Mitchel Volk Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Being this time of the year with a -NAO and -EPO with a +PNA and a confluent jet I see a lot of potential for next weekend. In addition there is a lot of snow pack over the source region so the air will be cold. Ever conceivable ingredient for a major snowstorm. All we need is the correct timing for things to get together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 MJO Euro GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The GFS isn't nearly as good as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The GFS isn't nearly as good as 12z Gives the city 1-3 with more to the north. It still shows a stormy pattern. Just need the cold air. GFS tries to get blocking going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Gives the city 1-3 with more to the north. It still shows a stormy pattern. Just need the cold air. GFS tries to get blocking going. The GFS habitually flip/flops back and forth. The pattern is still spectacular for March but it will take more time for the details to be worked out. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The GFS isn't nearly as good as 12z It's still very stormy though. Doesn't look very nice for those hoping for warm sunny days. The cold hangs just to the north this time but it's close and it may get tapped by one of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Now less than 7 days away from the threat, (look like start late Friday night )verbatim in 6z 2-4/3-5" before a changeover, with sne really cashing in....but details don't matter much now, threat still there Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Now less than 7 days away from the threat, (look like start late Friday night )verbatim in 6z 2-4/3-5" before a changeover, with sne really cashing in....but details don't matter much now, threat still there Euro? 00z Op looks like a bit of snow N+W of NYC then rain, mostly rain elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 LP makes it up to around Erie PA then goes pretty much due east, just north of NYC and off the coast by Boston. This is Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 6z Global does continue to bring chances of significant snow into the area over the next 10 days / 240 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Obviously hard to say what will happen at the coast...but over interior CT & Massachusetts...given the protracted cold & ample moisture...probably looking at a very snowy couple of weeks / balance of March in SNE. Probably need to include the LHV in that equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Obviously hard to say what will happen at the coast...but over interior CT & Massachusetts...given the protracted cold & ample moisture...probably looking at a very snowy couple of weeks / balance of March in SNE. Probably need to include the LHV in that equation. And the NYC metro....hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 PT , jump in here as you the first one who said -NO WARM up . Guy has been en fuego all winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The long range models look like March 1967 is walking in the door after this week. The models seemed to have a better grasp of the system last evening, they will go back to the 15 inches of snow on the 12Z, I bet. This coming week is the last above freezing days until sometime in April. Let's deal with it. The GEFS are frigid from 3/13 to 3/26, with highs 20-26 degrees. It will be 20-25 below normal for many days folks. I think spring waits until 4/18, my date the pattern changes. The Feb pattern is here full force for another 4-6 weeks after an excuse of a relaxation this coming week. Guess: March 2015 total snowfall for LI 30-38 inches 40 percent confidence. Temp: -13.8 below average, will outdo Feb neg. departure. 60 percent confidence. Guess: April 2015 total snowfall for LI 13-16 inches Temp -11.4 below average Are the red taggers biting on this ??? MJO 7-8 - excellent set up -EPO very negative - outstanding for constant Arctic highs +PNA through Boise, Id NAO even going neutral Cold SST Cryosphere right here It will look like PEI, NS by the time 3/31 gets here. My scorned upon theory of leaf out around Memorial Day and mall piles to early June is happening folks, it is happening this year, you'll see...... If one of these two things does happen, please remember that. My gracious!! Quite extreme! There's still plenty of potential for next weekend and beyond, that's all I can really say at this point. The models will continue to wobble around a little for the next day or two and then gradually move toward a viable solution. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Looking at the forecast for the next 7-10 looks mostly near normal for this time of year. There are no big time warmups but it won't be unseasonably cold either. The snowpack should experience a nice gradual meltdown with most of it gone in less than week outside shady spots and obviously those massive piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 PT , jump in here as you the first one who said -NO WARM up . Guy has been en fuego all winter . There's a three day semi-warm-up. Tues, Wed, Thurs morning. Then I think most of the remainder of the month will be colder than normal but perhaps not as extremely colder than normal as all of February was. But cold enough that any storms particularly those coming out of the southern stream have to be watched carefully and potential is there for additional snow events. But really, this warm-up is to normal, not really above normal (maybe one day above, maybe) and quite temporary. The -EPO is a tough nut to crack and if we get ANY kind of +PNA with any north Atlantic blocking, look out!! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Keep an eye on the GEM , it has been spot on in the LR . If you get HP to sink far enough S , you could force LP a little further S . BTW this is before the pattern could get wild . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Not sure final outcome of GFS yet, but sped this thing up, now a Friday afternoon/evening start time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Not sure final outcome of GFS yet, but sped this thing up, now a late Thursday night/Friday start to any event. The Sat - Sun storm is there . The GFS sees some CAD at 150 , snows on the front and changes over . Watch the Canadian , it may look better in the N Atlantic as we need confluence to push down out of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Verbatim still 2-4"/3-5" of snow or so, then mix/rain. But wow, overall an INCREDIBLE set-up for some next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 The Sat - Sun storm is there . The GFS sees some CAD at 150 , snows on the front and changes over . Watch the Canadian , it may look better in the N Atlantic as we need confluence to push down out of New England The overall looks is ridiculous. Huge arctic highs (morphing into a large banana high in a good spot), and a huge amount of moisture streaming out of the gulf into them, then a coastal takes over eventually. Really overall huge potential, we'll see if we can get a little colder look in over the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The overall looks is ridiculous. Huge arctic highs (morphing into a large banana high in a good spot), and a huge amount of moisture streaming out of the gulf into them, then a coastal takes over eventually. Really overall huge potential, we'll see if we can get a little colder look in over the next few days... Good chance of a prolonged snow to rain to snow event out of this with perhaps some significant snows on the back-end. We still have to see the details get worked out over the next 4-5 days. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Good chance of a prolonged snow to rain to snow event out of this with perhaps some significant snows on the back-end. We still have to see the details get worked out over the next 4-5 days. WX/PT What days are we looking at for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Total QPF from Friday to Sunday is in the 3" range for most! Looks like roughly mid/late day Friday through Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Well Boston gets slammed on this run and would break their record by far. Interesting system to track for the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 What days are we looking at for this? Timing uncertain but probably the 15th-16th though it could arrive as early as the 13th or 14th and depart as late as the 17th. Sorry I cannot be more specific at this time as timing will depend on blocking, confluence, the western ridge or lack of, etc, etc, etc. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Good chance of a prolonged snow to rain to snow event out of this with perhaps some significant snows on the back-end. We still have to see the details get worked out over the next 4-5 days. WX/PT PT I agree . I like the fact that ridge is rolling right on through , it will force the cut off LP to exit to the S of the area . We just need enough confluence bleeding down from New England and it will create a nice Baroclinic zone and turn this colder as it progresses . The models are already sniffing the CAD earlier in the evolution so it will depend on how much of a push S the cold air can sag . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Good chance of a prolonged snow to rain to snow event out of this with perhaps some significant snows on the back-end. We still have to see the details get worked out over the next 4-5 days. WX/PT I don't see back-end snows with this. SLP remains relatively weak, and it most certainly will in this setup. However, I think the GFS is running the surface low too far north into the confluence. The GEM is much closer to reality with the low moving due east around the Del Marva. Teleconnections look to be moving in very favorable directions as well. With the AO crashing towards negative and PNA spiking, we should see plenty of cold air available over our area in time for this event. Personally, I like where NYC metro sits with this right now, given seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Personally, I like where NYC metro sits with this right now, given seasonal trends. NYC Half Marathon is Sunday morning in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 NYC Half Marathon is Sunday morning in Manhattan. I hear ya. I just went for my first outside jog in a LOOONG time. The sun is bright and warm, and in many ways I'm yearning for spring. That being said, I still love a good snow storm. At this time of the year I have an attitude of "Let's get something big or please stay the hell away". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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