Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM has initialized and looks OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 just a reminder folks stay on model disco only http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum-20/announcement-10-storm-mode-members-please-read/ Members, Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode: 1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question. 2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated. 3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “how much for…..” etc will be deleted. 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "How much for...?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. 5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted. 6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues. Storm Mode 1 offense, warn, 5 posts per day limit to be removed AFTER event. 2nd offense, suspension for duration of event or permanent ban Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 "If" 21z SREF's are any indication, NAM should hold on to the speed and location of s/w not worth posting them because they are at their max range, but thought I'd mention it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No major changes on NAM through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No major changes on NAM through 48. Looks more suppressed in the East and ridging out front of it in the West. already digging further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I agree slightly more suppressed. SW may be slightly slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The confluence over the East is definitely hanging on a bit longer, and is stronger. That being said, the shortwave on the CA coast being slower and more amplified could compensate for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does look a bit further north at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 78 looks moisture starved on surface map compared to 84 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is weaker and a little NW of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 78 looks moisture starved on surface map compared to 84 18z Actually I would say that's because the run is slower to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 1017 surface low is South compared to the 1013 surface low on 18z, or am I reading this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does look a bit further north at 60 at 84 hours low is more south than the 18z run prob about 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Surface low positions don't matter 84 hours on the NAM. What matters is the H5 setup. The surface low will sometimes be better when H5 is worse, or worse when H5 is better. Pretty much the only use of surface depictions at this point in time is 120 hours out, to know what's going on at H5 and matching it up with the surface so good/bad trends can be identified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 84 hours low is more south than the 18z run prob about 30 miles At 6z on Friday. The low is NW of where it was on 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the polar vortex is further north (which could delay the phase) and the "50/50 low" is further south (which would supply more cold air and push the track a bit south) on the 0z NAM compared to the 18z run. I think this run trends toward the recent GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the polar vortex is further north (which could delay the phase) and the "50/50 low" is further south (which would supply more cold air and push the track a bit south) on the 0z NAM compared to the 18z run. I think this run trends toward the recent GFS runs. Actually, it's interesting just how differently the GFS and the NAM are treating the Atlantic low already at the 30 hr mark. I suspect that creates a major knock on effect down the line - with the NAM supporting a much more dynamic solution down the line, and the GFS continuing to suppress the system. But we shall see...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0z 84 HR NAM... just to see GENERAL ideas... Note the MONSTER 50/50 well south of New foundland this is one of the reason why this low on the recent Models is trending south ( useless 18z GFS notwithstanding) THAT huge 500 low is a BIIIG 50/50 but usally these are further North than this one... N or over Newfoundland this one is well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0z 84 HR NAM... just to see GENERAL ideas... Note the MONSTER 50/50 well south of New foundland this is one of the reason why this low on the recent Models is trending south ( useless 18z GFS notwithstanding) THAT huge 500 low is a BIIIG 50/50 but usally these are further North than this one... N or over Newfoundland this one is well south Sounds familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 . I know someone earlier mentioned this huge Low in the nw atlantic ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 00z GFS already weaker with it (Atlantic low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 00z GFS at 48 hours looks nearly identical to the 00z Euro at 72 hours from last night....closed 552 dm low over southern California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 00z GFS at 48 hours looks nearly identical to the 00z Euro at 72 hours from last night....closed 552 dm low over southern California. It is now no longer different with the 50-50 low but the main s/w is further south and stronger at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Cut off over Arizona at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 More nothern stream energy over the Dakotas at 72 compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'd be surprised if this run isn't similar to last night's Euro based on the H5 setup at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gee wiz...look at the positioning from last night's 00z run to tonight's 00z run. SLOWER... look out folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just to keep things in perspective, last night's 00z GFS at 12z 12/24 had the s/w over MO hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think we need some more closed 500mb LPs on the map to complicate things this looks like it's going to get all phased up early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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