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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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Right. Tom s point about stretching the baroclinic zone far enough south is what we would need but there is resistance there at 18k feet and the ridge looks right to me.

It's so late I would only bite if I saw a 2 or 3 SD block and I don't.

 

I guess you had to expect the EPO/PNA blocking to relax at some point for a time after the incredible run this winter.

But the Long Island spring lovers may be in for a wait despite the Pacific relaxation with the tendency for

troughing near or just off the Northeast coast to linger showing up in the long term forecasts for April.

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I guess you had to expect the EPO/PNA blocking to relax at some point after the incredible run this winter.

But the Long Island spring lovers may be in for a wait despite the Pacific relaxation with the tendency for

troughing near or just off the Northeast coast to linger showing up in the long term forecasts for April.

Could see a day  in April when its 80 at EWR and 55 at KISP .

 

But I agree all that cold water will make for a crappy April overall right along the coast .

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Could see a day  in April when its 80 at EWR and 55 at KISP .

 

But I agree all that cold water will make for a crappy April overall right along the coast .

 

Yeah, it really doesn't take much for a warm surge to make it up the I-95 corridor 

in April and leave sections east of NYC with a cool onshore flow while they break 

out the shorts away from the coast.

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Could see a day in April when its 80 at EWR and 55 at KISP .

But I agree all that cold water will make for a crappy April overall right along the coast .

I'm wondering if we may see some intense thunderstorms form because of this once the warm/humid weather finally hits, with the sea breeze fronts pushing in. It should spark off some pretty intense diurnal convective cells in the afternoon. That cold water is going to get a pretty intense sea/land temperature gradient setup. I would imagine some nasty offshore cells at night too with land breezes
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I'm wondering if we may see some intense thunderstorms form because of this once the warm/humid weather finally hits, with the sea breeze fronts pushing in. It should spark off some pretty intense diurnal convective cells in the afternoon. That cold water is going to get a pretty intense sea/land temperature gradient setup. I would imagine some nasty offshore cells at night too with land breezes

Away from the coast .

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The 12z Euro brings in some snow on the 31st into April 1st with a clipper.

So the April snow fans could get some love if the storm lingers past midnight.

Yeh . The GEM is further S . The Euro is .3 over 12 hours . Looks like wet snow showers . The 850s are fine the BL at 108  it is 39 .1  at 114 it is 35   .2

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Away from the coast .

Oh yea I agree, the coast is a long way from seeing warmth between backdoors and sea breeze fronts with all those cold ssts. Inland by day and and offshore by night may get some good light shows, storms from sea and land breeze convergence respectively
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Yeh . The GEM is further S . The Euro is .3 over 12 hours . Looks like wet snow showers . The 850s are fine the BL at 108  it is 39 .1  at 114 it is 35   .2

 

People won't be happy if Central Park registers a T and the airports 0.1" to 0.3". ;)

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The weather looks really pleasant after the weekend. Looks seasonable with mostly 50s and even some lower 60s.

I don't even see any below freezing days so the growing season should finally begin to kick off.

The next two weeks looks active, nothing excessive precip wise but plenty of storm chances.

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Oh yea I agree, the coast is a long way from seeing warmth between backdoors and sea breeze fronts with all those cold ssts. Inland by day and and offshore by night may get some good light shows, storms from sea and land breeze convergence respectively

Late summer night offshore thunderstorms might be one of the most amazing/beautiful weather events to watch imo. I've watched storms that were over 120 miles offshore and its just a great sight to watch. 

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Its crazy how snow is literally just to our east. I wonder if it will pivot into the city.

Edit: nvm just took a look at the radar loop it literally just shifted east

 

The seasonal trend has been your friend on Long Island.

 

EWR....46.4"

LGA.....53.8"

ISP......62.2"

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So this will be a LI special it seems

 

This winter has been interesting in that the trough axis has been just far enough east to favor Long Island and

especially New England when the snow machine got turned on back in late January.

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