Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Roy]

Schools kind of look foolish canceling everything now, but who knew it would be a bust though most info did indicate a line, not tornadic supercells. Just a normal line tonight looks like. Hopefully that will keep hail size down.

[bubba hotep]

Schools kind of look foolish canceling everything now, but who knew it would be a bust though most info did indicate a line, not tornadic supercells. Just a normal line tonight looks like. Hopefully that will keep hail size down.

 

I was in and out of meetings all day today and was actually shocked when I saw that a PDS was issued. However, that line to the west of us does look nasty. 

[bubba hotep]

A 7 for D7? I mean, yes, it's April and, yes, the models are showing western throughing with ridging in the east. However, beyond that there is so much to be resolved before pinning any one day as  the "big" one. It will be interesting to watch things play out over the weekend.

 

At least Mike stayed true to his first call, actually, I think he went to 9? Anyway, just saw this tweet from him highlighted:

 

[raindancewx]

This system definitely has interesting dynamics to it. Lots of clouds I haven't seen out here in a couple years. Not just the majestic lennies and mammatus either...also looking forward to seeing if the European is right about this. These late snows are notorious for interrupting the monsoon if they continue into May, especially if Texas and the Plains/Midwest are wet/cool too.

 

[cheese007]

TorNadu warning for cooke county

[bubba hotep]

TorNadu warning for cooke county

 

One of those front runners finally got rooted, luckily it will run out of room real fast. 

 

[bubba hotep]

This system definitely has interesting dynamics to it. Lots of clouds I haven't seen out here in a couple years. Not just the majestic lennies and mammatus either...also looking forward to seeing if the European is right about this. These late snows are notorious for interrupting the monsoon if they continue into May, especially if Texas and the Plains/Midwest are wet/cool too.

 

 

I'll be out in Santa Fe next week and was kind of thinking that I could get some snow free trail running in. I guess I'll have to adjust my packing plans now. 

[bubba hotep]

We've had a couple of claps of thunder with the passing showers so far this evening. It looks like these little cells are still elevated indicating that the cap never truly busted. 

[radarman]

Cap is weakening but still present.  Also the warm layer has moved up some.  Pretty nice turning of the winds down low, but the meridional flow aloft suggests that anything that busts through completely should form segments quickly.  Still I think the embedded QLCS tornado potential is substantial with that look and a strengthening LLJ.

 

 seems like bust on this bold section... really a fairly unremarkable line compared to many we've seen in the last 8 weeks.  At least so far.  Not a lot of embedded features, nor notable inflow notches, nor signs of strong shear aloft. 

[bubba hotep]

 seems like bust on this bold section... really a fairly unremarkable line compared to many we've seen in the last 8 weeks.  At least so far.  Not a lot of embedded features, nor notable inflow notches, nor signs of strong shear aloft. 

 

I was just thinking the same thing, this really isn't any different that what happened pretty much every other night last year at this time. 

[radarman]

I was just thinking the same thing, this really isn't any different that what happened pretty much every other night last year at this time. 

 

Looking back over the PDS probabilities this is one for the memory banks.  IMBY it's shades of 6/6/10.   But, given what TX has been through wx wise in the last 12 months, it's somewhat of a blessing for sure.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Dallas and Collin won't even get a svr tstorm warning out of this system? 

 

ETA: Sitting out on the back patio having a beer and there really isn't even a light show right now 

[cheese007]

TOG in Denison per Pete Delkus @ WFAA

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/725162003820486656

[Quixotic1]

Got a lot of lightning and rain. Wind was gusty for about 2 minutes but no more than 45 mph IMO.

I'm grateful. The PDS had me looking at April 27, 2011. You start seeing numbers like 95/80% and it's pretty frightening.

[bubba hotep]

Got a lot of lightning and rain. Wind was gusty for about 2 minutes but no more than 45 mph IMO.

I'm grateful. The PDS had me looking at April 27, 2011. You start seeing numbers like 95/80% and it's pretty frightening.

 

You got that right! Just a good ole fashioned gully washer out this way. 

[jm1220]

Maybe out of anyone here I might actually verify some severe conditions. The south end of the line still looks fierce-maybe good for some decent straight line winds-although I'll long be asleep by the time they make it here. 

[NTXYankee]

Well the line of storms reminded me of something we would get in the summer, not much too it. Most of the lightning occurred after the front of the line blew through. Very short morning discussion from FWD, probably want to forget about it, though they did keep steady in their lining out theory. Thursday night will probably be our better of the week, overrunning events tend to outperform here it seems. Friday though seems to be a crap shoot depending on where the warm front goes.

[bubba hotep]

Well the line of storms reminded me of something we would get in the summer, not much too it. Most of the lightning occurred after the front of the line blew through. Very short morning discussion from FWD, probably want to forget about it, though they did keep steady in their lining out theory. Thursday night will probably be our better of the week, overrunning events tend to outperform here it seems. Friday though seems to be a crap shoot depending on where the warm front goes.

 

I haven't really had the time to look at the coming days in any detail but stated last week that I felt that our best chances for tornadoes would not be with this first system. I'm still thinking that will be in a week or so but that isn't really a big leap considering the time of year. 

 

New D2:

 

 

 

 

and D3:

 

[jm1220]

Seeing some pictures of tree damage on the north side of town and northern suburbs from the overnight storms. It wasn't bad at all where I am-Camp Mabry only had gusts to 30 mph or so. 

[bubba hotep]

FWD confirmed 3 tornadoes today putting us at 10 for the year. The avg is 26 and there were 76 last year.

 

[David Reimer]

Jenny Brown wrote up an excellent article discussing the 'hype or not to hype' scenario yesterday over on our website. Its getting a lot of response over on the social media realms. 

[Quixotic1]

FWD confirmed 3 tornadoes today putting us at 10 for the year. The avg is 26 and there were 76 last year.

So how do they judge if it's straight line winds or a tornado? I've been cynical for a few years now. We had a storm in 08 in the middle of the night. Sirens were going off. I looked out and the trees were snapped off and were whirling around the complex. These weren't saplings but full grown trees. Then there's the video my sons friend took last year. I posted it on here. Power flashes and definitely a tornado. Neither one got the designation. I contacted the NWS about both of them and didn't even get a response. the 08 storm was surveyed and the conclusion was a microburst.

[wildwestpb]

So how do they judge if it's straight line winds or a tornado?

Damage and debris pattern, think blood splatter for a forensic investigator, plus damage done to structures that correspond with real world testing that has been conducted in the NSSL.

[NTXYankee]

NAM still holding it's own with Friday. 4K NAM as well but if they are right I believe like always they are too far east with dryline.

[NTXYankee]

Jenny Brown wrote up an excellent article discussing the 'hype or not to hype' scenario yesterday over on our website. Its getting a lot of response over on the social media realms.

Nice read David and just like in many things you are damned if you do and damned if you don't with weather forecasting. Mother Nature does what she wants and remains mysterious no matter how much science thinks it caught up, that is certainly what makes it fascinating.

[bubba hotep]

NAM still holding it's own with Friday. 4K NAM as well but if they are right I believe like always they are too far east with dryline.

 

It is probably too far north with the warm front given that there will be persistent precipitation. Overall, it looks like a messy setup but we saw plenty of those produce last year. However, upper level flow looks better than on Tuesday and SPC mentioned that they might need to upgrade a portion of the area. So another Mod come Friday?   

[Chinook]

The 00z GFS and NAM have 50kt to 85 kt winds (500mb to 300mb) that will move into the warm sector Friday. Assuming much of this region becomes moderately unstable, that's a pretty dangerous combination. The only thing missing for a major tornado threat would be high SRH values.

[NTXYankee]

It is probably too far north with the warm front given that there will be persistent precipitation. Overall, it looks like a messy setup but we saw plenty of those produce last year. However, upper level flow looks better than on Tuesday and SPC mentioned that they might need to upgrade a portion of the area. So another Mod come Friday?

FWD thinks it should make it to Red River by morning, but that will be critical to be able to destabilize. Setup does look better than Tuesday and yes this area tends to do better with setups like this. They put us in the hatched region so you may be right. Strong SRH looks to be present.

[bubba hotep]

HRRRx brings storms straight up I35 overnight, so maybe some elevated hailers for the area? I could really do without anymore hail this year  Then it looks to keep the warm front right along the Red River tomorrow morning.

 

The 12z 4k NAM is really a non-event around the DFW area keeping most of the storms to our north and then east tomorrow afternoon. It looks to surge the warm front well into Oklahoma tomorrow evening.