The 4 Seasons Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 candian control also has a huge storm Where do you view the Canadian control? I tried https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm but it keeps giving me "The forecast is not available yet" for everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Anything is "possible". But a 2 foot + spring blizzard in nyc in the closing days of March with no -NAO or -AO and even if you had that? Lol let's just say I wouldn't bet my next paycheck on it to say the least There have only been 2 24 inch or greater snowstorms and only 6 20 inch or greater snowstorms in 150 years at KNYC. That will show you how rare something like that is . Add late March into the mix and you can see how extreme that solution is . There should be a storm on the EC by day 10 and its possible there is one more accumulating snow here , but I doubt anyone buys that solution . We will have to get closer to see if the surface responds to that look at 500 . A week ago we said the 500 MB looked great aloft and ultimately the surface responded . We are in the same spot once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 There have only been 2 24 inch or greater snowstorms and only 6 20 inch or greater snowstorms in 150 years at KNYC. That will show you how rare something like that is . Add late March into the mix and you can see how extreme that solution is . There should be a storm on the EC by day 10 and its possible there is one more accumulating snow here , but I doubt anyone buys that solution . We will have to get closer to see if the surface responds to that look at 500 . A week ago we said the 500 MB looked great aloft and ultimately the surface responded . We are in the same spot once again. I think the biggest difference is we are losing the blocking. The AO and NAO are both now progged to go sharply positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I think the biggest difference is we are losing the blocking. The AO and NAO are both now progged to go sharply positive. Umm the AO and NAO have been positive the whole winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I think the biggest difference is we are losing the blocking. The AO and NAO are both now progged to go sharply positive. The way we may get an EC storm is as the PNA amplifies by day 10 , ( seen by all 3 ensembles ) you may see a full latitude trough dig into the east. When you get those kind of height rises on the WC , you should see big height falls on the EC , so any system that comes out of the S should run the EC . The only way it's a big system is if it deepens on its way up the EC on the arctic front that will swing through a day or 2 before. Without blocking you lose the mechanism to slow it down but you could make it up if it deepens rapidly. You also hurt the ability to keep the cold air on the coastal plain , so you would have to depend on dynamic cooling for it to work . I will admit there are a whole lot of " ifs " in this , but deep negatives like that usually produce LP . I love the look at 500 what that will or will not transfer to remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Umm the AO and NAO have been positive the whole winter Except it'll be nearly April at this point. A lot has to go right. Plus most of our recent snows have coincided with temporary negative AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 0z GFS says we try it again. H5 looks delicious. Not too far away from a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 The way we may get an EC storm is as the PNA amplifies by day 10 , ( seen by all 3 ensembles ) you may see a full latitude trough dig into the east. When you get those kind of height rises on the WC , you should see big height falls on the EC , so any system that comes out of the S should run the EC . The only way it's a big system is if it deepens on its way up the EC on the arctic front that will swing through a day or 2 before. Without blocking you lose the mechanism to slow it down but you could make it up if it deepens rapidly. You also hurt the ability to keep the cold air on the coastal plain , so you would have to depend on dynamic cooling for it to work . I will admit there are a whole lot of " ifs " in this , but deep negatives like that usually produce LP . I love the look at 500 what that will or will not transfer to remains to be seen. I think for the coastal plain you have to be happy to be just in the game at this point in the season. It's approaching 16 seed vs 1 seed territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I think the biggest difference is we are losing the blocking. The AO and NAO are both now progged to go sharply positive. Blocking and indices have less relevance this late. Short wavelengths can spin up just about anything regardless of the NAO or AO. Nino winters are typically back-loaded, and the STJ is finally kicking in-this storm was raining on us down in Texas from a cutoff low in Mexico a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Blocking and indices have less relevance this late. Short wavelengths can spin up just about anything regardless of the NAO or AO. Nino winters are typically back-loaded, and the STJ is finally kicking in-this storm was raining on us down in Texas from a cutoff low in Mexico a couple of days ago. Cold air will be fleeting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Cold air will be fleeting though. GFS is cold through 198 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Cold air will be fleeting though. Day 7 looks colder than today . That arctic wave will come through on Friday and will cool the BL down. ( Similar to post SB storm last Feb and the March 6 set up ) Modeled to snow through minus 8 air , Today we snowed through minus 2 to minus 4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Long way off , no need to analyze this to death. Will circle back in a few days and see how it looks. Full latitude troughs should get your attention , that's all I am saying this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Troughs after Troughs on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 0z GEFS has the storm for next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Cold air will be fleeting though. It always is, but when you catch it with some moisture, the added baroclinicity can make for a nice event (see today, where a late developing coastal clearly aided totals-the radar definitely hung back over the area and snow showers are expected all night). April 2003 was a similar situation, as was I'm sure April 82. Also, yet another event where wind direction wasn't optimal for the coast yet there were nice amounts everywhere. Winds were essentially E and ENE all day but it didn't seem to matter. Colder than average ocean FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I'd love a nice 2 feet blizzard to end the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I saw another page after my post and cringed...but i was pleasantly surprised...(just kidding pazzo you know i love ya lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I'm in for one more shot at something before spring can really take over. We have potential at least with a look like this. Hopefully, we can get something really cranking as the trough lifts out and then we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Do not put the winter coats away just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 As long as the epo stays negative, the cold air will stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 GEM . Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 GEM . Yikes what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 what does that mean? Pazzo will not be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 GEM . Yikes That'd be such a great way to end the winter.....8-12" of snow DC to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 image.jpg Oh boy... When is that for? Next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 When is that for? Next weekend?The last day of the month, 3/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 7 day period. When is that for? Next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 When is that for? Next weekend? Next Friday and Saturday snowstorm (all snow) with a kick-in-the-groin clipper right after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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