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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010


Dr No

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The 50-50 low gets absorbed into the PV near Greenland. Despite the odd way the GFS does it, the other models do this general thing.

The main problem, to me, is the wave coming down into Ontario. I'd rather it didn't and we made magic with the two s/w we already have.

And the purgatory that the energy is coming from (ie plateau of geopotential height field in SC Canada) will be very sensitive to how the main southern stream (both intensity and speed) interacts with the stagnant pockets of vorticity....

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Well, not sure about STJ driven, but man, this has to dig further south and start bombing say near the Virginia coastal waters for a big hit in the Mid-Atlantic. Gonna be a challenge for sure..

I agree that the main QPF will be associated with the coastal and usually the Mid Atlantic, say S of PHL and away from the immediate shore does poorly. This needs to be less Ontario driven and more STJ driven to save your area.

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Well, not sure about STJ driven, but man, this has to dig further south and start bombing say near the Virginia coastal waters for a big hit in the Mid-Atlantic. Gonna be a challenge for sure..

I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people.

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GGEM (120 Hr) already a 1001 MB LP at the SC Coast! Closed 500mb LP in the OV.

http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif

DT Land will do quite well :thumbsup:

What an awful model, it just keeps bouncing left and right. That's what happens with socialized medicine :arrowhead:

I can't believe I'm saying this, but the GFS has been pretty consistent, and so has the Euro with "minor" 100 mile shifts here and there.

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I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people.

wait till you see the GGEM--makes the 00z euro last night look like flurries

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wait till you see the GGEM--makes the 00z euro last night look like flurries

I saw it and that's what I am talking about with the phase job. Even the Ontario wave later on doesn't matter as much. At 108h, the phasing going on without any involvement from Ontario is how this thing becomes major. The 50-50 isn't quite as important to me as that feature.

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wait till you see the GGEM--makes the 00z euro last night look like flurries

Waiting on 144. Does it come up the coast or OTS. OTS would be horrible. Very little qpf

EDIT: Hell yes, it's just east of NYC. It's a bomb for the southern mid atlantic on up. BEAUTIFUL!!! 978 low

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

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Thats why I miss last year's setup..

I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people.

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:thumbsup:

What an awful model, it just keeps bouncing left and right. That's what happens with socialized medicine :arrowhead:

I can't believe I'm saying this, but the GFS has been pretty consistent, and so has the Euro with "minor" 100 mile shifts here and there.

This is around the time you want to see the GGEM jump on board....Mt. Holly highlighted that even though its not one of the best models overall, it was spot on for last weekends storm...in other words lets be happy its on our side :thumbsup:

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HOLY GGEM... 144 Hrs... 978MB just SE of NYC... HECS.

http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif

with a track that close to the coast I would be worried with mixing and dry slot issues but of course I guess it depends where you are. Also eastern long island is not going to be very happy with a track to their west :yikes:

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I don't mean to be a downer, but usually these northern stream phase jobs where the h5 low is over the great lakes or OH are pretty lame in the Mid Atlantic. What I meant when I said STJ driven is that I want that s/w to amplify and pull in the northern s/w and that's it. Once the Ontario wave gets involved and the mean h5 low shifts way north, the game is over for a lot of people.

Yea, I took one look at the H5 low at the latitude of NYC and to me that portended that that soloution would not be as impressive for the ma.

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Guest someguy

with a track that close to the coast I would be worried with mixing and dry slot issues but of course I guess it depends where you are. Also eastern long island is not going to be very happy with a track to their west :yikes:

DRY SLOT after 12"+/????

golly not that

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with a track that close to the coast I would be worried with mixing and dry slot issues but of course I guess it depends where you are. Also eastern long island is not going to be very happy with a track to their west :yikes:

It's not the first deterministic soloution to have done that....it doesn't act as that large of a detriment because it kind of gets shoved or redevelopes to the ene, toward CC on subsequent panels....or at least it did on other similar runs.

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