bluewave Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Thanks Don ,I think we may see our first T storms S and W Thursday as a pretty strong cold front passes through the area . SPC thinks it is Marginal at best . Welcome to this spring on Long Island with SST's still in the upper 30's and a strong seabreeze. The NYC and west crew will get bragging rights on spring temps for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Welcome to this spring on Long Island with SST's still in the upper 30's and a strong seabreeze. The NYC and west crew will get bragging rights on spring temps for a day. f57.gif I agree Back door CF will def keep your early spring cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 does it make me a snow clown if I still want more snow?...1967 had wet snow flakes well into May in some places and has the second coolest May on record...It did have a few short heat waves but it was crazy for Spring...1961 was another cold Spring...ice pellets fell at LGA in late May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Even during a normal winter water temps off the island get into the high 30s to low 40s. So cool foggy nasty days happen almost every spring right on the south shore. It's the price you pay for comfortable temps in July and August when the city is an awful hot mess. There's a reason the oldest houses in long beach still have sleeping porches as the wealthy from the city would travel out just to sleep in the cool breeze. The problem is this year the water temps are in the low to mid 30s so onshore flow days In April will be just brutal on area boardwalks. Even Memorial Day weekend could be far from beach weather with any type of onshore flow. I fully expect a ton of foggy days this spring at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I agree Back door CF will def keep your early spring cool 12z Euro right on cue ahead of the day 9-10 GL cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 12z Euro right on cue ahead of the day 9-10 GL cutter. ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png ecmwf_T850_us_10.png Just annoying now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 12z Euro right on cue ahead of the day 9-10 GL cutter. ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png ecmwf_T850_us_10.png As to what I posted on earlier once into April and as we get deeper into the month as the trough does pull back SLP that heads to the lakes later in the month will turn those 70`s off your S into 80`s and that`s how you touch 80 later in the month of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 As to what I posted on earlier once into April and as we get deeper into the month as the trough does pull back SLP that heads to the lakes later in the month will turn those 70`s off your S into 80`s and that`s how you touch 80 later in the month of April Good call. I believe HM mentioned a couple weeks ago about the possibly of going right into "summer time" temperatures possibly for a time after the chilly pattern breaks next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 There's the inverted trough showing up again on 18z GFS. It has .25+ for Long Island. It will be interesting to see if NAM has it once it gets into range. Does anyone think the idea of getting accumulating snow from an inverted trough this late in the season is realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 There's the inverted trough showing up again on 18z GFS. It has .25+ for Long Island. It will be interesting to see if NAM has it once it gets into range. Does anyone think the idea of getting accumulating snow from an inverted trough this late in the season is realistic?Nolun troughs almost never workout for anywhere outside of eastern long island and New England and if it's only showing .25 qpf, it would have to snow at night for anything to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 18z GFS hinting at something towards about Day 9 / next Thursday...something to keep an eye on. Overall pattern still fairly winterlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 CPC keeps it cold & wet in the Northeast through April 7th...so some more snow seems very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Nolun troughs almost never workout for anywhere outside of eastern long island and New England and if it's only showing .25 qpf, it would have to snow at night for anything to accumulate I was pleasantly surprised at how well the snow held up to that March 20th sun last week...it did have an impact; but the impact diminished to zero after 2:30 PM Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 does it make me a snow clown if I still want more snow?...1967 had wet snow flakes well into May in some places and has the second coolest May on record...It did have a few short heat waves but it was crazy for Spring...1961 was another cold Spring...ice pellets fell at LGA in late May... May 27, 1961 at LGA was a low of 41 and a high of 48, with heavy rain on and near this date. 500mb gph was about 5430m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 May 27, 1961 at LGA was a low of 41 and a high of 48, with heavy rain on and near this date. 500mb gph was about 5430m. We had something not that far off from that the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend 3 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 We had something not that far off from that the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend 3 years ago That was brutal one of the more colder Memorial Day weekend days I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 That was brutal one of the more colder Memorial Day weekend days I've seen. That was brutal one of the more colder Memorial Day weekend days I've seen. First day back life guarding at jones beach. Air show canceled and all the guards in winter coats! Memorable in all the wrong ways. Last summer it was Fourth of July with a hurricane going by cold cold strong almost tropical storm force wimds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 gfs and ggen shows some snow for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Clear and calm..24 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 gfs and ggen shows some snow for this weekendDon't expect more than maybe a few convective snow and rain showers and stratocumulus this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Winter is over I don't expect anymore snow for our region. It's been so cold though but I think today is the turning point where snow will be hard to come by around our region. Expect a cold weekend though but not as cold as last weekend. Overall expect a slow warm up which is always good on my book. I hate when we get winter to summer. I expect this spring to be a dry and normal to above normal temperatures. Expect a hot and humid summer from Pittsburgh, Pa and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Winter is over I don't expect anymore snow for our region. It's been so cold though but I think today is the turning point where snow will be hard to come by around our region. Expect a cold weekend though but not as cold as last weekend. Overall expect a slow warm up which is always good on my book. I hate when we get winter to summer. I expect this spring to be a dry and normal to above normal temperatures. Expect a hot and humid summer from Pittsburgh, Pa and east Ehhh as long as that epo stays negative, it may be a repeat of last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Winter is over I don't expect anymore snow for our region. It's been so cold though but I think today is the turning point where snow will be hard to come by around our region. Expect a cold weekend though but not as cold as last weekend. Overall expect a slow warm up which is always good on my book. I hate when we get winter to summer. I expect this spring to be a dry and normal to above normal temperatures. Expect a hot and humid summer from Pittsburgh, Pa and east Tony, snow is likely Friday night / Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Tony, snow is likely Friday night / Saturday... Agree. Looking like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I find every time someone declares snow over that it snows again unless it gets late enough where it becomes physically impossible to snow due to the laws of physics and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Convective snow signal from the GFS along the instability trough Friday night into early Saturday. Elevated TT's and steeper mid-level lapse rates are showing up in the soundings. Would like to see Euro move in this direction in later runs as 0z was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Convective snow signal from the GFS along the instability trough Friday night into early Saturday. Elevated TT's and steeper mid-level lapse rates are showing up in the soundings. Would like to see Euro move in this direction in later runs as 0z was dry. 06_GFS_078_40.92,-72.85_skewt_ML.gif Looks good for some convective showers, there is going to be some real cold air aloft. Should be stratocumulus and cumulus congestus galore on saturday once the sun comes out and you get that instability mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 typical spring setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I was hoping that we could pull 2-3" of rain out of the next three days but activity looks to scattered to be an area wide soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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