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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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Highs mainly in the 50s now for next 7-10 days. It's definitely over now no more cold and snow even lows are forecast to be just above freezing.

 

Ah...if only it were true. Just like no one wants 90 degree temperatures lingering into late September, I don't want winter cold and snow lingering into late March.

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Highs mainly in the 50s now for next 7-10 days. It's definitely over now no more cold and snow even lows are forecast to be just above freezing.

Good to see the trend is toward spring

 

Weenies abound this morning.

 

It feels quite toasty outside, but there's really not much to do... the fishing holes are all frozen two feet thick, for instance. Boring stretch of wx.

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Wow at comparing a day 10 thru 15 500 mb map to a 300 hour map.

The height of stupidity

"Spring can really hang you up the most"

                                  Ricki Lee Jones

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_ussm_animation.html

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

DAY 10 ENS comp

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015030800/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

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Now pull out to the hemisphere and see the pos PNA and look at what 11 thru 15 go to on the euro.

11 thru 15 have a deeper trough than the GFS

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Now pull out to the hemisphere and see the pos PNA and look at what 11 thru 15 go to on the euro.

11 thru 15 have a deeper trough than the GFS

 

I mean, you've seen this right?  You understand how changing wave lengths in Spring alters how things like the PNA, NAO, EPO etc affect our weather?

 

This is the composite for March with a positive PNA:

PNApos_03mar.png

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Now pull out to the hemisphere and see the pos PNA and look at what 11 thru 15 go to on the euro.

11 thru 15 have a deeper trough than the GFS

PB

listen.... why ya buggin???

 

secret agenda???   :pepsi:

 

 

Day 10 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015030800/gem-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

 

gefs-spag_npac_384_200_1176_ht.gif

it will not snow again in the metro this month

not from the guidance I trust

 

dm

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Chris and I actually know each other so I don't mind slugging it out with him.

I thought you quit ? However you conflate passion with bullying.

Here's a little secret it's ok to make a forecast, be wrong and get Sht for it.

If I am wrong Chris can come back here and crush me and it will be his right .

I was told by Forky I suck 5 years ago .It didn't bother I didn't write a farewell to the board I laughed and just kept on keeping on .

When I am wrong I am the 1st one on here saying so. Grow thicker skin it's a weather board.

If someone throws mud throw it back and then move on.

 

That's kind of the attitude you have to have on here.  When it comes down to it, our hobby involves something over which we have ZERO control.  It is what it is.

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Lol. Always.

You need to start looking at the Atlantic side. The shortening of the wave lengths under potential blocking Is how it cold happen.

The trough could get trapped in the east under those higher heights. We will see DM

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That's kind of the attitude you have to have on here.  When it comes down to it, our hobby involves something over which we have ZERO control.  It is what it is.

Agree and feel to come hard over the next 20 days and when it's over we will hug it out.

DM and I went to war in DEC and he and I speak all the time and we are friends.

Taking this stiff personally would b nuts.

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Agree and feel to come hard over the next 20 days and when it's over we will hug it out.

DM and I went to war in DEC and he and I speak all the time and we are friends.

Taking this stiff personally would b nuts.

 

Ha, you guys might be starting a round 2.   DM came to play today.

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