Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Euro ensembles look pretty dry for next weekend, especially compared to the operational and EPS control runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Whenever you shorten the wave lengths and stick the trough under blocking you are inviting trouble. It is just what the atmosphere sometimes does. The models are hinting at blocking by 10. Both ensembles see it . " if " it happens then you are going go wild. The sun may be close to OCT but temps are NOV like But with cold water . The Atlantic is what could lock this off for 2 weeks and put spring on hold until April 1 Yeah, I like the PV getting forced down to the natural 50/50 position around day 10 and beyond on the ensemble means. Beyond April 1st all that cold water is signaling plenty of back door potential. I can't remember seeing SST's this cold south of Long Island in March before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 It about 100% likely the month finishes below normal throughout the NYC area...25% of the month is in the rear view mirror and you already are looking at -10 DFN's. Finishing above normal would be like trying to win the election after you lost Texas, New York, Florida, & California...very close to a mathematical impossibility. She can stay afloat with the first four compartments breached...but not five. From this point forth, Titanic will founder. But this ship can't sink... She's made of iron sir...she can & she will. It is a mathematical certainty. I'll never let go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Yeah, I like the PV getting forced down to the natural 50/50 position around day 10 and beyond on the ensemble means. Beyond April 1st all that cold water is signaling plenty of back door potential. I can't remember seeing SST's this cold south of Long Island in March before. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png I think this could be one of the biggest "backdoor" springs we've had in very long time. Those SSTS are frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 When i read these posts i just want to delete my self and move to the tropics. I HATE THE SNOW AND ICE.. HATE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I'll never let go Jack . . . ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 When i read these posts i just want to delete my self and move to the tropics. I HATE THE SNOW AND ICE.. HATE You're not alone. I do like the occasional snowstorm, but I always hate the aftermath, and I can do without ice. If I moved to a warmer climate (which I'm interested in doing), I wouldn't miss any of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 When i read these posts i just want to delete my self and move to the tropics. I HATE THE SNOW AND ICE.. HATE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 When i read these posts i just want to delete my self and move to the tropics. I HATE THE SNOW AND ICE.. HATE What is there to HATE about snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I think this could be one of the biggest "backdoor" springs we've had in very long time. Those SSTS are frigid I agree one hundred percent. It blows as there is nothing worse then 40s with fog and drizzle in late April/may. Tremendous melting today in the city. North facing shady areas are still at least 8" though I like Vermont for a ton of snow the next couple weeks as elevation becomes important again this time of year. It's possible we sneak in another event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Yanks beat the Nats. Good omen if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 You're not alone. I do like the occasional snowstorm, but I always hate the aftermath, and I can do without ice. If I moved to a warmer climate (which I'm interested in doing), I wouldn't miss any of it. But you told me you *already* reside in a subtropical climate! Yanks beat the Nats. I was shocked that Ruffing outpitched Johnson... *Edit: Shows where my head is...Red Ruffing was still with Boston when Walter Johnson retired; he was traded to the Yankees around 1930, IIRC. If I'm going to fictionalize; I had best do it properly and insert someone like Jack Chesbro to face The Big Train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Yanks beat the Nats. Good omen if you ask me. Yanks unfortunately have NO hitting at all. It's going to be very tough for them IMO to score over 4 runs in a game unless several of the below average hitters on the team (of which there are many) in the regular line-up pull off a huge surprise! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 What is there to HATE about snow? In 2003 i centrally ruptured 2 discs in my spine, a snow related injury. i could not walk for 6 months. I have never been normal since, i seriously damaged my life. Today i spend a lot of money and time to have the snow cleaned up in my long drive way and around my home, one fall and i could lose the ability to walk, for good. I hate the snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 In 2003 i centrally ruptured 2 discs in my spine, a snow related injury. i could not walk for 6 months. I have never been normal since, i seriously damaged my life. Today i spend a lot of money and time to have the snow cleaned up in my long drive way and around my home, one fall and i could lose the ability to walk, for good. I hate the snow and ice. Oy. My mom hates it because of her knees. She can't figure out why I like it so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 But you told me you *already* reside in a subtropical climate! I was shocked that Ruffing outpitched Johnson... *Edit: Shows where my head is...Red Ruffing was still with Boston when Walter Johnson retired; he was traded to the Yankees around 1930, IIRC. If I'm going to fictionalize; I had best do it properly and insert someone like Jack Chesbro to face The Big Train. "Yanks beat Nats" Pamela, I believe Chesbro was never a "Yank". Back then they were called the Highlanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Great model thread. And for those that hate winter, screw Off. This is the NYC forum and summer sucks here. Humidity, stench of garbage, bums smell bummier, bugs, allergies... Keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 What is there to HATE about snow? Well, the snow piles on most NYC streets would probably qualify as Superfund cleanup sites at this point. If you could melt all that and keep Central Park like it is right now, I'd be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 MJO Looks great moving forward for possible snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 "Yanks beat Nats" Pamela, I believe Chesbro was never a "Yank". Back then they were called the Highlanders. Yep...but same franchise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Great model thread. We're in the midst of a lull...which allows for a fraction more creative license than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Even though it's not worth much at all, 00z gfs brings friday/saturday's heavier snows further south into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Even though it's not worth much at all, 00z gfs brings friday/saturday's heavier snows further south into CT It's not done trending. I'm not discussing it until Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Yanks beat the Nats. Good omen if you ask me. We played with one starter and you barely beat us because we used a non roster invite to pitch the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 6z gfs nice snowstorm for the area....trend of colder/stronger high continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 6z gfs nice snowstorm for the area....trend of colder/stronger high continues... The 00z Euro is not even close to this look, it tracks over LI. But here is where the 6z gfs goes, what's a few hundred miles between friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Where's PB and DM when you need 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The 00z Euro is not even close to this look, it tracks over LI. But here is where the 6z gfs goes, what's a few hundred miles between friends gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png The key to the whole forecast is the location of the high to the north. The GFS is currently the only model which keeps it anchored over New England allowing a colder solution. The Euro/CMC/Ukmet track the high further east offshore allowing the low and warmer temps to track further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The key to the whole forecast is the location of the high to the north. The GFS is currently the only model which keeps it anchored over New England allowing a colder solution. The Euro/CMC/Ukmet track the high further east offshore allowing the low and warmer temps to track further north. So what's the statistical likelihood that the GFS is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The key to the whole forecast is the location of the high to the north. The GFS is currently the only model which keeps it anchored over New England allowing a colder solution. The Euro/CMC/Ukmet track the high further east offshore allowing the low and warmer temps to track further north. Absolutely. I'm not really a big fan of this particular set-up. I think the better potential is after this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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