Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this run is maybe a bit odd, however the h5 set up is reasonable and there is a decent chance that it doesn't happen. Criticizing the GFS right off the bat and not even giving it a chance makes you seem a bit radical. DD... see the post above and YOU tell me if the 500 mb map is reasonable too you? i HAVE postulated a rational positon here maybe you outa respond in kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The only thing I care about is the speed and strength of the s/w. The 00z GFS is certainly slower with it, which keeps hope alive. see post 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gotta' love the GFS's placement off the vortex at 180 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_180l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Playing in fantacy land now, but something big looks to be forthcoming in the 260 hour ish range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DD... see the post above and YOU tell me if the 500 mb map is reasonable too you? i HAVE postulated a rational positon here maybe you outa respond in kind SW ridging in the Maritimes develops ahead of most east coast storms. And the storms aren't as close as they look on the NCEP gfs map, it is zoomed out and distorted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 see post 86 I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DD... see the post above and YOU tell me if the 500 mb map is reasonable too you? i HAVE postulated a rational positon here maybe you outa respond in kind Dave your more in line with the 12z Euro solution i guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either. is yesterdays ECMWF run still a viable solution....the 00z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 is yesterdays ECMWF run still a viable solution....the 00z euro? JI, I can't imagine that any solution is off the table 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 700mb RH signature has quite the comma head as far south as central/N VA, but very little precip I was expecting more qpf having first looked at the 7H map Yeah, based on the upper levels, im gonna call BS on that QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, based on the upper levels, im gonna call BS on that QPF field. I think it's possible. This looks very Miller B-ish to me. Reminds me a lot of the Dec. 2000 storm which had a very tight gradient in E PA into NJ. Some areas in NJ saw over 18+ in. from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either. NOT in 24 hrs -- 96 to 120 -- HM... I guess most folks think that for some I dont waat them to get a BIG snow... and the point I making really has nothing to do with meteorology BUT I think this is a valid point HM not saying the 0z gfs cannot be correct ... but I am on solid ground here to be skeptical 00 72 hr 96 hr 120 h r Look at what happens 24 hrs later... not 2 or 3 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Playing in fantacy land now, but something big looks to be forthcoming in the 260 hour ish range.... Blocking reloads... some strong nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 People are asking why so dry on this run re: the X-mas storm.....the days before aproach, most layers of the atmosphere have a NW'erly component, ie dry....No big "H" over northern Maine to moisten the antecedent airmass, thus bombogenisis will be the driver of getting the precip field westward.... and not in any long distance fashion, thus the "tight" areal coverage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dave your more in line with the 12z Euro solution i guess? I'm assuming so, I mean I'm obviously not banking on anything, but saying I know DT's position on this storm would be impossible. He is a then b then zdzfsae. I think the point is good things can happen for us if we keep the 50/50 just not too far south, and the Pac Ridge needs to properly position itself with solid s/w amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either. see post 86 and 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That ridge is pretty amplified on the GFS, albeit a little east. It's no surprise that the Big Pig 50/50 low gets the out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DT, that is a good point. However, I think the main issue is the phasing. The models are dropping this wave down into Canada that picks up the coastal storm. Its positioning is far north and basically is less than stellar for a classic KU. You are right that the whole Canada-Atlantic sector is just chaotic at this point and the modeling will be crazy with it, even into the short range. Unfortunately, it comes down to the phase job in the end. I hate storms like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NOT in 24 hrs -- 96 to 120 -- HM... I guess most folks think that for some I dont waat them to get a BIG snow... and the point I making really has nothing to do with meteorology BUT I think this is a valid point HM not saying the 0z gfs cannot be correct ... but I am on solid ground here to be skeptical 00 72 hr 96 hr 120 h r So do you think the storm will bomb further southwest, or are you saying it will shear out and not bomb at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think you have valid points on this... Didn't see that when I first looked at the 500mb maps.. Good catch on that.. NOT in 24 hrs -- 96 to 120 -- HM... I guess most folks think that for some I dont waat them to get a BIG snow... and the point I making really has nothing to do with meteorology BUT I think this is a valid point HM not saying the 0z gfs cannot be correct ... but I am on solid ground here to be skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The players are still on the field at least, this is around the time frame when things just vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DT, that is a good point. However, I think the main issue is the phasing. The models are dropping this wave down into Canada that picks up the coastal storm. Its positioning is far north and basically is less than stellar for a classic KU. You are right that the whole Canada-Atlantic sector is just chaotic at this point and the modeling will be crazy with it, even into the short range. Unfortunately, it comes down to the phase job in the end. I hate storms like this... what was that winter that we kept trying to phase storms and nothing worked out? Im sure it was a La nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So do you think the storm will bomb further southwest, or are you saying it will shear out and not bomb at all? sw or se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 People are asking why so dry on this run re: the X-mas storm.....the days before aproach, most layers of the atmosphere have a NW'erly component, ie dry....No big "H" over northern Maine to moisten the antecedent airmass, thus bombogenisis will be the driver of getting the precip field westward.... and not in any long distance fashion, thus the "tight" areal coverage... Great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 50-50 low gets absorbed into the PV near Greenland. Despite the odd way the GFS does it, the other models do this general thing. The main problem, to me, is the wave coming down into Ontario. I'd rather it didn't and we made magic with the two s/w we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 sw or se SW or further away from the 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what was that winter that we kept trying to phase storms and nothing worked out? Im sure it was a La nina. Well, it was that whole 2000-01 to 2001-02 period. That was just not a nice time for phasing and it was horrible in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM out to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Seems like in La Nina we always have this problem with an added disturbance. God this is so delicate.. Doesn't take much for this not to happen.. Well, for the bigger event.. Great to see you posting again. Hopefully we can start mentioning gravity waves and thundersnow... Really do hope we have something big this weekend.. The 50-50 low gets absorbed into the PV near Greenland. Despite the odd way the GFS does it, the other models do this general thing. The main problem, to me, is the wave coming down into Ontario. I'd rather it didn't and we made magic with the two s/w we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Great point I agree that the main QPF will be associated with the coastal and usually the Mid Atlantic, say S of PHL and away from the immediate shore does poorly. This needs to be less Ontario driven and more STJ driven to save your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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