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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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This will probably finish as the 2nd coldest March at my station going back to 1977, with only 1984 colder.

 

 

Through today I'm at a 36.4F mean, -4.7 below normal. That mean temperature is more akin to December's normal.

 

Impressive stretch of cold means since November:

 

Nov: 43.2

Dec: 40.2

Jan: 29.0

Feb: 22.2

Mar: 36.4

 

That's a 5-month mean of 34.2F (-3.3 departure), and a meteorological winter DJF mean of 30.5F (-2.9 departure).

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Through today I'm at a 36.4F mean, -4.7 below normal. That mean temperature is more akin to December's normal.

 

Impressive stretch of cold means since November:

 

Nov: 43.2

Dec: 40.2

Jan: 29.0

Feb: 22.2

Mar: 36.4

 

That's a 5-month mean of 34.2F (-3.3 departure), and a meteorological winter DJF mean of 30.5F (-2.9 departure).

Will easily be the coldest Jan-Mar period here...about 1 degree lower than 1978.
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Albany seems keen to toss the snowier solutions even way up here. I think for this event you really want some meaningful elevation... or a sharper shortwave trough I guess.

 

WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE.

 

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Easter storm is warm. This epic pattern is going to fail.

 

Snow admittedly It's not looking good for Brooklyn. There's still wiggle room in there but not much for you.

 

Well N and W I still think has a shot, it's still 5 days off and this path isn't set in stone yet. If you take todays runs just about everyone sees rain.

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