Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


Recommended Posts

Thanks Don ,I think we  may see our first T storms S and W Thursday as a pretty strong cold front passes through the area .

SPC thinks it is Marginal at best . 

 

Welcome to this spring on Long Island with SST's still in the upper 30's and a strong seabreeze.

The NYC and west crew will get bragging rights on spring temps for a day.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

does it make me a snow clown if I still want more snow?...1967 had wet snow flakes well into May in some places and has the second coolest May on record...It did have a few short heat waves but it was crazy for Spring...1961 was another cold Spring...ice pellets fell at LGA in late May...

 

cd100.33.44.93.82.11.3.44.prcp.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even during a normal winter water temps off the island get into the high 30s to low 40s. So cool foggy nasty days happen almost every spring right on the south shore. It's the price you pay for comfortable temps in July and August when the city is an awful hot mess. There's a reason the oldest houses in long beach still have sleeping porches as the wealthy from the city would travel out just to sleep in the cool breeze.

The problem is this year the water temps are in the low to mid 30s so onshore flow days In April will be just brutal on area boardwalks. Even Memorial Day weekend could be far from beach weather with any type of onshore flow. I fully expect a ton of foggy days this spring at home

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro right on cue ahead of the day 9-10 GL cutter.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_T850_us_10.png

As to what I posted on earlier once into April and as we get deeper into the month as the trough does pull back  SLP that heads to the lakes later in the month will turn those 70`s off your S into 80`s and that`s how you touch 80 later in the month of April namconus_T2m_neus_18.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As to what I posted on earlier once into April and as we get deeper into the month as the trough does pull back SLP that heads to the lakes later in the month will turn those 70`s off your S into 80`s and that`s how you touch 80 later in the month of April namconus_T2m_neus_18.png

Good call. I believe HM mentioned a couple weeks ago about the possibly of going right into "summer time" temperatures possibly for a time after the chilly pattern breaks next month
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's the inverted trough showing up again on 18z GFS. It has .25+ for Long Island. It will be interesting to see if NAM has it once it gets into range. Does anyone think the idea of getting accumulating snow from an inverted trough this late in the season is realistic?

Nolun troughs almost never workout for anywhere outside of eastern long island and New England and if it's only showing .25 qpf, it would have to snow at night for anything to accumulate
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Pamela

18z GFS hinting at something towards about Day 9 / next Thursday...something to keep an eye on. Overall pattern still fairly winterlike.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Pamela

CPC keeps it cold & wet in the Northeast through April 7th...so some more snow seems very possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Pamela

Nolun troughs almost never workout for anywhere outside of eastern long island and New England and if it's only showing .25 qpf, it would have to snow at night for anything to accumulate

I was pleasantly surprised at how well the snow held up to that March 20th sun last week...it did have an impact; but the impact diminished to zero after 2:30 PM Friday afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

does it make me a snow clown if I still want more snow?...1967 had wet snow flakes well into May in some places and has the second coolest May on record...It did have a few short heat waves but it was crazy for Spring...1961 was another cold Spring...ice pellets fell at LGA in late May...

 

cd100.33.44.93.82.11.3.44.prcp.png

May 27, 1961 at LGA was a low of 41 and a high of 48, with heavy rain on and near this date.   500mb gph was about 5430m.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That was brutal one of the more colder Memorial Day weekend days I've seen.

That was brutal one of the more colder Memorial Day weekend days I've seen.

First day back life guarding at jones beach. Air show canceled and all the guards in winter coats! Memorable in all the wrong ways. Last summer it was Fourth of July with a hurricane going by cold cold strong almost tropical storm force wimds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter is over I don't expect anymore snow for our region. It's been so cold though but I think today is the turning point where snow will be hard to come by around our region. Expect a cold weekend though but not as cold as last weekend. Overall expect a slow warm up which is always good on my book. I hate when we get winter to summer. I expect this spring to be a dry and normal to above normal temperatures. Expect a hot and humid summer from Pittsburgh, Pa and east

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter is over I don't expect anymore snow for our region. It's been so cold though but I think today is the turning point where snow will be hard to come by around our region. Expect a cold weekend though but not as cold as last weekend. Overall expect a slow warm up which is always good on my book. I hate when we get winter to summer. I expect this spring to be a dry and normal to above normal temperatures. Expect a hot and humid summer from Pittsburgh, Pa and east

Ehhh as long as that epo stays negative, it may be a repeat of last summer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Pamela

Winter is over I don't expect anymore snow for our region. It's been so cold though but I think today is the turning point where snow will be hard to come by around our region. Expect a cold weekend though but not as cold as last weekend. Overall expect a slow warm up which is always good on my book. I hate when we get winter to summer. I expect this spring to be a dry and normal to above normal temperatures. Expect a hot and humid summer from Pittsburgh, Pa and east

Tony, snow is likely Friday night / Saturday...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Convective snow signal from the GFS along the instability trough 

Friday night into early Saturday. Elevated TT's and steeper mid-level

lapse rates are showing up in the soundings. Would like to see Euro

move in this direction in later runs as 0z was dry.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Convective snow signal from the GFS along the instability trough

Friday night into early Saturday. Elevated TT's and steeper mid-level

lapse rates are showing up in the soundings. Would like to see Euro

move in this direction in later runs as 0z was dry.

06_GFS_078_40.92,-72.85_skewt_ML.gif

Looks good for some convective showers, there is going to be some real cold air aloft. Should be stratocumulus and cumulus congestus galore on saturday once the sun comes out and you get that instability mixing
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...