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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010


Dr No

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Guest someguy

I think this run is maybe a bit odd, however the h5 set up is reasonable and there is a decent chance that it doesn't happen. Criticizing the GFS right off the bat and not even giving it a chance makes you seem a bit radical.

DD...

see the post above and YOU tell me if the 500 mb map is reasonable too you?

i HAVE postulated a rational positon here

maybe you outa respond in kind

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Guest someguy

The only thing I care about is the speed and strength of the s/w. The 00z GFS is certainly slower with it, which keeps hope alive.

see post 86

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DD...

see the post above and YOU tell me if the 500 mb map is reasonable too you?

i HAVE postulated a rational positon here

maybe you outa respond in kind

SW ridging in the Maritimes develops ahead of most east coast storms. And the storms aren't as close as they look on the NCEP gfs map, it is zoomed out and distorted.

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see post 86

I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either.

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I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either.

is yesterdays ECMWF run still a viable solution....the 00z euro?

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Yeah, based on the upper levels, im gonna call BS on that QPF field.

I think it's possible. This looks very Miller B-ish to me. Reminds me a lot of the Dec. 2000 storm which had a very tight gradient in E PA into NJ. Some areas in NJ saw over 18+ in. from that event.

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Guest someguy

I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either.

NOT in 24 hrs -- 96 to 120 -- HM...

I guess most folks think that for some I dont waat them to get a BIG snow...

and the point I making really has nothing to do with meteorology

BUT I think this is a valid point HM

not saying the 0z gfs cannot be correct ... but I am on solid ground here to be skeptical

00 72 hr 96 hr 120 h

r post-1837-0-41738100-1292906505.gif

post-1837-0-75584900-1292906511.gif

post-1837-0-37865300-1292906518.gif

Look at what happens 24 hrs later... not 2 or 3 days....

post-1837-0-80745300-1292906524.gif

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People are asking why so dry on this run re: the X-mas storm.....the days before aproach, most layers of the atmosphere have a NW'erly component, ie dry....No big "H" over northern Maine to moisten the antecedent airmass, thus bombogenisis will be the driver of getting the precip field westward.... and not in any long distance fashion, thus the "tight" areal coverage...

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Dave your more in line with the 12z Euro solution i guess?

I'm assuming so, I mean I'm obviously not banking on anything, but saying I know DT's position on this storm would be impossible. He is a then b then zdzfsae. I think the point is good things can happen for us if we keep the 50/50 just not too far south, and the Pac Ridge needs to properly position itself with solid s/w amplification.

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Guest someguy

I feel like we have done this before for some reason. You know at this stage in the past that this 50-50 low feature usually gets out of the way without the aid of something to keep it there. At this stage in the game, this is pretty classic. The 12z ECMWF didn't seem to mind it either.

see post 86 and 102

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DT, that is a good point. However, I think the main issue is the phasing. The models are dropping this wave down into Canada that picks up the coastal storm. Its positioning is far north and basically is less than stellar for a classic KU.

You are right that the whole Canada-Atlantic sector is just chaotic at this point and the modeling will be crazy with it, even into the short range. Unfortunately, it comes down to the phase job in the end.

I hate storms like this...

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NOT in 24 hrs -- 96 to 120 -- HM...

I guess most folks think that for some I dont waat them to get a BIG snow...

and the point I making really has nothing to do with meteorology

BUT I think this is a valid point HM

not saying the 0z gfs cannot be correct ... but I am on solid ground here to be skeptical

00 72 hr 96 hr 120 h

r post-1837-0-41738100-1292906505.gif

post-1837-0-75584900-1292906511.gif

post-1837-0-37865300-1292906518.gif

post-1837-0-80745300-1292906524.gif

So do you think the storm will bomb further southwest, or are you saying it will shear out and not bomb at all?

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I think you have valid points on this... Didn't see that when I first looked at the 500mb maps.. Good catch on that..

NOT in 24 hrs -- 96 to 120 -- HM...

I guess most folks think that for some I dont waat them to get a BIG snow...

and the point I making really has nothing to do with meteorology

BUT I think this is a valid point HM

not saying the 0z gfs cannot be correct ... but I am on solid ground here to be skeptical

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DT, that is a good point. However, I think the main issue is the phasing. The models are dropping this wave down into Canada that picks up the coastal storm. Its positioning is far north and basically is less than stellar for a classic KU.

You are right that the whole Canada-Atlantic sector is just chaotic at this point and the modeling will be crazy with it, even into the short range. Unfortunately, it comes down to the phase job in the end.

I hate storms like this...

what was that winter that we kept trying to phase storms and nothing worked out? Im sure it was a La nina.

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People are asking why so dry on this run re: the X-mas storm.....the days before aproach, most layers of the atmosphere have a NW'erly component, ie dry....No big "H" over northern Maine to moisten the antecedent airmass, thus bombogenisis will be the driver of getting the precip field westward.... and not in any long distance fashion, thus the "tight" areal coverage...

Great point

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The 50-50 low gets absorbed into the PV near Greenland. Despite the odd way the GFS does it, the other models do this general thing.

The main problem, to me, is the wave coming down into Ontario. I'd rather it didn't and we made magic with the two s/w we already have.

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what was that winter that we kept trying to phase storms and nothing worked out? Im sure it was a La nina.

Well, it was that whole 2000-01 to 2001-02 period. That was just not a nice time for phasing and it was horrible in the Mid Atlantic.

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Seems like in La Nina we always have this problem with an added disturbance. God this is so delicate.. Doesn't take much for this not to happen.. Well, for the bigger event..

Great to see you posting again. Hopefully we can start mentioning gravity waves and thundersnow... Really do hope we have something big this weekend..

The 50-50 low gets absorbed into the PV near Greenland. Despite the odd way the GFS does it, the other models do this general thing.

The main problem, to me, is the wave coming down into Ontario. I'd rather it didn't and we made magic with the two s/w we already have.

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Great point

I agree that the main QPF will be associated with the coastal and usually the Mid Atlantic, say S of PHL and away from the immediate shore does poorly. This needs to be less Ontario driven and more STJ driven to save your area.

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