toople Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 PB GFI, on 22 Mar 2015 - 08:32 AM, said:Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb - Mar . This winter certainly had some duration to it . I think we barely had some snow in December. December was not also so cold. I think real winter began in 2nd half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 That's for sure. The strong SSW flow will favor areas from NYC west for the mildest temps since the SST's are still so cold. It looks like there finally may be signs of a change to at least normal to maybe slightly above after the 1st week of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 big storm just misses the area on gfs next weekend. h5 looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 The coastal (although well out to sea now) and the clipper that follows should be our last shots for the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 big storm just misses the area on gfs next weekend. h5 looks great. We need a weaker first wave on Thursday so the baroclinic zone is closer to the coast for the second wave so it doesn't scoot OTS. March 5th worked out perfectly for us when the models backed off the first wave and trended closer with the second as we got closer to storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 With the GFS a touch more interesting for next weekend, see if the ggem pulls the storm back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Ggem is about a day faster than gfs. Slightly warm but a pretty nice hit for interior spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I think we barely had some snow in December. December was not also so cold. I think real winter began in 2nd half of January. Areas just N and W had a foot of snow in Nov . As for KNYC the 1st 15 days of the month were below normal. It was cold enough to be considered and feel like a winter month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Very strong signal next week and yes probably our last chance as I believe the clipper will be too warm. I can't discount seeing snow as late as early May although accumulating snows are done by April 15th but this will our last legit shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 We need a weaker first wave on Thursday so the baroclinic zone is closer to the coast for the second wave so it doesn't scoot OTS. March 5th worked out perfectly for us when the models backed off the first wave and trended closer with the second as we got closer to storm time. The march 5th storm has a SE ridge to work with , so it had to come N I do agree we need the first piece to be weaker but I would like to see the ridge axis settle a little further west which would allow the trough to go neutral quicker . The result would be the height falls would b further N and SLP would tucked In more at OBX . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 The march 5th storm has a SE ridge to work with , so it had to come N I do agree we need the first piece to be weaker but I would like to see the ridge axis settle a little further west which would allow the trough to go neutral quicker . The result would be the height falls would b further N and SLP would tucked In more at OBX . If we could get the first wave to shear out a bit more on later runs that would leave the ridge axis further west for the second wave to go neutral quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 hows the euro looking for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 hows the euro looking for friday The Thursday wave kicks the cold front too far east so the second wave rides along OTS to our SE. It also doesn't help matters that the clipper coming behind appears to be acting as a kicker keeping things more progressive on today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 The Thursday wave kicks the cold front too far east so the second wave rides along OTS to our SE. It also doesn't help matters that the clipper coming behind appears to be acting as a kicker keeping things more progressive on today's run. That blows but still days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 That blows but still days away By Weds, it'll be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 So it sounds as if the GGEM is the only model showing a storm next weekend. Long way to go, but DT is saying the storm won't trend closer to the coast in this setup where the AO and NAO are extremely positive. Is DT good and do you think his argument is a good one? If you listen to him, this storm has no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 So it sounds as if the GGEM is the only model showing a storm next weekend. Long way to go, but DT is saying the storm won't trend closer to the coast in this setup where the AO and NAO are extremely positive. Is DT good and do you think his argument is a good one? If you listen to him, this storm has no chance. DT has been off all winter. i wouldn't listen to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Dt never said the storm had no chance, he just stated that the AO and NAO are positive, NOT allowing the storm to strongly develop closer to the coast. It was a good write up by DT imo. DT convinced me we have a long ways to go to make this storm to work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Dt never said the storm had no chance, he just stated that the AO and NAO are positive, NOT allowing the storm to strongly develop closer to the coast. It was a good write up by DT imo. DT convinced me we have a long ways to go to make this storm to work out for us. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 With respect to the AO and PNA, an AO-/PNA+ is more common for smaller late-season snowstorms in NYC, while an AO+/PNA- is more common with the larger ones. Below is a chart for 1950 through 2014. In addition, if one takes a look at 4" or greater snowstorms (1 or 2 days in duration), the following AO/PNA setups were present when the storms commenced. April 8, 1956: 4.2" AO-/PNA+ March 29, 1970: 4.0" AO-/PNA- April 6-7, 1982: 9.6" AO+/PNA- March 28-29, 1996: 4.1" AO-/PNA- April 7-8, 2003: 4.0" AO+/PNA- Note: The PNA was negative for 4 out of the 5 storms. The only setup missing from that small collection of storms was an AO+/PNA+ setup. IMO, once when gets closer to the possible event, one will need to see how the exact synoptic pattern gets established regardless of the teleconnections. That's especially important as wave lengths continue to shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 With respect to the AO and PNA, an AO-/PNA+ is more common for smaller late-season snowstorms in NYC, while an AO+/PNA- is more common with the larger ones. Below is a chart for 1950 through 2014. upload imagem In addition, if one takes a look at 4" or greater snowstorms (1 or 2 days in duration), the following AO/PNA setups were present when the storms commenced. April 8, 1956: 4.2" AO-/PNA+ March 29, 1970: 4.0" AO-/PNA- April 6-7, 1982: 9.6" AO+/PNA- March 28-29, 1996: 4.1" AO-/PNA- April 7-8, 2003: 4.0" AO+/PNA- Note: The PNA was negative for 4 out of the 5 storms. The only setup missing from that small collection of storms was an AO+/PNA+ setup. IMO, once when gets closer to the possible event, one will need to see how the exact synoptic pattern gets established regardless of the teleconnections. That's especially important as wave lengths continue to shorten. You sir need to share this in the NE forum they are asking about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Dt never said the storm had no chance, he just stated that the AO and NAO are positive, NOT allowing the storm to strongly develop closer to the coast. It was a good write up by DT imo. DT convinced me we have a long ways to go to make this storm to work out for us.You at least need a -NAO this time of year for a major snowstorm, you can get away with +AO but we are going to have neither this weekend. DT explained why in detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 You at least need a -NAO this time of year for a major snowstorm, you can get away with +AO but we are going to have neither this weekend. DT explained why in detail Because he's been so accurate this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I think we barely had some snow in December. December was not also so cold. I think real winter began in 2nd half of January. I agree, December was more fall-like than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 if March averages less than 40.0 for the month it will be two consecutive March's averaging in the 30's...last year averaged 37.7...so far as of yesterday March is averaging 37.6...The last time there was two March's in a row averaging less than 40 was March 1939-40-41...it's making up for the two warm March's in 2010 and 2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Judging by the fact that it was GFS time an hour ago and there are ZERO posts looking like the next 2 shots are OTS and clipper that folows is too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Judging by the fact that it was GFS time an hour ago and there are ZERO posts looking like the next 2 shots are OTS and clipper that folows is too warm? GFS started at 1130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Spring makes a brief cameo on Thursday away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Spring makes a brief cameo on Thursday away from the shore. f81.gif Ouch, that'll be one nasty sea breeze. Temps in the 40s on winds over 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Ouch, that'll be one nasty sea breeze. Temps in the 40s on winds over 20 mph. Tell me about it with SST's in the upper 30's just south of Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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