forkyfork Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 nam bufkit for tomorrow afternoon shows dense fog and low 50s east of the hudson while west of there is sunny and close to 70f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Tony, snow is likely Friday night / Saturday...i hope your right but I just don't see it. I would think the way it feels out right now that today is in fact the first day of spring!(the way it feels at least) Enjoy ur day love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Chance of snow for Saturday is increasing for the immediate coast (including NYC). The setup screams for an inverted trough type of band. As always, the location of the trough will not be known until the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 i hope your right but I just don't see it. I would think the way it feels out right now that today is in fact the first day of spring!(the way it feels at least) Enjoy ur day love Amazingly beautiful Norlun for Long Island on Saturday on the 12z Global... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 1-3 inches on the gfs for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 ggem also has some snow. Looks like more snow on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Chance of snow for Saturday is increasing for the immediate coast (including NYC). The setup screams for an inverted trough type of band. As always, the location of the trough will not be known until the actual event. The UKMET likes the idea also and it will come down to where the instability trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The UKMET likes the idea also and it will come down to where the instability trough sets up. P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif I think it also comes down to where the 500mb ULL closes off. Gfs and Ggem have that occurring further north then the Ukmet, and hence the position of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The most likely scenario is convective instability snow showers saturday rather than an organized norlun. How many times now have we been burned by hoping for a norlun trough to setup over the metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 The most likely scenario is convective instability snow showers saturday rather than an organized norlun. How many times now have we been burned by hoping for a norlun trough to setup over the metro area? Doesn't matter if we were burned 50 times in a row. Every setup is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 We have seen these late season instability situations nail areas in the past. There was one in recent years that dropped a quick 4" north of the city when nothing but snow showers were forecast. I could easily see someone walking with more then a coating. Think thunderstorms but with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Wow Gfs for Easter weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Please ask this one (and the Easter potential) to miss us. The NICA High School Mt Bike race season starts 4/12 at Sprain Ridge in Yonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 12z Euro less robust than other models with the instability trough but has some very light snow out in Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 12z GFS for easter weekend. my word that would be a nice way to end things. 988 mb low just north of Atlantic City. We still have a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Time to start a model thread for the 4/5 storm. I kid, I kid. Yes, I know this is banter, but with winter basically over, it's about to become the usual ghost town around here. Amazing how all the snow nuts congregate here for the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Time to start a model thread for the 4/5 storm. I kid, I kid. Yes, I know this is banter, but with winter basically over, it's about to become the usual ghost town around here. Amazing how all the snow nuts congregate here for the winter... It's time for the crickets until our first severe threat that inevitably fizzles before the coast ohhh and that's going to happen allot this spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 This Euro freebie courtesy of Mike Ventrice at WSI shows a stormy pattern here in early April. ECMWF ensembles have a PV to our north as the Pacific Jet gets free reign underneath. Any lows that track south of us will introduce the potential for some measurable early April snow as temperatures will average below normal. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/581041332946366465 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Looks like some snow on Saturday and possibly a bigger storm for Easter weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 We could really get some heavy showers later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Still believe the April 3rd-6th / Easter period holds potential for one more snow event of the season. The hemispheric and global indicators are fairly convincing for the heightened probability of a late season snowfall. We'll see some mood flakes on Saturday, but I continue to think the inverted trough and any system prior to April 2nd will be a long shot, as the pattern is reshuffling. The ECMWF ensemble mean from overnight now takes the AO slightly negative for the first week of April due to the extension of the -EPO mid level ridge across the north pole and into Eurasia. This should induce strong cross polar flow into Canada and the northern US by later next week, of course, relative to the time of year. However, the high latitude blocking depicted is one of the more impressive looks we've seen all cold season really. The late season nature may aid us here, as the seasonal poleward retreat of the jet should promote a further north baroclinic zone compared to what it would have been in this regime 1-2 months ago. The initial short wave around April 1st could suppress the heights enough such that the next wave develops in the Central Plains and propagates ewd toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Surprisingly, model data has been fairly persistent on the idea of a storm system being legitimate in that April 3rd-5th time period. The MJO continues to propagate through amplified phase 1, and will maintain itself through phases 2-3, which are historical cold phases at this time of year. Light at the end of the tunnel in terms of warmer weather (not sure we flip to sustained warmth yet), could be April 10th-15th. The daily OLR depiction is beautiful w/ robust upward motion near the dateline and progressing eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Rgem would feature a nice little snowfall for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Saturday still looks like some convective snow showers with that cold upper level low overhead, should be real unstable with a lot of cumulus around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Rgem would feature a nice little snowfall for the area Bout an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Bout an inch or soAnd that's being generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 GFS is closer with the coastal. It still shows the trough right over the area. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 And that's being generous Would most likely be a dusting or so on unpaved surfaces for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Bout an inch or so That's only through hour 48. Precip is forming at that hour. P.S. GFS is 2"-4" on the conservative SV maps for NYC/LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 GFS is now 2-4 for the area. Curious to see the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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