PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I didn't think you would and that you did a good job this month goes without saying.. I think you should clarify that 80 call as NYC west and LGA. For JFK east to hit 80 this April would take an epic epic sea east ridge mega downslope west wind torch from the depths of hell! I think as the trough backs up week 2 thru 4 you will start to see the SE ridge pop ahead of LP when SLP heads to the lakes. For LI you can forget 80. I am talking about places like EWR and KNYC touching 80 for the 1st time for a day when that SE ridge flexes it's muscle. But no way anything extended . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 gfs looks more like winter than spring moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Big easter snowstorm on the gfsI have not posted once on any snow over this weekend as I never bought how the models bent precip back w SLP running SE of the area. The GFS lost your IVT with just 36 hours to go . I would not be worrying about 216 hours solutions in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Big easter snowstorm on the gfs As excellent of a setup as you'll see in early April. This has been on the model for several runs already so I do believe we'll see some kind of storm around that time. Chances are it'll be rain but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 gfs looks more like winter than spring moving forward We're expecting temps in the 50s all next week. Not exactly warm, but not winter-like either. We'll see if winter makes a comeback Easter weekend with colder temps and a storm. That's a long way off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 As excellent of a setup as you'll see in early April. This has been on the model for several runs already so I do believe we'll see some kind of storm around that time. Chances are it'll be rain but who knows. Shades of April 6, 1982. 10-12 inches in NYC, 9.6 in CPK but we all know how that goes, and Yankees opening day was delayed four days to clear the snow. The HV and NNJ had 12-20 inches. It's happened before it can happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Big easter snowstorm on the gfs Snowstorm for you guys? I don't see it verbatim. The chance exists though if the pattern can get blocky and there can be a phase in the right spot. Selfishly, I'm rooting for a boring pattern so we can lock into a warm regime down here. The 80s this week were awesome, hope that continues. Mid next week looks like we can make a run at 90 with 20c 850mb temps. The big NE storm scenario sends a wicked cold front down with strong north winds and highs that can't get above 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Went to sleep it was 61, woke up and now its 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Shades of April 6, 1982. 10-12 inches in NYC, 9.6 in CPK but we all know how that goes, and Yankees opening day was delayed four days to clear the snow. The HV and NNJ had 12-20 inches. It's happened before it can happen again. Yes, but no likely here without blocking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Long Island and New England typically do better with Norluns and that's what the RGEM is showing. The hope over the next 24 hrs is that this doesn't shift much further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Long Island and New England typically do better with Norluns and that's what the RGEM is showing. The hope over the next 24 hrs is that this doesn't shift much further NE. SN_000-048_0000.gif When was the last time NYC got into a norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Long Island and New England typically do better with Norluns and that's what the RGEM is showing. The hope over the next 24 hrs is that this doesn't shift much further NE. SN_000-048_0000.gif Yes this this a much more believable scenario, NYC has been on a nice trend this season with snowfall but not norluns, Central Long Island east into NE should be the winners here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Yes, but no likely here without blocking . I doubt something on par with the magnitude of April 1982 will occur, but the possibility of a meaningful snow event does exist. I disagree that there's no blocking. Strong mid level ridging from the EPO domain across the Arctic will induce a -EPO/-AO couplet for the April 2nd-5th period, providing cross polar flow and sufficient cold air availability. The pattern is there; the question becomes, what are the more specific intricacies of the storm track. The MJO continues propagating through amplified P1-2 which supports the idea of troughiness / storminess potential in the East. One of the patterns on the analogs for early April is 2003, which produced a significant snowfall with a +NAO. Again, nothing may occur, but the pattern is favorable and blocky enough for it to occur in my opinion. April 1982 had a moderately positive AO and a negative NAO. For the upcoming period we'll have the inverse; a negative AO and a positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I doubt something on par with the magnitude of April 1982 will occur, but the possibility of a meaningful snow event does exist. I disagree that there's no blocking. Strong mid level ridging from the EPO domain across the Arctic will induce a -EPO/-AO couplet for the April 2nd-5th period, providing cross polar flow and sufficient cold air availability. The pattern is there; the question becomes, what are the more specific intricacies of the storm track. The MJO continues propagating through amplified P1-2 which supports the idea of troughiness / storminess potential in the East. One of the patterns on the analogs for early April is 2003, which produced a significant snowfall with a +NAO. Again, nothing may occur, but the pattern is favorable and blocky enough for it to occur in my opinion. April 1982 had a moderately positive AO and a negative NAO. For the upcoming period we'll have the inverse; a negative AO and a positive NAO. Tommy for me the position of that positive favors New England more than 40 N .If it shows up further S in the means then sure. But for me it looks like a bit N for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 When was the last time NYC got into a norlun?march 2013 with 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 April 4th - 6th interests me...if we can get timing of the shortwaves to work out, unlike they have recently.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Long Island and New England typically do better with Norluns and that's what the RGEM is showing. The hope over the next 24 hrs is that this doesn't shift much further NE. SN_000-048_0000.gif Yeah this one has consistently been on the models. And focused somewhere on Long Island. Might be central, eastern, but probably somewhere on Long Island should get a bit of snow. Hopefully this holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Yeah this one has consistently been on the models. And focused somewhere on Long Island. Might be central, eastern, but probably somewhere on Long Island should get a bit of snow. Hopefully this holds Hopefully it doesn't and we all get snow but it looks like SNE will get it once again. I hate them so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 12z Rgem is very solid for a lot of LI and CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 unless rates are heavy it will mostly be white rain. sfc temps are borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 In terms of next weekend, the 5 th my birthday of all days..... Going be extremely windy to just looking at how close the lines are too each other. With a lot of ground really soggy/muddy won't be good for some trees if it's bad enough I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Tommy for me the position of that positive favors New England more than 40 N . If it shows up further S in the means then sure. But for me it looks like a bit N for my liking. I think it will come down to good timing b/t short waves. If we can get the first wave 4/2 to suppress heights enough so that the following wave rides further south, there will be a chance for snow. Of course given the time of year, nothing may occur, and not every favorable pattern must produce. However, I would say that there's a "heightened probability" for one more snow event in that 3rd-6th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I think it will come down to good timing b/t short waves. If we can get the first wave 4/2 to suppress heights enough so that the following wave rides further south, there will be a chance for snow. Of course given the time of year, nothing may occur, and not every favorable pattern must produce. However, I would say that there's a "heightened probability" for one more snow event in that 3rd-6th period. The problem is as the wave lengths are shorter that ridge may force this to the lakes and then you end up with a FROPA . 4- 2 Then what is at that the base of that trough on the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 And with the ridge so far east , I don`t see anything but a fast flow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I Agree though we should keep an eye out , but it is not something that jumps out at me , like all the other have from 7 plus days away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I Agree though we should keep an eye out , but it is not something that jumps out at me , like all the other have from 7 plus days away . It could actually turn into a very stormy period in early April as the EPO goes more neutral or weakly positive and the PNA negative with a fire hose Pacific jet crossing the US. All the best blocking shifting back toward Siberia can easily put us on the wrong side of the SE Ridge gradient letting systems cut too the Lakes or ride the Apps. I guess you would want to see a strong enough storm to suppress the SE ridge long enough for a second wave to overrun the cold air and allow some late season April snow with perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I Agree though we should keep an eye out , but it is not something that jumps out at me , like all the other have from 7 plus days away .Good job this winter, you turned out right, nailed it, I busted, so did a bunch of others. Real complicated pattern we had this winter. I think after this weekend, it's over, it seems like you do too, so we finally agree lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Twin forks special on the Euro. Nothing much West of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 It could actually turn into a very stormy period in early April as the EPO goes more neutral or weakly positive and the PNA negative with a fire hose Pacific jet crossing the US. All the best blocking shifting back toward Siberia can easily put us on the wrong side of the SE Ridge gradient letting systems cut too the Lakes or ride the Apps. I guess you would want to see a strong enough storm to suppress the SE ridge long enough for a second wave to overrun the cold air and allow some late season April snow with perfect timing. Right. Tom s point about stretching the baroclinic zone far enough south is what we would need but there is resistance there at 18k feet and the ridge looks right to me. It's so late I would only bite if I saw a 2 or 3 SD block and I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Good job this winter, you turned out right, nailed it, I busted, so did a bunch of others. Real complicated pattern we had this winter. I think after this weekend, it's over, it seems like you do too, so we finally agree lol Thank you. I just don't see it. Doesn't mean it can't happen. I Just don't like the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.