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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010


Dr No

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Guest someguy

So the GFS and the Euro are both BS, so what is right then?.

wow this turn by the 0z euro and the ggem is impressive

maybe that Low is going to get out of the way

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So the GFS and the Euro are both BS, so what is right then?.

I understand why it doesn't make sense to him, intuitively for that monster to develop so close to the other; he has a vast knowledge base of past analogs from which to draw upon and it probably isn't a very common occurence, but we are reaching the point at which it must be seriously considered.

DT, can you recall an analog in which 2 bombs have prospered in that close of proximity to one another....just curious; thx.

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Guest someguy

I understand why it doesn't make sense to him, intuitively for that monster to develop so close to the other; he has a vast knowledge base of past analogs from which to draw upon and it probably isn't a very common occurence, but we are reaching the point at which it must be seriously considered.

DT, can you recall an analog in which 2 bombs have prospered in that close of proximity to one another....just curious; thx.

Not right now

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I understand why it doesn't make sense to him, intuitively for that monster to develop so close to the other; he has a vast knowledge base of past analogs from which to draw upon and it probably isn't a very common occurence, but we are reaching the point at which it must be seriously considered.

DT, can you recall an analog in which 2 bombs have prospered in that close of proximity to one another....just curious; thx.

I understood that, but i was just asking him what makes sense to him since on most of the solutions tonight he called BS. OT i hope you get nailed with this storm you deserve it after not seeing a big storm for a long time.

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I understand why it doesn't make sense to him, intuitively for that monster to develop so close to the other; he has a vast knowledge base of past analogs from which to draw upon and probably isn't very common, but we are reaching the point at which it must be seriously considered.

DT, can you recall an anlog in which 2 bombs have prospered in that close of proximity to one another....just curious; thx.

I was going to ask is that nearly impossible or just unlikely?

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Guest someguy

Anybody in the know care to throw out some QPF numbers for those of us with no early access

RICH 0.90" all snow

DCA 0.50" tops SHARP drop off to the west

PHL...0.65 or 0.70" much less to the west MUCH heavier over s NJ

LGA 0.75... Much heavuer over LI much less over interior se NY and nw NJ

BDL 0.90"

BOS 1.00"

TAKEN VERBATIM EASTERN MD IS BIG WINNER FROM 0Z ggem and 0z euro

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Guest someguy

totals for SE and Mid atl

all of SC 0.50-1"

all of nc 0.50 -1", raleigh east to the outer banks 1"+

DC little over.50"

ric near 1"

orf 1"+

Cho 0.25 -.50"

I agree with these estimates

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If this scenario were to play out as modeled, do you see the qpf inching up as we get closer?

RICH 0.90" all snow

DCA 0.50" tops SHARP drop off to the west

PHL...0.65 or 0.70" much less to the west MUCH heavier over s NJ

LGA 0.75... Much heavuer over LI much less over interior se NY and nw NJ

BDL 0.90"

BOS 1.00"

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eddie..

i DID post maps at post # 82

did u not see that?

golly

Yeah. You called BS. As you sometimes do. Which was the basis for my initial question, i.e., define BS. And what's the source of the BS error... bad model, bad input etc?... Everything's cleared up so no reason to draw out...

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