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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/2010


Dr No

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just a reminder folks stay on model disco only

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum-20/announcement-10-storm-mode-members-please-read/

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Surface low positions don't matter 84 hours on the NAM. What matters is the H5 setup. The surface low will sometimes be better when H5 is worse, or worse when H5 is better. Pretty much the only use of surface depictions at this point in time is 120 hours out, to know what's going on at H5 and matching it up with the surface so good/bad trends can be identified.

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Looks like the polar vortex is further north (which could delay the phase) and the "50/50 low" is further south (which would supply more cold air and push the track a bit south) on the 0z NAM compared to the 18z run. I think this run trends toward the recent GFS runs.

Actually, it's interesting just how differently the GFS and the NAM are treating the Atlantic low already at the 30 hr mark. I suspect that creates a major knock on effect down the line - with the NAM supporting a much more dynamic solution down the line, and the GFS continuing to suppress the system. But we shall see...!

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Guest someguy

0z 84 HR NAM... just to see GENERAL ideas... Note the MONSTER 50/50 well south of New foundland

this is one of the reason why this low on the recent Models is trending south

( useless 18z GFS notwithstanding)

THAT huge 500 low is a BIIIG 50/50 but usally these are further North than this one... N or over Newfoundland

this one is well south

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0z 84 HR NAM... just to see GENERAL ideas... Note the MONSTER 50/50 well south of New foundland

this is one of the reason why this low on the recent Models is trending south

( useless 18z GFS notwithstanding)

THAT huge 500 low is a BIIIG 50/50 but usally these are further North than this one... N or over Newfoundland

this one is well south

Sounds familiar.

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The 00z GFS at 48 hours looks nearly identical to the 00z Euro at 72 hours from last night....closed 552 dm low over southern California.

It is now no longer different with the 50-50 low but the main s/w is further south and stronger at 60

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