Isotherm Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 I'll believe the clipper idea when a model other than the gfs or cmc show it. They have been flip flopping like fishes out of water recently with wild swings from model run to model run Even if it occurs at night, my concern with the clipper is the lack of robust vv's associated w/ it. Snow could have a difficult time sticking even at night if it's 34F / -SN. There's a chance this system trends more interesting, but I'm more focused on the 4/4-4/5 potential which could involve a stronger short wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Even if it occurs at night, my concern with the clipper is the lack of robust vv's associated w/ it. Snow could have a difficult time sticking even at night if it's 34F / -SN. There's a chance this system trends more interesting, but I'm more focused on the 4/4-4/5 potential which could involve a stronger short wave.2 days ago Tom I didn't like the look of the weekend system , But if the block can work it's way S in the means then I would favor the GFS over the Euro . I expect the Euro to get away from the cuter idea over the next few days with those heights in the PAC you are still pressing HP through the lakes. It's possible for the SE ridge to relax enough to see this come S . The neg EPO connected through the Caspian argues for that trough to dig In the east. Once to April 10 ish that trough should pull back and then the SE ridge should show up , but not until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 The 12z Euro is too weak on the lead wave and it doesn't suppress SE Ridge enough so the second low rides too far north. We need a GFS version where the first low is stronger so the second low could track further south with the Arctic high pressing down form the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Even if it occurs at night, my concern with the clipper is the lack of robust vv's associated w/ it. Snow could have a difficult time sticking even at night if it's 34F / -SN. There's a chance this system trends more interesting, but I'm more focused on the 4/4-4/5 potential which could involve a stronger short wave.Right, plus it has less than robust QPF to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Euro doesnt want to end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Euro doesnt want to end winter Keeps it cold but no Accumulating snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Keeps it cold but no Accumulating snows There are chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 It looks like we'll have 2 shots before it's all said and done. It may be nothing at all of course but who knows. I won't have a problem with it as spring snow is mostly aesthetically pleasing without being troublesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 There are chances Never said there wasn't, just doesn't show any accumulating snows as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Never said there wasn't, just doesn't show any accumulating snows as of now Should have just said "Keeps it cold, with chances of accumulating snow" but I get what you meant the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Should have just said "Keeps it cold, with chances of accumulating snow" but I get what you meant the first time.lol I said exactly what the model shows, it wasn't a forcast, it was an observation. As of now 12z euro had no accumulating snow, I think one could argue every model run during winter where cold is present has a "chance", I mean .000006% is a chance lolI was much less vague Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 2 days ago Tom I didn't like the look of the weekend system , But if the block can work it's way S in the means then I would favor the GFS over the Euro . I expect the Euro to get away from the cuter idea over the next few days with those heights in the PAC you are still pressing HP through the lakes. It's possible for the SE ridge to relax enough to see this come S . The neg EPO connected through the Caspian argues for that trough to dig In the east. Once to April 10 ish that trough should pull back and then the SE ridge should show up , but not until then. Euro 500mb isn't a bad look at all. PNA mid level ridge axis up through the classic Boise ID position, -EPO/-AO w/ high heights across the pole, and a transient east based -NAO. Shift the PV a bit further south and it goes from a good to great look. Also - I agree on the probable pattern transition in the April 10th-15th period. Looks like we may finally lose the -EPO, at least for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Euro 500mb isn't a bad look at all. PNA mid level ridge axis up through the classic Boise ID position, -EPO/-AO w/ high heights across the pole, and a transient east based -NAO. Shift the PV a bit further south and it goes from a good to great look. Also - I agree on the probable pattern transition in the April 10th-15th period. Looks like we may finally lose the -EPO, at least for a period. As long as the PDO is as + as it is, I doubt the -EPO is going anywhere for long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 18z GFS is south with the clipper for Wednesday, pretty poor consistency. Edit: City does get some snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Flakes flying around. All I wanted today, wish came true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Snowing rather decently now. Im in Rye brook for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Euro is a terrible model in the north east with winter storms. Trashy model with east coast storms that fails. Worst 2 years ever for the model. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Euro is a terrible model in the north east with winter storms. Trashy model with east coast storms that fails. Worst 2 years ever for the model. Best Thats funny because the Euro is the highest ranked model And its getting upgraded http://thevane.gawker.com/europeans-upgrading-already-superior-weather-model-just-1693915663 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 March Dep's (thru (3/28) NYC: -4.1 EWR: -4.4 LGA: -4.2 JFK: -3.8 TTN: -4.9 PHL: -4.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 March Dep's (thru (3/28) NYC: -4.1 EWR: -4.4 LGA: -4.2 JFK: -3.8 TTN: -4.9 PHL: -4.3 Thank you. I was just going to ask this. What's the Q1 departure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 This was he 3rd March in a row with below normal temperatures for NYC. 2015...-4.1...so far 2014...-4.8.. Apr....-0.7....May...+1.6.... first 70....4/11....first 80...5/10.first 90....7/2 2013...-.2.4..Apr....-0.0....May...+0.4.....First 70...4/8......first 80...4/9...first 90...5/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 GFS 12z shows two possible snow events for the area for the next 150 hours...take a look, one clipper and than a SWFE... Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Tuesday night looks to be a light rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Spring lovers must be pulling there hair out over this weather…lol Looks like a very late bloom and green up this spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Tuesday night looks to be a light rain event. Light mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Spring lovers must be pulling there hair out over this weather…lol Looks like a very late bloom and green up this spring... To have a third consecutive cold start to spring after the two warmest springs on record in 2010 and 2012 is quite a reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Tuesday night looks to be a light rain event.Yep light showers, basically a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 This was he 3rd March in a row with below normal temperatures for NYC. 2015...-4.1...so far 2014...-4.8.. Apr....-0.7....May...+1.6.... first 70....4/11....first 80...5/10.first 90....7/2 2013...-.2.4..Apr....-0.0....May...+0.4.....First 70...4/8......first 80...4/9...first 90...5/30 This will probably finish as the 2nd coldest March at my station going back to 1977, with only 1984 colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 it will be the first time since 1941 that NYC had two consecutive March's averaging in the 30's and the first time since 1978 with a February averaging in the 20's and March in the 30's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 This will probably finish as the 2nd coldest March at my station going back to 1977, with only 1984 colder. On March 29th, 2012 the SST at the bouy south of Far Rockaway was 48 degrees and only 38 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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