Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

We had one of our coldest months on record (which is insane for the 21st Century) and a top 10 snowy March (and the park got another 50"+ winter).  What on Earth are you complaining about?

It time for heat and Tstorms . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

umm...it's April 5th by Easter.    Snow is a longshot by that date to say the least.

 

But certainly it’s not unprecedented either.

 

The April 6, 1982 Blizzard, saw 9.6 inches in Central park and 10-16 inches area wide in the HV and parts of LI and NNJ. Opening Day at Yankee Stadium was pushed back three days. The morning of April 7 saw a low of 19 in NYC.

 

April 4, 2003 there was 4.0 inches in Central Park and 4-6 throughout the city. Opening Day at Yankee stadium was canceled. They played the day after with snow on the Bronx rooftops and a game time temperature of 34 degrees.

 

Those are off the top of my head, I’m sure Uncle W could add several others.

 

In the HV there are numerous additional examples.

 

It’s not common, but not as rare as you think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But certainly it’s not unprecedented either.

 

The April 6, 1982 Blizzard, saw 9.6 inches in Central park and 10-16 inches area wide in the HV and parts of LI and NNJ. Opening Day at Yankee Stadium was pushed back three days. The morning of April 7 saw a low of 19 in NYC.

 

April 4, 2003 there was 4.0 inches in Central Park and 4-6 throughout the city. Opening Day at Yankee stadium was canceled. They played the day after with snow on the Bronx rooftops and a game time temperature of 34 degrees.

 

Those are off the top of my head, I’m sure Uncle W could add several others.

 

In the HV there are numerous additional examples.

 

It’s not common, but not as rare as you think.

 

A handful of times over the course of a century and a half means it's nearly unprecedented.   Is a T of snow unprecedented in April?  Of course not.  Is meaningful accumulation (>6")?  Pretty damn near close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A handful of times over the course of a century and a half means it's nearly unprecedented.   Is a T of snow unprecedented in April?  Of course not.  Is meaningful accumulation (>6")?  Pretty damn near close.

 

 

2003 is the only significant April snowstorm we've had in the last 32 years. So yeah, it's extremely rare and no one should be getting hopes up for an April snowstorm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2003 is the only significant April snowstorm we've had in the last 32 years. So yeah, it's extremely rare and no one should be getting hopes up for an April snowstorm.

 

It's convenient you use 1983 as your cutoff. I could say NYC has had two significant April storms in the last 33 years, it doesn't sound quite so rare then does it? And why do we just limit the storms to Central Park? It's a pretty large area we cover.

 

There have been 11 Aprils with 4 or more inches of snow in NYC, 9 of them before the 1970's and only 2 afterwards. It's semantics I suppose but I say it's not common but I wouldn't call it rare. Outside NYC in the HV it's not rare at all, using my definition of rare.

 

We agree to disagree.

 

Anyhow with that being said I don't think it will snow on Easter weekend in NYC but N and W has a shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our 1st 70 showing up for Friday  on the 12z EURO 

 

One of those early spring days per the 12z Euro where the city and NNJ reaches 70 while

Long Beach peaks near 50 with southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph off SST's still in the upper 30's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of those early spring days per the 12z Euro where the city and NNJ reaches 70 while

Long Beach peaks near 50 with southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph off SST's still in the upper 30's.

Yeh 50 KISP 70 EWR .  Looks about right . ha 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of those early spring days per the 12z Euro where the city and NNJ reaches 70 while

Long Beach peaks near 50 with southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph off SST's still in the upper 30's.

On that flow even the park is going to have trouble getting much past 60. Ewr is a different story. I would want to see a Wsw flow to get the park to 70
Link to comment
Share on other sites

this is a total reversal of the winter pattern. goodbye arctic airmasses

f240.gif

 

 

Should be warmer relative to normal by mid month, but I'm still concerned about backdoor potential w/ the mid level trough in SE Canada. Euro shows that possibility in the week of Easter w/ sfc highs in Quebec and an active STJ. Could have a couple cold rain events before we break completely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tropical forcing should become favorable for more sustained mid level ridging in the Plains/Eastern US by week 2 as subsidence begins to overtake the dateline region. Still would watch for backdoor potential with the trough to our northeast, but overall I think it will finally feel like spring on a more consistent basis by mid April.

 

weeks1to2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On that flow even the park is going to have trouble getting much past 60. Ewr is a different story. I would want to see a Wsw flow to get the park to 70

 

The 12Z Euro has enough of a SW flow that 70 makes it to NYC this run. But the temps fall off

quickly as you head east across LI.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But certainly it’s not unprecedented either.

 

The April 6, 1982 Blizzard, saw 9.6 inches in Central park and 10-16 inches area wide in the HV and parts of LI and NNJ. Opening Day at Yankee Stadium was pushed back three days. The morning of April 7 saw a low of 19 in NYC.

 

April 4, 2003 there was 4.0 inches in Central Park and 4-6 throughout the city. Opening Day at Yankee stadium was canceled. They played the day after with snow on the Bronx rooftops and a game time temperature of 34 degrees.

 

Those are off the top of my head, I’m sure Uncle W could add several others.

 

In the HV there are numerous additional examples.

 

It’s not common, but not as rare as you think.

 

 

 

In addition to 1996, there's also:

 

April 1st 1997 - a double digit storm into WCNJ

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html

 

April 9th 2000 - a 3-6" storm for much of NJ

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/09-Apr-00.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...