Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

Holy crap! Weather Twitter is unbearable right now.

[Calderon]

Only a few whispy clouds here in downtown right now. It looks like there are two local boundaries mixing around. Maybe a secondary dryline just west of Ft. Worth separating low 70s from mid 60s? And then another area of something along 75?

Multiple subtle moisture and/or air convergence lines just meandering around with no true directional sense.

[bubba hotep]

Riding north on the train and it looks like the cap is holding despite temps reaching the low 90s. Wish FWD would've done a 18z special today.

[Quixotic1]

These things are going to have slow motion and rise and fall on outflow. Normally the way it's oriented, I'd say we have little shot, butt the northern cells seem to have a northerly component. Crossing fingers.

[bubba hotep]

These things are going to have slow motion and rise and fall on outflow. Normally the way it's oriented, I'd say we have little shot, butt the northern cells seem to have a northerly component. Crossing fingers.

And as usual, the HRRR was too aggressive with CI. The last run that I looked at around 19z had storms across DFW by now.

[bubba hotep]

Hail core moving across I20, that's never good.

[radarman]

Cell has developed out ahead, right in SW Ft Worth

[jm1220]

I doubt much makes it this far east. Models seem to be diminishing convection after dark, and the cells are crawling their way east and are barely even in the Hill Country. They definitely seem to be heading more NE than E-Waco and north have a much better shot. Hopefully we salvage something-we need something to take the edge off this humid airmass. 

[Quixotic1]

Got mammatus clouds overhead.

[NTXYankee]

Getting lightning in Coppell area but that storm looks like it's trying to punch through something blocking it.

[bubba hotep]

Got mammatus clouds overhead.

 

 

[Quixotic1]

Ha. Swear you and I took the same

Pics. First one looked like a gravity wave.

[bubba hotep]

Will the storm hold together? Lots of high wind reports coming in with it

 

[bubba hotep]

[Quixotic1]

I doubt much makes it this far east. Models seem to be diminishing convection after dark, and the cells are crawling their way east and are barely even in the Hill Country. They definitely seem to be heading more NE than E-Waco and north have a much better shot. Hopefully we salvage something-we need something to take the edge off this humid airmass.

Gotta think positive. Those things look pretty stout. Might drive an outflow your way.

[bubba hotep]

I never like seeing mammatus because that almost always means we get nothing other than that. But tonight, low clouds are starting to thicken up, some dark towers are visible and lightning is picking up. I think this cell pushes on for a bit more.

[bubba hotep]

Seeing reports that sirens are being set off for high wind.

[Quixotic1]

Missing me to the south. Looks very ominous.

[Roy]

The North Fort Worth sirens went off...after the storm was in Southlake. I swear, they are not the most competent people. I already hate they go off for everything here instead of just tornadoes like when I lived in West Texas and my entire childhood in Kansas. Such an odd thing.

 

But, at least if you are going to get trigger happy with the sirens, do so before the threat is over.

[bubba hotep]

Storm looks to be throwing in the towel and falling apart. Not sure it holds together long enough to make it out this way and may actually miss to the south, if it does make it this far. 

[Calderon]

Storm looks to be throwing in the towel and falling apart. Not sure it holds together long enough to make it out this way and may actually miss to the south, if it does make it this far. 

It looks like they became elevated, at least from my perspective here between Love Field & Uptown. Few CGs, mostly in-cloud lightning.

[bubba hotep]

It looks like they became elevated, at least from my perspective here between Love Field & Uptown. Few CGs, mostly in-cloud lightning.

Yea, I can clearly see the sunset off to the north of the rain shaft but there has been uptick in lightning in the past 5 min.

[Roy]

Amazing orange clouds as the sun set. A lot of cloud to ground here in north Tarrant, but it definitely weakened going east.

[bubba hotep]

Some of the best CtG so far this spring

ETA: we are getting a damn strong soaking out of this

[bubba hotep]

Not my pic but pretty typical of the light show tonight

 

[bubba hotep]

Don't see any signs of a wake low but we are getting some of our strongest winds now that the storm has passed. Gust are very warm as well.

[bubba hotep]

So now on to tomorrow and Thursday 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

SPC shifted the Slight area SE to include all of DFW. Moisture took a hit from the overnight storms and the 12z FWD sounding showed a decent cap in place. It looks like moisture return is already beginning and temps should rise under clear skies. Maybe we see something similar to yesterday evening but with storms moving in from the NW.

[weatherextreme]

Latest from AFD

VFR through the afternoon with few to scattered cu and increasinghigh clouds. A south wind will continue in the 12 to 17 knot rangealong with a few higher gusts.We anticipate that thunderstorms will develop northwest of themetroplex TAF sites late this afternoon along an approaching coldfront. Storms may be a bit slower to develop than most of themodels suggest since low level moisture was temporarily scoured outby evening/overnight convection. The most likely time for impact atthe metroplex terminals will be late this evening generally betweenabout 04Z and 07Z when storms move off of the cold front. Thereshould be a lull in activity overnight until the cold front movesthrough toward sunrise Thursday. The best window of time for stormswith the front will be between 11Z and 15Z at the metro terminalsand Waco between 15Z and 18Z. The passage of the cold front willalso turn the wind to the north at speeds between 6 and 12 knots.MVFR ceilings should return late this evening/overnight at all Northand Central Texas TAF sites and prevail through the morning hoursThursday.

[weatherextreme]

From Dr Forbes

 

 

 

MONDAY 5/16
The potential exists for a substantial severe thunderstorm threat
in the Central and Southern Plains, but computer models differ
enough that I'll hold off on a specific forecast for now.