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Central PA and the fringes - Spring


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Heads up to the Wilpo gang in here.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
 
546 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
 
 
 
PAC081-142200-
 
/O.CON.KCTP.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150614T2200Z/
 
LYCOMING PA-
 
546 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
 
 
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR
 
SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING COUNTY...
 
    
 
AT 545 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
 
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
 
MONTOURSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
 
 
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 
MONTOURSVILLE...HUGHESVILLE...LOYALSOCKVILLE...MUNCY...PICTURE ROCKS
 
AND WILLIAMSPORT AIRPORT.
 
 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
 
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
 
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
 
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
 
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
 
 
 
&&
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4117 7673 4119 7682 4126 7695 4133 7692
 
      4130 7665 4117 7672
 
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 287DEG 21KT 4128 7689 
 
 
 
$$
 
 
 
WATSON
 
 
 
 
======================================================================
 
 
480 
 
WFUS51 KCTP 142124
 
TORCTP
 
PAC081-142200-
 
/O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0007.150614T2124Z-150614T2200Z/
 
 
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
 
TORNADO WARNING
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
 
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
 
 
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A
 
 
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
 
  CENTRAL LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
 
 
 
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT
 
    
 
* AT 523 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
 
  OVER COGAN STATION...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
 
 
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 
  MONTOURSVILLE...WILLIAMSPORT...COGAN STATION...HUGHESVILLE...
 
  LOYALSOCKVILLE...MUNCY...GARDEN VIEW...PICTURE ROCKS...SOUTH
 
  WILLIAMSPORT...LITTLE LEAGUE WORLD SERIES COMPLEX AND WILLIAMSPORT
 
  AIRPORT.
 
 
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 180 FROM MILE MARKERS 9 TO 26.
 
 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
 
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
 
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
 
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
 
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
 
 
 
&&
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4133 7664 4117 7672 4117 7683 4130 7713
 
      4138 7707
 
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 287DEG 21KT 4132 7706 
 
 
 
$$
 
 
 
WATSON

 

 

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Lol, just rain up here brotha. Not sure why the warning.

 

There was a bit of a rotation couplet (+45-50kt outboundvelocity and some weak inbound velocity) on radar that prompted the warning from CTP which skirted the north side of IPT as it moved NW to SE. Parameters are generally not supportive for anything other than a very weak and brief spin up with one of these storms this evening, and there wasn't any noteworthy reports from that cell on CTP's Facebook. 

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Hi Guys.  I've temporarily come out of summer hibernation to talk about the upcoming potential excessive precip event from Bill.  Looks like at least 2"+ on the latest NAM.  Anyone care to comment?

 

Also, how much precip have you seen total around your area in the past 6 weeks?  I've had over 4".  It's definitely been wet around here of late, with more on the way the next few days.

 

BTW, I'm definitely NOT 'lovin the 70's dewpoints that have been common over the past few weeks....YUCK!  Can we just fast forward to September please?

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Hi Guys.  I've temporarily come out of summer hibernation to talk about the upcoming potential excessive precip event from Bill.  Looks like at least 2"+ on the latest NAM.  Anyone care to comment?

 

Also, how much precip have you seen total around your area in the past 6 weeks?  I've had over 4".  It's definitely been wet around here of late, with more on the way the next few days.

 

BTW, I'm definitely NOT 'lovin the 70's dewpoints that have been common over the past few weeks....YUCK!  Can we just fast forward to September please?

Would not surprise me one bit if the models are underpredicting precip for this weekend across southern pa/md/etc and are causing the 1-2" forecasts that some are making based on these models to not be high enough. 

 

I just think there is a considerable amount of moisture coming north and east with "Bill" and approaching the frontal boundary and local terrain that I would not be surprised to see several 3+" reports over a 24 hour period Saturday into Sunday. 

 

From 7am April 21 to 7am May 16 (25 days) I recorded .66" of precip

From 7am May 17 to 7am June 19 (34 days) I recorded 9.74" of precip

 

(just noticed CTP issued a flood watch for FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- LANCASTER)

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For some reason, and the latest HPC map suggests it, I feel that Bills remnants soak the Mason-Dixon line and we see less as we go north.

 

Like I said this morning, HPC seems to like the Mason Dixon Line and south for the heaviest rainfall.

 

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I thought this was always just a rain event?

There's been some discussion about some severe wind / isolated tornado potential with the event.  The NAM is printing out it's silly instability profiles again for the Mason-Dixon counties and points south.  Blue box in effect through 11:00pm.

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