0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010

[mitchnick]

Thanks i will book it .

but with 850 temps -10C to -11.5C, definitely we'll have ratios of 15:1, so 8-10", maybe 12" if we got lucky verbatim this run

of course it will change

plus, you are a bit east of BWI so every foot east will help

[A-L-E-X]

yea but the low was probably further east than what the euro is showing right now for that storm im sure right?

Yes, that one presented a more extreme scenario than this one.... 20" ACY, basically nothing in Philly and about 2-5" NYC/Long Island.... so not only further east but further south also.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just throwing this out there but the Euro looks like the 96' storm at 500mb. It could be that the precip is less and less widespread because the southern jet is weaker in la ninas...thought?

'96 was also a Nina, though markedly weaker.

[nzucker]

Does this resemble any of the storms from last winter? When I read what you wrote, with a storm intensifying that close to the coast, the storm I immediately thought of was the middle Feb storm last winter.... Feb 11, 2010. Two feet might be asking a bit much, but we've gotten a foot before in the kind of scenario youre depicting.

I think it looks most like the 2/10 storm as you say, although the ECM is more of a Miller A while the GFS shows a later-blooming Miller B scenario. The models really need to work out at what exact latitude this Pacific energy is going to track across the Plains, which will influence where the coastal forms. The constant features seem to be the PNA ridge hooking up with the -NAO west, the strong northern stream energy entering the trough and amplifying it quickly, and the extremely cold air on the backside of the system with -16C 850s over NNE.

[A-L-E-X]

Just throwing this out there but the Euro looks like the 96' storm at 500mb. It could be that the precip is less and less widespread because the southern jet is weaker in la ninas...thought?

1996 was a la nina also-- albeit a weak one. La Ninas can be great if theyre weak (especially weak la ninas after el ninos like 1966-67, 1995-96), just imagine what this winter would have been like had the la nina stayed weak.

[ozzie]

Yes, that one presented a more extreme scenario than this one.... 20" ACY, basically nothing in Philly and about 2-5" NYC/Long Island.... so not only further east but further south also.

right so then that storm still does not provide support for this one because the low is not in the same place it is further west here and whenever the low is in this position the precip is almost always further west than what the models are showing at this point

[VAsnowlvr82]

Not sure if its out but can someone post the qpf map when its available? Thanks!

[Confuzzled]

Question for the METS:

Does the euro always update that early on the raleigh site (or am I reading it wrong?) and is this current Euro solution screwing over CT / New England?

[ravensrule]

'96 was also a Nina, though markedly weaker.

During that 96 storm i was scheduled to fly out of JFK to go overseas to visit my then girlfriend and now wife and what usually takes 20 minutes to get to the train station took me 3 hours. When i finally got there Amtrak cancelled all their trains to NY. That will always be my favorite storm and probably the best i will see in my lifetime.

[nzucker]

1996 was a la nina also-- albeit a weak one. La Ninas can be great if theyre weak (especially weak la ninas after el ninos like 1966-67, 1995-96), just imagine what this winter would have been like had the la nina stayed weak.

This winter will be plenty memorable if we get this storm to go along with a brutally cold December.

I also see more threats for early January with the Siberian high building into Canada and bringing bitter air towards the Northern Plains and eventually the Northeast, with the Pacific still providing lots of fuel due to the ULL spinning in the Pacific Northwest/Gulf of Alaska. I really don't see any sign of the pattern breaking down to a mild SE ridge scenario, contrary to what La Niña climo says. We may have one of the coldest winters in recent memory if this blocking pattern continues as the models show it to.

[jm1220]

1996 was a la nina also-- albeit a weak one. La Ninas can be great if theyre weak (especially weak la ninas after el ninos like 1966-67, 1995-96), just imagine what this winter would have been like had the la nina stayed weak.

We also don't have much recent precedent for strong Ninas in constant -NAO regimes. Maybe the 1960s? Who knows, maybe the doom/gloom predictions for Jan/Feb could be wrong if the NAO stays negative.

[mitchnick]

We also don't have much recent precedent for strong Ninas in constant -NAO regimes. Maybe the 1960s? Who knows, maybe the doom/gloom predictions for Jan/Feb could be wrong if the NAO stays negative.

its not a strong NINA, its moderate

http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for

you have to get a tri-monthly average in ENSO 3.4 of at least -1.5C, and we're not there and its proged to wane some too

[A-L-E-X]

This winter will be plenty memorable if we get this storm to go along with a brutally cold December.

I also see more threats for early January with the Siberian high building into Canada and bringing bitter air towards the Northern Plains and eventually the Northeast, with the Pacific still providing lots of fuel due to the ULL spinning in the Pacific Northwest/Gulf of Alaska. I really don't see any sign of the pattern breaking down to a mild SE ridge scenario, contrary to what La Niña climo says. We may have one of the coldest winters in recent memory if this blocking pattern continues as the models show it to.

Well, I think we'll get a break in January for sure, since even weak la ninas like 1966-67 and 1995-96 featured less cold in January, but as Don said, extreme blocks tend to repeat themselves, so sometime later in Feb or March as the la nina is weakening we could get into a 1956-esque pattern.

[jcwxguy]

not a met, but thats not updated from the raleigh site-allans

[Mencken_Fan]

Wasnt March 1960 that intense around that area?

You may be thinking of the "Great Atlantic Coastal Storm" aka "Ash Wednesday Storm" of March 1962; the greatest Mid-Atlantic Nor'easter of all time.

I was 10 at the time and went with my dad down to the coast after the storm. The barrier islands of Delaware were nearly obliterated. So many buildings I'd come to know during my summer vacations were gone...and I mean completely gone.

That summer, heavy equipment was still dragging sand around. It took a long time to restore a semblance of normalcy. One wouldn't know it driving through today, but barely a structure was standing on that entire coast after that great Nor'easter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

During that 96 storm i was scheduled to fly out of JFK to go overseas to visit my then girlfriend and now wife and what usually takes 20 minutes to get to the train station took me 3 hours. When i finally got there Amtrak cancelled all their trains to NY. That will always be my favorite storm and probably the best i will see in my lifetime.

I can't believe that living in Baltimore, one of those mutant HECS from last season didn't trump that one for you.

[A-L-E-X]

You may be thinking of the "Great Atlantic Coastal Storm" aka "Ash Wednesday Storm" of March 1962; the greatest Mid-Atlantic Nor'easter of all time.

I was 10 at the time and went with my dad down to the coast after the storm. The barrier islands of Delaware were nearly obliterated. So many buildings I'd come to know during my summer vacations were gone...and I mean completely gone.

That summer, heavy equipment was still dragging sand around. It took a long time to restore a semblance of normalcy. One wouldn't know it driving through today, but barely a structure was standing on that entire coast after that great Nor'easter.

That was an amazing multiday storm which was the 60s version of Dec 1991, but the storm I was thinking of dumped almost 3 feet of snow on Nantucket island.... it was a massively intensity late season noreaster that was the beginning of what some consider the "greatest 12 month period of weather" for the northeast...... the March 1960 snowstorm, then hurricane Donna in September, then the great 1960-61 winter with three KU events from Dec 1960 thru Feb 1961.

[dendrite]

Question for the METS:

Does the euro always update that early on the raleigh site (or am I reading it wrong?) and is this current Euro solution screwing over CT / New England?

It's updated and SNE gets pounded.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

lets try to take the past storms talk to the regional threads

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, I think we'll get a break in January for sure, since even weak la ninas like 1966-67 and 1995-96 featured less cold in January, but as Don said, extreme blocks tend to repeat themselves, so sometime later in Feb or March as the la nina is weakening we could get into a 1956-esque pattern.

I've been touting a huge march all year.

[tombo82685]

im just curious why is the euro so far south with the low? Whats causing this?

[Guest someguy]

not a met, but thats not updated from the raleigh site-allans

YES IT IS LOOK AT THE DATES 0Z

[40/70 Benchmark]

That was an amazing multiday storm which was the 60s version of Dec 1991, but the storm I was thinking of dumped almost 3 feet of snow on Nantucket island.... it was a massively intensity late season noreaster that was the beginning of what some consider the "greatest 12 month period of weather" for the northeast...... the March 1960 snowstorm, then hurricane Donna in September, then the great 1960-61 winter with three KU events from Dec 1960 thru Feb 1961.

1992....

[jcwxguy]

havent seen this posted (unless i missed it) but 00z ensembles of gfs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf126.html

[ravensrule]

I can't believe that living in Baltimore, one of those mutant HECS from last season didn't trump that one for you.

Nope, IMBY i recieved 34 inches and it was windier than any of last years HECS so as a single storm it was my favorite. Of course as a winter im 99% sure this past winter will be one i will never even see anything close to again.

[Guest someguy]

no... the r/s line is well off shore

its all snow for you inall CT

Question for the METS:

Does the euro always update that early on the raleigh site (or am I reading it wrong?) and is this current Euro solution screwing over CT / New England?

[jcwxguy]

i stand corrected , i am surprised how quickly it updated on there

[A-L-E-X]

1992....

yea sorry lol-- Will got like 3' in that one, but regardless of whether it was rain or snow, that was the most intense noreaster I have ever experienced.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

will long island see rain or now?

The southern eastern tip may have some precip issues at the height of the storm but otherwise you should be mostly "now". haha

[jcwxguy]

00z nogaps is OTS