Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There's no way this low goes ENE looking at this run. It goes from NE NC to a bomb east of NJ and south of Long Island. PLEASE STOP it certainly is until it gets caught by the 500 Low and Pulled waaaay north which it was not doing at 102 hrs now it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Oooooh boy. Gotta love that closed low at h500, set-up looks perfect except the ridge could be further west. Nevertheless, this goes into the archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Randy, I think we're a bit too far south for the good stuff by the looks of things I'd guess NYC points NE will get really crushed, looking at the H5 low, but still a SECS or MECS s of there maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 but 5 days out. Close to blizzard conditions at 120-129h across the Northeast coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Cloed 500mb low tracks from Detroit to Cape May Awsome for NY-NE Good for Philly-BAL Okay for DC but you may get dryslotted after 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Storm moves to and slows near the elbow of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Question is... do we believe this run? 12z GFS did not have a closed 500mb low at 12z 12/25 as the 0z GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 500 maps at 0z and from 12z are remarkably different in the 100 hour or so timeframe. Timing, at least at the surface, seems about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The track is gorgeous for DC to BOS. No worries about surface oddities, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up. Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 this is a pretty extreme GFS run doubt of the GGFS Ensemble support this or the 0z f GGEM and 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It looks like the GFS completely diminishes the southern shortwave between 84 and 102 hours. That doesn't seem reasonable IMO. The system becomes dominated by northern stream energy by the time it starts to really blow up. Wouldn't this make sense in a La Nina though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 this is a pretty extreme GFS run doubt of the GGFS Ensemble support this or the 0z f GGEM and 0z euro Can't forget about the Ukie either which went against GFS also. Funny watching people in this thread pin their hopes and dreams on one model that pretty much has no other support right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast. this is way too extreme HM I thought the 18z was silly but this is fooking whacko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 PLEASE STOP it certainly is until it gets caught by the 500 Low and Pulled waaaay north which it was not doing at 102 hrs now it is Oh okay, I get what you mean now. I interpreted your post as that the low would continue to move ENE after it had hit the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Excellent point. Things are still a little too fast as well, per the other models. If the STJ s/w stays a defined feature, this will hit everyone and not just NJ/northeast. the 700mb RH signature has quite the comma head as far south as central/N VA, but very little precip I was expecting more qpf having first looked at the 7H map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wouldn't this make sense in a La Nina though? La Nina doesn't just zap away energy from a previously existed shortwave over the south central US. There is no physical mechanism from what I can see to do what the GFS is doing with the southern shortwave. The vort is impressive at 72-84...and drops to basically nothing by 102-108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DC/Nova actually does pretty well with some over-run up front. Still miss out on most of the really heavy stuff though. But I'll take it for Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ssssshhh the science is 2ndary Based on that 500mb map.. doesn't the QPF seem very light. DT - What do you think is wrong physically with the models besides that there is no other support for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 QPF 108 - 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFs (vs 18z) has the High pressure dropping into the central US from Canada deeper and stronger throughout this run. Is this playing a factor in the strength/precipitation shiled of the coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't forget about the Ukie either which went against GFS also. Funny watching people in this thread pin their hopes and dreams on one model that pretty much has no other support right now. Violation: This is an OZ run thread for 12/21. People and A LOT of Mets just analyzing THIS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 700mb RH signature has quite the comma head as far south as central/N VA, but very little precip I was expecting more qpf having first looked at the 7H map Speaking just off the GFS, there would probably be less QPF in the end over your area. You need southern stream help or else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 take a look at the CURRENT MASSIVE 500 Low in the nw atlantic see it? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_000l.gif 96 hrs this is the 500 MB two massive 500 Lows over eastern and se Canada http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif YET according to the 0z GS this system is going to close off and BOmbs next RIGHT next to -- right next to in the synoptic large scale sense a 24 hrs later at 120 hrs??? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif sorry I call BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 this is way too extreme HM I thought the 18z was silly but this is fooking whacko The only thing I care about is the speed and strength of the s/w. The 00z GFS is certainly slower with it, which keeps hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 700mb RH signature has quite the comma head as far south as central/N VA, but very little precip I was expecting more qpf having first looked at the 7H map We get nailed on this run. Surface has 120+ hours to come into line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't forget about the Ukie either which went against GFS also. Funny watching people in this thread pin their hopes and dreams on one model that pretty much has no other support right now. No model is that far offshore. ECMWF Was 100miles east. The pattern is way less progressive and more amplified than the Sunday-Monday storm which deserved this kind of trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Speaking just off the GFS, there would probably be less QPF in the end over your area. You need southern stream help or else... well, it is a NINA, so that does not shock me for you to say that well see, plenty of time to vacillate the bulls eye to my north and south over 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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