LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 50-50 low gets absorbed into the PV near Greenland. Despite the odd way the GFS does it, the other models do this general thing. The main problem, to me, is the wave coming down into Ontario. I'd rather it didn't and we made magic with the two s/w we already have. And the purgatory that the energy is coming from (ie plateau of geopotential height field in SC Canada) will be very sensitive to how the main southern stream (both intensity and speed) interacts with the stagnant pockets of vorticity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM (120 Hr) already a 1001 MB LP at the SC Coast! Closed 500mb LP in the OV. http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif DT Land will do quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, not sure about STJ driven, but man, this has to dig further south and start bombing say near the Virginia coastal waters for a big hit in the Mid-Atlantic. Gonna be a challenge for sure.. I agree that the main QPF will be associated with the coastal and usually the Mid Atlantic, say S of PHL and away from the immediate shore does poorly. This needs to be less Ontario driven and more STJ driven to save your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 early look at the GGEM appears poised to be a Miller A MECS-HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM (120 Hr) already a 1001 MB LP at the SC Coast! Closed 500mb LP in the OV. http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif DT Land will do quite well reminds me of last nights 00z ec run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, not sure about STJ driven, but man, this has to dig further south and start bombing say near the Virginia coastal waters for a big hit in the Mid-Atlantic. Gonna be a challenge for sure.. I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM (120 Hr) already a 1001 MB LP at the SC Coast! Closed 500mb LP in the OV. http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif DT Land will do quite well What an awful model, it just keeps bouncing left and right. That's what happens with socialized medicine I can't believe I'm saying this, but the GFS has been pretty consistent, and so has the Euro with "minor" 100 mile shifts here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people. wait till you see the GGEM--makes the 00z euro last night look like flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 wait till you see the GGEM--makes the 00z euro last night look like flurries I saw it and that's what I am talking about with the phase job. Even the Ontario wave later on doesn't matter as much. At 108h, the phasing going on without any involvement from Ontario is how this thing becomes major. The 50-50 isn't quite as important to me as that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 wait till you see the GGEM--makes the 00z euro last night look like flurries Waiting on 144. Does it come up the coast or OTS. OTS would be horrible. Very little qpf EDIT: Hell yes, it's just east of NYC. It's a bomb for the southern mid atlantic on up. BEAUTIFUL!!! 978 low http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thats why I miss last year's setup.. I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What an awful model, it just keeps bouncing left and right. That's what happens with socialized medicine I can't believe I'm saying this, but the GFS has been pretty consistent, and so has the Euro with "minor" 100 mile shifts here and there. This is around the time you want to see the GGEM jump on board....Mt. Holly highlighted that even though its not one of the best models overall, it was spot on for last weekends storm...in other words lets be happy its on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM (120 Hr) already a 1001 MB LP at the SC Coast! Closed 500mb LP in the OV. http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif DT Land will do quite well Also the troff is digging down to the gulf coas,t like the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Waiting on 144. Does it come up the coast or OTS. OTS would be horrible. Very little qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 HOLY GGEM... 144 Hrs... 978MB just SE of NYC... HECS. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, the GFS ensembles look east again, but with the support of the GGEM, maybe the OP should get more attention. Ensembles at 108, 120, 132: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Waiting on 144. Does it come up the coast or OTS. OTS would be horrible. Very little qpf EDIT: Hell yes, it's just east of NYC. It's a bomb for the southern mid atlantic on up. BEAUTIFUL!!! GGEM gives us qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM just absolutely destroys the east coast from the carolinas up. now that's what i'm talking about. If the Euro comes in like that..... Cant wait for the color maps of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 132 and 144 hrs on the color maps which will be ready shortly will look nice on GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM just absolutely destroys the east coast from the carolinas up. now that's what i'm talking about. If the Euro comes in like that..... Cant wait for the color maps of the GGEM I'm estimating at least an inch of QPF for us down here....WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HOLY GGEM... 144 Hrs... 978MB just SE of NYC... HECS. http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif with a track that close to the coast I would be worried with mixing and dry slot issues but of course I guess it depends where you are. Also eastern long island is not going to be very happy with a track to their west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0Z GGEM is impressive it is doing exactly what the 0z GFS is doing hmMMMMMMMMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people. Yea, I took one look at the H5 low at the latitude of NYC and to me that portended that that soloution would not be as impressive for the ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 with a track that close to the coast I would be worried with mixing and dry slot issues but of course I guess it depends where you are. Also eastern long island is not going to be very happy with a track to their west DRY SLOT after 12"+/???? golly not that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So I've decided to keep tabs on the KMA a bit (just for kicks), it's pretty lame and east for the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM still seems to shortchange VA on qpf. Maybe 10 mm. What's that 3-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL, Mitch, I edited it in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 with a track that close to the coast I would be worried with mixing and dry slot issues but of course I guess it depends where you are. Also eastern long island is not going to be very happy with a track to their west It's not the first deterministic soloution to have done that....it doesn't act as that large of a detriment because it kind of gets shoved or redevelopes to the ene, toward CC on subsequent panels....or at least it did on other similar runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, the GFS ensembles look east again, but with the support of the GGEM, maybe the OP should get more attention. Ensembles at 108, 120, 132: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif Correct me if I'm wrong, but that looks closer than it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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