JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM still seems to shortchange VA on qpf. Maybe 10 mm. What's that 3-4"? .39"qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0Z GGEM is impressive it is doing exactly what the 0z GFS is doing hmMMMMMMMMM Does that mean that DT is saying maybe, JUST maybe, this is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DRY SLOT after 12"+/???? golly not that LOL I think most people would be fine with a "dry slot" AFTER a foot+ of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL I think most people would be fine with a "dry slot" AFTER a foot+ of snow! Not me, I'd be pretty upset if it happened while folks who didn't get dryslotted get 2 ft plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like SNE might have issues right there...kinda like feb 26 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Correct me if I'm wrong, but that looks closer than it has been. I think you are right; according to Tom they show a stronger signal for a coastal than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS Clown Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL I think most people would be fine with a "dry slot" AFTER a foot+ of snow! Is this a foot of GGEM snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point me too not as much thrown out to the west of the cold line as I would have expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point Warning bells should be going off for the Mid Atlantic when the major phase job of the GGEM can't even deliver major snowfall. Although, model QPF and GGEM specifics are pretty much useless anyway. Seems like a quick storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Right now, don't even worry about QPF at this point. Its about how things will be setting.. How far south does the low bomb.. So far, the forecasted ridging out over the West by the models look really good... But, in a La Nina season like the one we have, this would be one hell of a feat to get a big winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic.. So, we'll see. So far, darn interesting for sure.. So, this is either another big tease or this threat hopefully will happen.. Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 A lot better on the QPF on the GGEM but still not where one would think it would be looking at the surface and 5000ft maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i don't believe the QPF numbers will verify as close to depictions right now, not 5 days. 3 days fine. HM - why is it in this scenario, 3 vorts phasing is not a great setup for someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmm, GGEM looks a little underwhelmed with the precip down this way than I thought. Oh well...I'll take it at this point I'm probably stating the obvious Randy, but a tic further south, and/or a little quicker with the wrapping up of the system (per the GGEM) and the totals around your neck of the woods go up dramatically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Warning bells should be going off for the Mid Atlantic when the major phase job of the GGEM can't even deliver major snowfall. Although, model QPF and GGEM specifics are pretty much useless anyway. Seems like a quick storm, too. to be fair, its somewhere around .75" qpf at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Warning bells should be going off for the Mid Atlantic when the major phase job of the GGEM can't even deliver major snowfall. Although, model QPF and GGEM specifics are pretty much useless anyway. Seems like a quick storm, too. You could be right about the MA and QPF, but I don't know about this being a "quick" storm. The onset of this storm has slowed down some, and the number of hours where precipitation is falling over the MA-to-NE is pretty significant (over 12-24 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, the GFS ensembles look east again, but with the support of the GGEM, maybe the OP should get more attention. Ensembles at 108, 120, 132: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif These are last night's 0z ensemble runs.. in around 15 mins it should be updated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 A lot better on the QPF on the GGEM but still not where one would think it would be looking at the surface and 5000ft maps.. If you look at the skew-T in 3 days (per the GFS), you have a pretty dry atmosphere in place (and it is drying still as these graphics end at 72): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i don't believe the QPF numbers will verify as close to depictions right now, not 5 days. 3 days fine. HM - why is it in this scenario, 3 vorts phasing is not a great setup for someone? This setup is good for a full blown east coast event. I am worried that the Ontario wave pulls everything north, like the GFS, and that wouldn't be good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 These are last night's 0z ensemble runs No they are not, these are from tonight's 0z run. The GFS ens mean begins to update on RaleighWX's model page just prior to the run completing, check the time stamp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 to be fair, its somewhere around .75" qpf at BWI Yes, extreme phase jobs like this can get the goods into NE MD, DE and perhaps coastal MD/VA. If the H5 low ends up more north than the extreme GGEM solution, this would get reduced and pushed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This setup is good for a full blown east coast event. I am worried that the Ontario wave pulls everything north, like the GFS, and that wouldn't be good at all. Wouldn't be good at all or for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 These are last night's 0z ensemble runs.. in around 15 mins it should be updated though. ens are a little east of 12z ens and the 0z op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 These only go out to 120, but will be fun if the GGEM keeps up the solution: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wouldn't be good at all or for all? Probably still good for NYC and New England but the threat would get much reduced south of there and probably be a joke in MD/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes, extreme phase jobs like this can get the goods into NE MD, DE and perhaps coastal MD/VA. If the H5 low ends up more north than the extreme GGEM solution, this would get reduced and pushed north. phase nightmare of MA was bliz of 78' tough BWI did OK with 9", and a little more where I lived at the time IAD received 1" from the cold front and DCA ended with 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 132 hrs enalarged http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/testpages/aaa.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You could be right about the MA and QPF, but I don't know about this being a "quick" storm. The onset of this storm has slowed down some, and the number of hours where precipitation is falling over the MA-to-NE is pretty significant (over 12-24 hours) takes 36 hours for the SLP to move from the FL panhandle to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 phase nightmare of MA was bliz of 78' tough BWI did OK with 9", and a little more where I lived at the time IAD received 1" from the cold front and DCA ended with 5-6" I believe DCA only got 2" from Feb 1978.......it was one of those Miller B's in which Baltimore was MUCH better off than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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