IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Small differences with the handling of the ULL between the Euro and GFS. GFS being quicker with closing it off over the mid-west and the Euro being slower and not closing off till over New England. Since this has evolved into a mostly Northern stream system, I would give the GFS a slight advantage. Still at day 5 with many runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Great looks like a raw ugly weekend coming up. In better news looks like 60F or better is a lock this Wednesday. Probably stuck in the 40s Fri-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrsfc.gif Cutter 1009mb at the lakes- 1017mb surface low at the del marva- High Pressures weakens at 1031mb into the Atlantic blend them together----it's a recipe for a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 12zEPS looks like this when we get to next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 after st pattys the pattern will turn colder and active winter storm wise again…obv cooler now will be highs in the 40's, but will have threats for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 PAC modified temps- upper air pattern right here......imo day 10 200mb spag http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/12/gefs-spag_npac_240_200_1176_ht.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f312_us.html use of the phrase --THREAD THE NEEDLE should put you in the sin bin for good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 euro has sucked all winter so why believe it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 euro has sucked all winter so why believe it now! OK I agree I will go with the GFS if you say so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 5 day mean anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Eh this has rain event written all over it. All the past cutters that trended to snow/iceevents at least had ensemble support for better high positioning and more of a suppressed track. Looks like we are going to have to deal with this return to seasonal for a bit until that favorable pattern enters post st party's day How much of an influence does this storm, if it cuts like it looks, have on the forecasted -NAO ens are showing? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Although the models don't show it now I feel a storm might be cooking post March 17. When things shift so dramatically there's usually an event to follow. 18z Gfs is showing a more potent cold shot 18-20 now. People should also pay attention to the cold aloft as surface temps will not necessarily seem cold enough for frozen especially on sunny days. However once a low comes into the equation those surface temps would tank and that's how you get those very wet heavy snow thumps late March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The pattern we all see evolves after the weekend storm . If you happen to see flakes with the Sat storm , good for you . It is once the weekend system clears the playing field , things can go wild for 10 days plus . You MAY trap the trough under the block and should see a cut off show up in the last 10 days of the month . Day 9 - 15 are already showing up cold and you are asking for trouble this late in the season with shorter wave lengths with blocking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I just hope we get some long duration heavy rainers in here before the wave lengths shorten in about 6 weeks and synoptic rainfall becomes scarce. Last Spring was a giant bore fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I just hope we get some long duration heavy rainers in here before the wave lengths shorten in about 6 weeks and synoptic rainfall becomes scarce. Last Spring was a giant bore fest. Please don't bring back the pain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 All rain on the Euro, not surprised. GGEM is a cold outlier.wasnt the GFS the outlier just this morning? If you think about it, only the euro didn't have a snow depiction thus far. I still don't know what that means though, wether we get a big snowstorm or rainstorm!?Tbd Edit: sucks that models come out an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Up to 0.50"+ tomorrow night per 00z NAM/GFS and then 1"+ areawide on the GFS for this weekend, all liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Looks like an active and cold pattern might be developing after the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 What are we looking at timing-wise? Is this thing clearing out by Sunday morning? POPs seem to imply it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yep, this weekend looks like a no go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The pattern may very well improve after St. Patty's Day but we're going to have to get through the rain tonight and the rains for Saturday. Sunday depends on the evolution of the ULL and whether or not it closes off to our West/Southwest like earlier model runs were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 It looks like a colder pattern kicks in around next Friday (3/20) if the long range guidance is correct, whether or not it definately lasts the final 11 days of the month and into the first week of April is anyone's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 It looks like a colder pattern kicks in around next Friday (3/20) if the long range guidance is correct, whether or not it definately lasts the final 11 days of the month and into the first week of April is anyone's guesscolder pattern? I doubt the models are right. Spring is in the air guys. No more snow! I doubt we get another inch. We may get some snow showers and flurries as these upcoming systems wind down but a full blown snowstorm I highly doubt it. It's so against the odds. Enjoy spring though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 colder pattern? I doubt the models are right. Spring is in the air guys. No more snow! I doubt we get another inch. We may get some snow showers and flurries as these upcoming systems wind down but a full blown snowstorm I highly doubt it. It's so against the odds. Enjoy spring thoughColder being relative to late March, by the end of the month average highs are into the 50's. You do have a point though, if you look at stats, after 3/21, it becomes increasingly rarer and rarer by the day to get a snowstorm in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 06z GEFS QPF plumes. It's using the river ensemble flood guidance so I can't put in a specific location closer to the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 colder pattern? I doubt the models are right. Spring is in the air guys. No more snow! I doubt we get another inch. We may get some snow showers and flurries as these upcoming systems wind down but a full blown snowstorm I highly doubt it. It's so against the odds. Enjoy spring though Have you looked at the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Colder being relative to late March, by the end of the month average highs are into the 50's. You do have a point though, if you look at stats, after 3/21, it becomes increasingly rarer and rarer by the day to get a snowstorm in this area The pattern will dictate what the atmosphere will do . - EPO- AO-NAO + PNA short wave length patterns trapping the vortex in the east under the block in the east is going to yield a period of mid winter weather again. The time frame is the 20th- 31st . You are going to see a cut off at our latitude and will not get out of this without one more period of winter weather that includes accumulating snow . It does not have to be extremely cold , just cold enough . If you want to correlate late March snows , go back over the past 100 years and find similar 500 mb hemisphere patterns over the last 10 days of March and then we can discuss probability . The EPS GEM GFS ensembles all see it . This 10 day warm up does feel nice , but unfortunately the last 10 -15 days will suck if you hate winter . Then and only then will REAL spring begin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Patterns change on a dime this time of year. It doesn't take much for temps to warm into the 60s. Sure we will have cold stretches back and forth and cannot rule out wet snows but the window is closing and cold is a relative term when average highs are approaching 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The pattern will dictate what the atmosphere will do . - EPO- AO-NAO + PNA short wave length patterns trapping the vortex in the east under the block in the east is going to yield a period of mid winter weather again. The time frame is the 20th- 31st . You are going to see a cut off at our latitude and will not get out of this without one more period of winter weather that includes accumulating snow . It does not have to be extremely cold , just cold enough . If you want to correlate late March snows , go back over the past 100 years and find similar 500 mb hemisphere patterns over the last 10 days of March and then we can discuss probability . The EPS GEM GFS ensembles all see it . This 10 day warm up does feel nice , but unfortunately the last 10 -15 days will suck if you hate winter . Then and only then will REAL spring begin . Maybe we will see another snow after 3/20 but you cannot make absolute guarantees in weather. It's possible it happens and it's possible it's just a below normal period without any snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I was more giddy on this pattern producing a large scale storm when the upper level energy was forecasted to drop into the trough over the plains and reinforce the large closed ULL. Now this has evolved into a weaker ULL, an elongated trough and a northern stream shortwave that doesn't dig nearly deep enough. So the end result appears to be an unraveling ULL with some gulf moisture injection that will ultimately get sheared out and shunted East by the approaching northern stream energy. The strong blocking high that was showing up about five days ago is now nothing more than a distant memory. Overall, very meh and very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Maybe we will see another snow after 3/20 but you cannot make absolute guarantees in weather. It's possible it happens and it's possible it's just a below normal period without any snowstorm It is a forecast backed up by the guidance . No one is certain that it has to snow , but some of you don`t understand what 500 mb patterns like this yield . Too many are stuck on the Calender and not the atmosphere and it`s response and that is an awful approach to solving weather . I just got done reading " I doubt the models are right " . There is too much on front of us to simply dismiss it . It is a potential pattern that could yield a late season cut off that will matter . We are on the verge of turning into spring , but that looks to be 20 days away before we finally put this winter weather behind us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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