bubba hotep Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Man, East Texas is getting hammered this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Thunder here a touch NW of Longview just shook a picture off the wall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Possible tornado moving towards Hemphill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Trees down all over Deep Texas apparently, not sure if some from tornado or just high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Last night in Palestine a 64-year-old woman and her grandchildren, aged 6, 7, 8 and 9, all swept away and drown. We measured 6.25" rain starting at 2 p.m. yesterday, ending this morning at 8:30 when we checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Last night in Palestine a 64-year-old woman and her grandchildren, aged 6, 7, 8 and 9, all swept away and drown. We measured 6.25" rain starting at 2 p.m. yesterday, ending this morning at 8:30 when we checked. Hate to hear that. I had heard that there was flooding down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Hate to hear that. I had heard that there was flooding down there.Glad you guys had no issues. We (in White Oak) were just SE of the line spitting off the funnels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 I was about to head home from my son's daycare when the clouds lowered and started rotating so we headed back inside. It started doing widespread damage probably a mile east from where I was though some trees were down to my west also. Suddenlink is down around here and I have seen an image of at least on cell tower down near here so it is making getting additional info more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 What a crazy evening. I was in Big Sandy yesterday afternoon and watched as the main supercell approached the area. I left to go back towards Tyler when it looked like it was going to get too close. I found a decent spot with clearing to watch the storm just to my northwest for a few minutes. You could easily tell it was a beast. Thoughts and prayers for those injured/killed by the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Thoughts and prayers for those injured/killed by the storms. This. Always hate to hear about the aftermath of these events. My stomach still sinks thinking about Dec 26th and driving through far eastern Garland to get on George Bush. It kind of hit everyone in the van at the same time when we were driving around pieces of roofs that had been tossed up on George Bush that people were probably just killed in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Looks like I'm going to just miss seeing some snow falling this time around. However, temps look to rebound into the 60's, so that should make for some nice muddy trail running but there should be some nice packed snow up at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Looks like maybe some elevated non-svr storms for DFW tomorrow evening and then a pretty boring week. Looking out at the long range tea leaves seems to indicate a return to more active weather starting b/w the 8 - 10th of May. Then the remainder of the month could be kind of wild. Obviously, climo plays a big role with May being the biggest tornado month for Texas: But there are reasons beyond climo to think that we will see an uptick in activity after the 1st part of the month. The PNA and NAO both look to go negative after the 1st 10+/- days and the positive phase of each typically favors less tornadoes and that matches up with the anticipated calm start to the month: Then there is the GWO, the GEFS (I don't have a Euro GWO forecast, does anyone know of one out there?) has consistently been too fast at dropping the global AAM and sending the GWO through Phases 8/1/2. It might be believeable this time but is probably still too fast with signs pointing to convection finally shifting to the IO over the next couple of weeks. Then after a period of pretty inactive MJO the models are starting to show some signs that it might be on the move again. Phase 4 can favor above normal CAPE and shear across the southern plains in May. The MJO plays into the GWO but they aren't always necessarily synced up. It will be interesting to see how things play out. If the GEFS is once again too fast with the GWO and the models are correct in bringing the MJO into Phase 4 then there is a chance that could overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Lindale tornado an EF-2 and Harrison Co EF-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 NMME, Cansips, CFS all have NM cold and wet in May. Fingers crossed. Albuquerque looks like it had it's coldest April (by avg highs) since 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Nice little storm this morning had everyone in the house up by 5:30ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Latest info from NWS SHV on Friday's storms is 8 tornados in E TX. 3 EF-2s and 5 EF-1s. The EF-2s were the one which hit the Hibbett Sports in Lindale, a 27 mile long almost 2 mile wide multi vortex tornado which resulted in much damage on the eastern side of Lindale and moved NE into Upshur Co. And the last was near Alto. The EF-1s occurred late Friday night mostly in rural far E TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I tried hard yesterday but the only snow that I saw was well north up towards Lake Peak and the Ski Santa Fe area. It was surprisingly warm yesterday afternoon, even at 10,000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Looks like another round of sloppy dryline setups And here is Mike V's new Index for that time: Of the three days, Tuesday might be the one to watch. The ensembles move the EC trough out and actually have positive height anomalies across the NE for Tuesday. As always, timing and mesoscale questions will remain. And as noted above, the GEFS continues to be too aggressive with the GWO but it does look like convection will return to the IO. Some research suggest that the key will be for the MJO to establish and move into Phase 4 for there to be an uptick in May tornadoes (obviously this is cherry picking indices and there is much more at play). There appears to still be some significant potential for the second half of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I tried hard yesterday but the only snow that I saw was well north up towards Lake Peak and the Ski Santa Fe area. It was surprisingly warm yesterday afternoon, even at 10,000' Looks like the recent snow has melted. I bet it is a sloppy mess above 10,000' especially in the interior of the range off of Highway 518. May and June can sure be muddy with wild swings from 65 degrees to 30 and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Looks like the recent snow has melted. I bet it is a sloppy mess above 10,000' especially in the interior of the range off of Highway 518. May and June can sure be muddy with wild swings from 65 degrees to 30 and snow. Yea, at the point of that pic I was already 6 miles in and at roughly 10,000 ft. From looking at some maps, I would've probably had another 8+ miles to the snow covered peaks that are about 12,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Usually at this time the snow level is around 10 or 10.5k. I have seen 6" of fresh snow at 9k this time of year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Twenty Years Ago...... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=mayfest15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I was thinking FWD might have been too aggressive with the eastward propagation of the dryline on Monday and see they did move it back west with the new graphic. Obviously, lots to workout with storms possible overnight and where does the dryline setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 SPC with slight east of I35 in the D3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Latest from FWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Steve McCauley's latest Showers and a few non-severe rumblers will be making their away across north Texas on and off throughout the day Sunday. Coverage across north Texas will be about 40%. Severe thunderstorms will then fire out to our west and move NE and could clip the western half of the Metroplex Sunday evening. But locations west and northwest of the DFW area are even more likely to see some fairly intense storms by late Sunday afternoon and evening with the highest threat across the western half of Oklahoma and Kansas. Another batch of showers and storms will move into the Metroplex during the predawn hours on Monday and continue into early afternoon. Coverage is expected to be 60% with this batch! And then things turn more interesting. Very unstable air will be over the Metroplex and points east by Monday afternoon. The cap will be weak and breakable. BUT ... sinking air in the wake of the Monday morning/early afternoon rains will also be in place and will try to limit the number of storms that will try to fire on the dryline moving into the Metroplex late Monday afternoon. IF the sinking air can completely dominate, it could be a quiet late afternoon/evening for the Metroplex. BUT ... if the dryline can overcome the subsidence (i.e., sinking air) - even if it is only in one or two places - then severe storms will pop quickly across the eastern half of the Metroplex. Right now the data favor - but do not guarantee - the sinking air to prevail and thus shutting down most - though perhaps NOT all - severe storms locally. We may end up getting one or two rogue storms on the dryline that go severe while the rest of the dryline remains silent. But remember, it is the rogue storm that needs to be watched for severe weather potential since it is not in competition with other storms in the vicinity. This means all the energy in the atmosphere goes into fueling one or two storms instead of an entire line of them. That's what makes isolated storms the ones to watch! They don't have to share the energy supply; they get it mostly to themselves. So we will be watching to see if an isolated storm or two will be able to pop in the Metroplex by late Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, the atmosphere becomes extremely unstable, and the dryline will once again be approaching. So once again we will have to see if the dryline can initiate powerful late afternoon thunderstorms in what should be a weakly capped but very volatile atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Seems like there a lot more questions this go round for the DFW area. I'm not as convinced that we will see the dryline fire as I have been with the last couple of systems. Hopefully, we can get enough elevated and junk convection to get a decent soaking out the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Most of the long-range forecasts I've seen show the US hot in the Summer, though there is some debate as to whether the West will be as hot as the rest of the USA. Weatherbell has NM/TX average (which means hot) as the rest of the country fries, WT360 is similar. NOAA says heat favored everywhere, Larry Cosgrove seems to have the US warm from the continental divide east for just about the whole summer. My theory for this year is July is due to be drier for the SW (we've had 10" of rain in ABQ the last three Julys) with August due to be wetter. We seem to be in the phase of the ocean cycles where August should transition from substantially drier than normal to average or even wetter than normal for a long time. I'm not sure if the flip is tied to the AMO or something similar, but it looks like it is if you take the AMO phases as: ~1895-1925 (cold) ~1926-1963 (warm) ~1964-1993 (cold) ~1994-2020? (warm) Our cold Spring looks like it will verify down here, even with March warm as April and May both look below normal now. The wetness hasn't really shown up for NM, AZ, or Southern CA. I guess my general idea that if May is cold, and June sees the oceans rapidly cooling (offsetting temp gains from the sun) the monsoon is not going to be strong in July. So it will be hot. June may be fairly wet if the MJO cycles back to what it was doing in mid-April, but overall, I think we're due for an average June, hot/dry July, average/wet August, and then a warm/dry Sept. Something like 3.5 inches of rain from June 15 - Sept 30 instead of 4.3 inches which is average. I just can't see the three-year July rainfall (and corresponding cool temps) remaining at record or near levels over a 120 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Latest runs of the HRRR and HRRRx have storms firing out west and growing upscale into a MCS that moves into the DFW area this evening. There is a watch coming for the source area of this evenings potential MCS. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TO N TXCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 081709Z - 081845ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN BY 19Z AND QUICKLYBECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAINCONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE AGITATED CU FIELD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THEHIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND AREA NORTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASINJUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENTCOMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAVING ALREADY ERODED CAPPING SHOULDRESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONGDEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMSTO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGEHAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETEBEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS OR GROWING UPSCALE INTOAN E/NEWD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THISTRANSITION IN STORM MODE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WINDTHREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TXBY 19Z. STORMS MAY NOT INITIATE/MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OFTHE MCD AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT...WATCHISSUANCE MAY BE LATER THAN FURTHER SOUTHWEST...LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Maybe we will warm up a bit this afternoon as some clearing is moving towards I35 in the DFW area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.