bluewave Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 So what's the statistical likelihood that the GFS is correct? The GFS needs one of the other models to switch to its camp the next few days if you want a colder solution since it's rarely correct when its on its own. Absolutely. I'm not really a big fan of this particular set-up. I think the better potential is after this time period. Once the AO drops and the blocking extends over to Greenland later in the month we'll have a 50/50 in place for more wintry precip potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 GFS has several inches of snow for the area this upcoming weekend. DGEX is similiar lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 GFS has several inches of snow for the area this upcoming weekend. DGEX is similiar lol. Yeah it went from 80mm to 300mm of snow with borderline conditions, in the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Looks good for a met spring snowstorm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 All rain this run, much warmer and more progressive (12z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 All rain this run, much warmer and more progressive (12z GFS) GFS has joined the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 GFS has joined the others? I wouldn't say that, it just has rain for this weekend instead of the MECS that it was showing at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I wouldn't say that, it just has rain for this weekend instead of the MECS that it was showing at 06z. Ah, well. Spring is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Still quite a ways off but I think we have to address the realistic possibility that their could be significant hydro concerns next weekend. 12z GFS is widespread 1-2" amounts with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Still quite a ways off but I think we have to address the realistic possibility that their could be significant hydro concerns next weekend. 12z GFS is widespread 1-2" amounts with locally higher amounts.honestly I doubt we get any flooding as this is not a flooding rainstorm. The snow cover will be mostly gone by the time this storm even moves in so its a long ways out plus this morning it showed a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 honesty I doubt we get any flooding as this is not a flooding rainstorm. The snow cover will be mostly gone by the time this storm even moves in so its a long ways out plus this morning it showed a snowstorm. Yeah for sure along the coast it's mall piles that's it. Inland though north slopes will still have allot of snow so there could be issues there. We lucked out with this week to slowly eat the snow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 honesty I doubt we get any flooding as this is not a flooding rainstorm. The snow cover will be mostly gone by the time this storm even moves in so its a long ways out plus this morning it showed a snowstorm. Where are you located? The hydro concerns are for northern NJ, in particular the Passaic and Raritan River systems. The snowpack here is deep and it will take more than a few days in the 50's to melt things here. The rain on Tuesday will be mostly absorbed into the pack adding to the already high water content. Long range ensemble forecasts have a 64% of the Passaic River at Pinebrook reaching minor flood stage before 4/6. The historical average for this date is around 42%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Still quite a ways off but I think we have to address the realistic possibility that their could be significant hydro concerns next weekend. 12z GFS is widespread 1-2" amounts with locally higher amounts. Only concern is if you live in an area that floods. No concern imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Where are you located? The hydro concerns are for northern NJ, in particular the Passaic and Raritan River systems. The snowpack here is deep and it will take more than a few days in the 50's to melt things here. The rain on Tuesday will be mostly absorbed into the pack adding to the already high water content. Long range ensemble forecasts have a 64% of the Passaic River at Pinebrook reaching minor flood stage before 4/6. The historical average for this date is around 42%. Tomorrows rain will be light and it'll move out quick. Less than 0.25"... This weekend we don't even know if we're getting rain or snow at this time. Leaning towards rain as the atmosphere is warming and so it the permafrost. I still think this will end up being a mostly warm and dry spring. I doubt we get any flooding rain anytime soon! New England may have some flooding for sure as their snow pack is double the size of ours. I was out in northeastern Ct this weekend and the snow pack is closer to 2 feet up there and it's much colder than here. Right now the snowpack is taking a hit. Current temp 51 degrees. Melting quicky! Also spring is here folks. Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 And the 12z GGEM shows a third scenario with ice to rain, and a lot of ice. In fact almost the entire event is freezing rain on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Only concern is if you live in an area that floods. No concern imby I don't personally live in a flood area but my entire town essentially gets shut down from flooding. Plus being on the fire department I am heavily involved with evacuations/rescues, so naturally I have a higher awareness than someone that lives up in the mountains like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Tomorrows rain will be light and it'll move out quick. Less than 0.25"... This weekend we don't even know if we're getting rain or snow at this time. Leaning towards rain as the atmosphere is warming and so it the permafrost. I still think this will end up being a mostly warm and dry spring. I doubt we get any flooding rain anytime soon! New England may have some flooding for sure as their snow pack is double the size of ours. I was out in northeastern Ct this weekend and the snow pack is closer to 2 feet up there and it's much colder than here. Right now the snowpack is taking a hit. Current temp 51 degrees. Melting quicky! Also spring is here folks. Enjoy it The snowpack up here is well over a foot with little melting the last few days, and for river flooding that's not even where you look. Have to go up the headwaters near West Milford. According to the Upton Flood Outlook issued this Friday, the snowpack currently contains 2-5" of water equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 GFS warmer, GGEM colder, EURO ?.....expect back and forth on the models for next 2-3 days on the storm until we get close to a consensus for the weekend. Until I see otherwise, why go against the trend that was in place for the winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 What's up with that coastal the gfs keeps trying to spin just offshore around mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 What's up with that coastal the gfs keeps trying to spin just offshore around mid month? That's the cut off low coming off the coast and spinning up another system. A very real possibility if the trailing energy can dig enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 And the 12z GGEM shows a third scenario with ice to rain, and a lot of ice. In fact almost the entire event is freezing rain on the GGEM. GGEM does show a few hours of snow Friday night, before it changes to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 That's the cut off low coming off the coast and spinning up another system. A very real possibility if the trailing energy can dig enough.Wouldn't this lack a cold air source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 GGEM does show a few hours of snow Friday night, before it changes to ice. I'd rather the gfs's version, but we don't get a choice in these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Wouldn't this lack a cold air source? Right now it looks like if that system moved further onshore it would likely be more rain, but hard to tell at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The Euro is already a lot slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 All rain on the Euro, not surprised. GGEM is a cold outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Washout on the Euro on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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