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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010


Dr No

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Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point

Warning bells should be going off for the Mid Atlantic when the major phase job of the GGEM can't even deliver major snowfall. Although, model QPF and GGEM specifics are pretty much useless anyway. Seems like a quick storm, too.

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Right now, don't even worry about QPF at this point. Its about how things will be setting.. How far south does the low bomb..

So far, the forecasted ridging out over the West by the models look really good... But, in a La Nina season like the one we have, this would be one hell of a feat to get a big winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic.. So, we'll see. So far, darn interesting for sure..

So, this is either another big tease or this threat hopefully will happen..

Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point

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Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point

I'm probably stating the obvious Randy, but a tic further south, and/or a little quicker with the wrapping up of the system (per the GGEM) and the totals around your neck of the woods go up dramatically...

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Warning bells should be going off for the Mid Atlantic when the major phase job of the GGEM can't even deliver major snowfall. Although, model QPF and GGEM specifics are pretty much useless anyway. Seems like a quick storm, too.

You could be right about the MA and QPF, but I don't know about this being a "quick" storm. The onset of this storm has slowed down some, and the number of hours where precipitation is falling over the MA-to-NE is pretty significant (over 12-24 hours)

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Well, the GFS ensembles look east again, but with the support of the GGEM, maybe the OP should get more attention.

Ensembles at 108, 120, 132:

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif

These are last night's 0z ensemble runs.. in around 15 mins it should be updated though.

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i don't believe the QPF numbers will verify as close to depictions right now, not 5 days. 3 days fine.

HM - why is it in this scenario, 3 vorts phasing is not a great setup for someone?

This setup is good for a full blown east coast event. I am worried that the Ontario wave pulls everything north, like the GFS, and that wouldn't be good at all.

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to be fair, its somewhere around .75" qpf at BWI

Yes, extreme phase jobs like this can get the goods into NE MD, DE and perhaps coastal MD/VA. If the H5 low ends up more north than the extreme GGEM solution, this would get reduced and pushed north.

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Yes, extreme phase jobs like this can get the goods into NE MD, DE and perhaps coastal MD/VA. If the H5 low ends up more north than the extreme GGEM solution, this would get reduced and pushed north.

phase nightmare of MA was bliz of 78'

tough BWI did OK with 9", and a little more where I lived at the time

IAD received 1" from the cold front and DCA ended with 5-6"

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You could be right about the MA and QPF, but I don't know about this being a "quick" storm. The onset of this storm has slowed down some, and the number of hours where precipitation is falling over the MA-to-NE is pretty significant (over 12-24 hours)

takes 36 hours for the SLP to move from the FL panhandle to NYC.

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phase nightmare of MA was bliz of 78'

tough BWI did OK with 9", and a little more where I lived at the time

IAD received 1" from the cold front and DCA ended with 5-6"

I believe DCA only got 2" from Feb 1978.......it was one of those Miller B's in which Baltimore was MUCH better off than DC.

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