not getting an interesting thunderstorm. But if the WPC is correct, Dallas will get over 4" in the next week, the GFS has 3.2" for Dallas. At some point, you might wish it to stop raining.

 

12z Euro cut the qpf way back for the DFW area over the next 7 days. It seems like it has been doing some funky stuff with precipitation placement since the upgrade but the 12z EPS seems to support the decrease. Looks like an interesting week might be going lame-o-ville. 

[Quixotic1]

You may be sad about not getting an interesting thunderstorm. But if the WPC is correct, Dallas will get over 4" in the next week, the GFS has 3.2" for Dallas. At some point, you might wish it to stop raining.

I would take whatever. Haha. You have enough rainless summers and you'll take it all. last May was awesome.

[jm1220]

Locally 3" or so of rain in parts of Austin today with stalled storms. Some of the creeks looked angry when the rain finally settled down. 

[NTXYankee]

12z Euro cut the qpf way back for the DFW area over the next 7 days. It seems like it has been doing some funky stuff with precipitation placement since the upgrade but the 12z EPS seems to support the decrease. Looks like an interesting week might be going lame-o-ville.

Let me guess it moved it either south, east, or north that always seems to be reality.

[bubba hotep]

Not seeing anything that justifies 50-60% pops area wide tonight and then see this from FWD: 

 

The general consensus
amongst models is that the best coverage of precipitation will be
tied closely to the warm font. Recent trends in radar are
unimpressive and current PoPs may be overdone. Will keep the
forecast as is and let the evening shift make any fine adjustments
based on radar observations and high resolution model guidance.

 

Sounds like they just punting it and will let the night shift downgrade pops.

[bubba hotep]

The modeled deluge that was supposed to fall down in the vicinity of Corpus and Victoria appears to be slow to form or maybe not at all? Lack of sustained deep convection down that way could certainly increase our chances of rain over the next 24 hours. 

[bubba hotep]

The modeled deluge that was supposed to fall down in the vicinity of Corpus and Victoria appears to be slow to form or maybe not at all? Lack of sustained deep convection down that way could certainly increase our chances of rain over the next 24 hours.

It eventually got going down there with some very impressive totals around the Corpus area this morning.

 

[bubba hotep]

April PDO came in at 2.62, the highest April on record since 1900. There are only a hand full of years that can compare to the March/April combo of 2.40/2.62 and they all look above normal for Texas precipitation during JJA. That is just isolating PDO for those two months and may or may not mean anything moving forward. I'm not sure there are any good analogs for the upcoming PDO/ ENSO/AMO combo. 

[Quixotic1]

What's the AMO projection? +PDO and -ENSO are pretty much gimmes. I will find an analog of hope.

[bubba hotep]

What's the AMO projection? +PDO and -ENSO are pretty much gimmes. I will find an analog of hope.

 

Depends on who you use  Using Gray & Klotzbach would probably be -AMO for this summer.

[bubba hotep]

Euro weeklies keep Texas above normal precip and below normal temps through mid-June. I was bummed we missed out on the rain this weekend but how many times in May are we going to be saying, "if the front wouldn't have dove so far south"

[Quixotic1]

Depends on who you use  Using Gray & Klotzbach would probably be -AMO for this summer.

I will go through my spreadsheet tomorrow. There's gotta be one. Going to look for late 50s early 60s..

  

Euro weeklies keep Texas above normal precip and below normal temps through mid-June. I was bummed we missed out on the rain this weekend but how many times in May are we going to be saying, "if the front wouldn't have dove so far south"

Eventually as the ridges start to bulge, those fronts will hang up. With El Niño, it's probably going to happen later than usual. I do think it pretty much shoots our tornado chances to hell though.

[bubba hotep]

Hmm, maybe we can get a MCS into DFW? Things are looking healthy on radar currently.

[raindancewx]

That PDO value is ridiculous. If you use July-June as a year, these are positive PDO, La Nina years, keep in mind I base La Nina off DJF ONI.

 

1983 (El Nino is Spring to La Nina in Fall, Cold AMO, Positive PDO)

1984 (La Nina, Cold AMO, Warm PDO)

1995 (El Nino in Spring to La Nina in Fall, Warm AMO, Positive AMO)

1938 isn't bad either - hopefully Providence, RI doesn't end up under 12 feet of water...

 

The PDO from July 1983 to June 1984 averaged 1.45, and that was a borderline La Nina winter, with the AMO in a negative era. Can make a case for 1926 too, but it's backwards. 

 

I kind of like things about 1933 (another horrible hurricane year), 2005, 1959, 1926, and 1988 too. 

 

Broadly speaking:

AMO was positive from 1994-, 1926-1962, and negative from 1963-1993, 1898-1925

PDO was positive from 1916-1945, 1976-2005, negative from 1946-75, 2006-

 

I like a blend of 1983, 1995, 1926, 1959, 1938 currently. 

 

Gets you a warm, but no blazing hot AMO, warm PDO, La Nina-ish conditions, and all the years are after or near warm ENSO events (1935-37, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1958-59, 1925-26)

[NTXYankee]

Surprise yet another outflow boundary moves through North Texas this morning. Bring on the death ridge and end this miserable severe weather season. Congrats southern and central Texas again...

[bubba hotep]

Surprise yet another outflow boundary moves through North Texas this morning. Bring on the death ridge and end this miserable severe weather season. Congrats southern and central Texas again...

It really is getting old. A portion of the blame should also fall on the big S. Texas MCS from yesterday.

Sun is out here now. Maybe this morning's MCS died just fast enough to allow atmosphere to recover for some afternoon storms? Hope that we warm quick enough and the front slows down.

[Msalgado]

No one has really mentioned today, but I'm going to head out late this morning toward Brady, TX.  I think there will be a sizeable window before an MCS develops to get on some nice supercells and I love chasing in that part of Texas because the scenery is nice at the edge of the Hill Country.

[radarman]

Surprise yet another outflow boundary moves through North Texas this morning. Bring on the death ridge and end this miserable severe weather season. Congrats southern and central Texas again...

 

It hasn't really been that awful, has it?  Few Bn in hail damage including grapefruits.  Nice supercell right through downtown Ft Worth last week with moderately severe winds.  Couple small tornadoes. 

 

Sure it's not 4/3/12, but that's pretty rare.

[David Reimer]

Eh I almost consider December 26 of last year the 'start' to our season. Combine that with multiple billion dollar events with hail damage and tornadoes and this has been one of the more active springs in North Texas. I will say it was an 'early' season though don't tell folks up in Grayson county that. 

[bubba hotep]

It hasn't really been that awful, has it? Few Bn in hail damage including grapefruits. Nice supercell right through downtown Ft Worth last week with moderately severe winds. Couple small tornadoes.

Sure it's not 4/3/12, but that's pretty rare.

It's not so much the svr wx that I was referring to. We have had several setups that appeared good for heavy rain and storms snuffed out by an overnight MCS. I'm always looking for rain chances this time of year because we all know how interesting the summer is around here