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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010


Dr No

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Guest someguy

There's no way this low goes ENE looking at this run. It goes from NE NC to a bomb east of NJ and south of Long Island.

PLEASE STOP it certainly is

until it gets caught by the 500 Low and Pulled waaaay north

which it was not doing at 102 hrs

now it is

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It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up.

Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast.

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It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up.

Wouldn't this make sense in a La Nina though?

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this is a pretty extreme GFS run

doubt of the GGFS Ensemble support this

or the 0z f GGEM and 0z euro

Can't forget about the Ukie either which went against GFS also. Funny watching people in this thread pin their hopes and dreams on one model that pretty much has no other support right now.

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Guest someguy

Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast.

this is way too extreme HM

I thought the 18z was silly but this is fooking whacko

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Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast.

the 700mb RH signature has quite the comma head as far south as central/N VA, but very little precip

I was expecting more qpf having first looked at the 7H map

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Wouldn't this make sense in a La Nina though?

La Nina doesn't just zap away energy from a previously existed shortwave over the south central US. There is no physical mechanism from what I can see to do what the GFS is doing with the southern shortwave. The vort is impressive at 72-84...and drops to basically nothing by 102-108.

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the 700mb RH signature has quite the comma head as far south as central/N VA, but very little precip

I was expecting more qpf having first looked at the 7H map

Speaking just off the GFS, there would probably be less QPF in the end over your area. You need southern stream help or else...

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Guest someguy

take a look at the CURRENT MASSIVE 500 Low in the nw atlantic

see it?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

96 hrs this is the 500 MB two massive 500 Lows over eastern and se Canada

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

YET according to the 0z GS this system is going to close off and BOmbs next RIGHT next to -- right next to in the synoptic large scale sense a 24 hrs later

at 120 hrs???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

sorry I call BS

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this is way too extreme HM

I thought the 18z was silly but this is fooking whacko

The only thing I care about is the speed and strength of the s/w. The 00z GFS is certainly slower with it, which keeps hope alive.

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Can't forget about the Ukie either which went against GFS also. Funny watching people in this thread pin their hopes and dreams on one model that pretty much has no other support right now.

No model is that far offshore. ECMWF Was 100miles east. The pattern is way less progressive and more amplified than the Sunday-Monday storm which deserved this kind of trolling

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