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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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Well, well, what have we here?

 

That's 3 significant storms in April in the last 33 years.

 

Extremely rare? Hardly.

 

I had completely forgotten about this one. Thank you Northshore.

 

Well, well, I believe we were discussing NYC proper (i.e. KNYC), and 0.7" does not constitute significant by any reasonable stretch.

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Well, well, I believe we were discussing NYC proper (i.e. KNYC), and 0.7" does not constitute significant by any reasonable stretch.

 

Well, well, well, the last time I checked JFK was part of NYC, and 4.0 inches or up is significant for April 10th.

 

Unless there has been a successful cession movement in southern Queens in the last 24 hours that I'm not aware of I believe the storm Northshore referenced qualifies. And I’m not even mentioning the storms Isotherm referenced.

 

Three storms in 33 years hardly qualifies as extremely rare, and that's just in NYC proper. If we expand beyond those borders the floodgates really open.

 

However as I said earlier maybe it's just semantics and 3 significant storms in 33 years qualifies as extremely rare by your definition. It's all good.

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Well, well, well, the last time I checked JFK was part of NYC, and 4.0 inches or up is significant for April 10th.

 

Unless there has been a successful cession movement in southern Queens in the last 24 hours that I'm not aware of I believe the storm Northshore referenced qualifies. And I’m not even mentioning the storms Isotherm referenced.

 

Three storms in 33 years hardly qualifies as extremely rare, and that's just in NYC proper. If we expand beyond those borders the floodgates really open.

 

However as I said earlier maybe it's just semantics and 3 significant storms in 33 years qualifies as extremely rare by your definition. It's all good.

 

The one thing that you can say is the 6" or greater April snowfalls in NYC have become very rare after WW2.

 

NYC  April 6" snows 

 

1875

1915

1917

1924

1938

1944

1982

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How about April 25th, 1983?

NYC had winter storm warnings hoisted and we received a couple of inches of snow as NW Jersey received over half a foot.

 

Anybody recall this?

I do (the snow....not the WSW) .  2" on LI.

 

I also recall one around that same date in April 1986 that was rain in NYC but up to 20" in a few locations in western NJ.

 

EDIT: Video from 4/23/1986 (I-84 in the Poconos shut down):

 

http://wnep.com/2012/04/23/april-snowstorm-1986/

 

More on this storm:

 

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2012/04/weather-history-april-1986-snow.html

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The only thing that I'm hoping for is active weather if it's going to be warm. And yeah I wouldn't get so giddy about consistent warmth for all you coastal folks either with a still frigid ocean out there.

Too many times have forecasts called for warm and sunny only to end up 50 or lower and foggy and showery.

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Let's hope not

-epo would be great in April and the rest of spring and summer for all I care. It would result a cooler than average summer which is always good. Who in their right minds likes 99 degrees with 50% humidity or higher. Come on. A negative epo would give us an average to even below average summer like last summer. Last summer was actually decent! Only one heat wave!
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ECMWF weeklies flip the pattern to a predominately +EPO for mid and late April, effectively erasing the arctic chill from W Canada. However, I don't like the persistent negative height anomalies progged over SE Canada throughout the period. This tends to implicate surface high pressure hanging out near Maine/Nova Scotia, and given the snow cover / cold SST's, that high pressure will probably be enhanced more than usual. In fact, it's a pretty unfavorable look for New England / coastal Northeast sustained warmth prospects. I think we're definitely going to see a significant improvement, but we're going to be very backdoor prone w/ the SE Canadian trough pattern. We'll probably be back and forth / near normal overall for mid/late April w/ the warmth trying to balloon from the SW and backdoors fighting down the coast. April's final temp departures are liable to be colder than normal for the Northeast US due to a chilly Apr 1-10, and enough cooling from backdoors to prevent prolonged positive departures. The CFS V2 illustrates this well. I like its depiction overall for the CONUS.

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20150330.201504.gif

 

 

 

 

ECMWF weeklies backdoor potential with the cool air lurking to our NE.

 

j0fdxc.png

 

 

2j0cinr.png

 

 

2gse8wo.png

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Guest Pamela

How about April 25th, 1983?

NYC had winter storm warnings hoisted and we received a couple of inches of snow as NW Jersey received over half a foot.

 

Anybody recall this?

 

Close, it was actually April 19th - 20th, 1983.  Up to 3 inches on Long Island.  Albany had 8 inches before they went to rain...New England was mostly rain as the storm hugged the coast...huge snows in the Poconos & NW Jersey.  Really, just two days prior to this storm, there was a  flooding rainstorm over Jersey that changed to snow in NW CT and put down up to 8 inches or so in Litchfield County. 

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hmm that little shortwave looks juicy and falling dew points with incoming cold,i like my chances for a bit of snow around here later on tonight.might bare watching because no one has even mentioned a possible rapid bomb developing once it hits the open waters of the Atlantic. n.y.c and l.i are in the positive bust zone with this one. :whistle:

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0z Euro backed off the highs for Friday a bit as the storm will track a little closer to the region 

with less WAA during the day. Day 6-10 also shows high pressure pressing from the 

north as the warm front approaches so there are back door issues. This is how the 

SST's in the upper 30's come into play with very cool onshore flow just ahead 

of where the warm front stalls out. It's the type of  back door pattern with

troughing near or just east of New England that the CFS is picking up on

for April. At this time during 2012 the SST's were in the upper 40's instead of

the upper 30's.

 

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Close, it was actually April 19th - 20th, 1983.  Up to 3 inches on Long Island.  Albany had 8 inches before they went to rain...New England was mostly rain as the storm hugged the coast...huge snows in the Poconos & NW Jersey.  Really, just two days prior to this storm, there was a  flooding rainstorm over Jersey that changed to snow in NW CT and put down up to 8 inches or so in Litchfield County. 

You are 100% right, it was 4.19 to 4.20 1983

I do believe though that was the latest date a WSW was ever hoisted for NYC though.

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