PB GFI Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Anything on the Tuesday storm? Tues does not amplify. The day 9 threat is still there. A few ensemble members swing a cold front through and then eject a SW NE . The well below normal temps will continue through April 1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Some nice mild days latter part of next week, Thursday could be widespread 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Super Ensembles Winter continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pretty interesting, the 12z GFS run @ 144-156 almost looks like a carbon copy of the "ana-front" storm from March 5...Starts off with lakes cutter, elongated front, energy hanging back, PNA ridge...lol...A LOT less cold air to work with, but it might end up forming a coastal based on the 500mb look @ 162 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Gfs is really interesting. Rain but it depends where the trough stalls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 WSI Euro freebie says enjoy your below normal temp -EPO/+PNA pattern late March into early April. https://twitter.com/wsi_energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Mt holly has me 59 for the rain day next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 WSI Euro freebie says enjoy your below normal temp -EPO/+PNA pattern late March into early April. https://twitter.com/wsi_energy m850ta_6-10_bg_US.png m850ta_11-15_bg_US.png With maybe just a day or two of warmer weather next week, may be challenging for coldest March at my station since 1977...We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 With maybe just a day or two of warmer weather next week, may be challenging for coldest March at my station since 1977...We'll see. It looks like the only shot at cracking 60 in NYC for March will come in around Thursday before the temperature drops below normal again. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/20/2015 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27|SAT CLIMO N/X 31 52| 31 37| 25 36| 25 41| 32 49| 41 59| 44 54| 39 36 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Euro control crushes the area in about ten days with snow or cold please explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 with snow or cold please explain? snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 snow Unless it's a show-stopping blizzard, I'm really not interested anymore. Snow in April is about as pointless as underwear in a brothel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Snow in April or November/Oct is more exciting than Snow in Jan in my opinion, because its really rare. If its going to be an advisory or warning level amount. Not just some run of the mill rain storm that ends as snow showers with a trace. I was stoked for that April 7th 2003 storm with a winter storm warning for 6-10" only to have it fizzle out to 1" of snow/graupel mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Unless it's a show-stopping blizzard, I'm really not interested anymore. Snow in April is about as pointless as underwear in a brothel. it shows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 lol @ the Euro control 28-29" over CT and NYC. Yes, I counted each shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 lol @ the Euro control 28-29" over CT and NYC. Yes, I counted each shade. Was jammed with today's stuff , just saw the Control. OMGLook for a arctic front to swing through and LP to develop on the SW side of it and try and run to the BM . That is how we may end this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Was jammed with today's stuff , just saw the Control. OMG Look for a arctic front to swing through and LP to develop on the SW side of it and try and run to the BM . That is how we may end this . can anyone post the map that shows this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 can anyone post the map that shows this setup?Again, I don't know why this isn't in banter since it's over a week out in fantasy range, but it's showing a ridiculous solution that will never verify, 24+ inches for the nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Again, I don't know why this isn't in banter since it's over a week out in fantasy range, but it's showing a ridiculous solution that will never verify, 24+ inches for the nyc area "Never". Bad post. you cant assume that. Sure it might not verify, but you also cant assume in fantasy range that it will never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 "Never". Bad post. you cant assume that. Sure it might not verify, but you also cant assume in fantasy range that it will never.What's the date of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 "Never". Bad post. you cant assume that. Sure it might not verify, but you also cant assume in fantasy range that it will never.What do you honestly think the chances are of the NYC area seeing a full fledged epic spring blizzard with over 2 feet of snow with NO, repeat NO -NAO or -AO in the final few days of March are? Honestly? What do you think the chances of that even coming close to verifying are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 What do you honestly think the chances are of the NYC area seeing a full fledged epic spring blizzard with over 2 feet of snow with NO, repeat NO -NAO or -AO in the final few days of March are? Honestly? What do you think the chances of that even coming close to verifying are? No one claimed it was likely. This is a weather discussion forum. We arent going to only discuss the models that show the most likely outcomes. Once we are closer to events, we can start worrying about ridiculous runs. If you dont like whats being discussed, try another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 What do you honestly think the chances are of the NYC area seeing a full fledged epic spring blizzard with over 2 feet of snow with NO, repeat NO -NAO or -AO in the final few days of March are? Honestly? What do you think the chances of that even coming close to verifying are? I never said it would happen, I'm just saying you cannot assume that the run will never verify. Can the run be totally wrong? Yes. Is there a low chance of this verifying? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Every day 10 ensemble show a robust POS PNA with a full latitude trough in the east. No one should be calling for anything specific 8 days away. The pattern may be setting up for one last winter storm before we pull back but we have to get a little closer before one can make that call , but the possibility exists . Again the date on the calender is irrelevant. A solution like the control would be hard to pull off in mid Jan under the best conditions , we do live on the coastal plain and KU s of that magnitude are difficult in the best of mid winter patterns . However 2 things that one should take away here . 1 the calender at the edge of winter can still offer big time solutions ie April 82 . When you see 500 mb maps look like that an EC storm is possible . 2 never and I mean never say never . Minimal sure. Slight Sure. Difficult sure. Impossible , no chance ? You will never find a professional MET to ever agree with that opinion. All that said , Caution , this was not our last accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Haven't had a 20" + storm since 2010-2011, so I'm kind of starving for one. We will see with this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 candian control also has a huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Haven't had a 20" + storm since 2010-2011, so I'm kind of starving for one. We will see with this one . Feel your pain haven't had one here since we got 22 in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I don't want another big snowstorm. I didn't want today's storm. If I had to bet, I'd bet against a big snowstorm just based on percentages. That being said you would have to be a moron to argue in absolutes that there won't be another snowstorm or that a big storm scenario won't happen - especially when you've been consistently wrong arguing against snow for 2 months running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Every day 10 ensemble show a robust POS PNA with a full latitude trough in the east. No one should be calling for anything specific 8 days away. The pattern may be setting up for one last winter storm before we pull back but we have to get a little closer before one can make that call , but the possibility exists . Again the date on the calender is irrelevant. A solution like the control would be hard to pull off in mid Jan under the best conditions , we do live on the coastal plain and KU s of that magnitude are difficult in the best of mid winter patterns . However 2 things that one should take away here . 1 the calender at the edge of winter can still offer big time solutions ie April 82 . When you see 500 mb maps look like that an EC storm is possible . 2 never and I mean never say never . Minimal sure. Slight Sure. Difficult sure. Impossible , no chance ? You will never find a professional MET to ever agree with that opinion. All that said , Caution , this was not our last accumulating snow. Anything is "possible". But a 2 foot + spring blizzard in nyc in the closing days of March with no -NAO or -AO and even if you had that? Lol let's just say I wouldn't bet my next paycheck on it to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Obviously the control run is ridiculous but one thing about weather is, and PB GFI already hit on this, is you NEVER say NEVER. What are the chances of a full fledged blizzard in late October that would produce 1-1.5 feet in CT a few inches in NYC? Before 2011 you might say pffft that'll never happen, its never happened before. But you'd be wrong. The E-control run shows a long range snowstorm, that is all. We are just discussing what models show. Next run it will probably be nothing. But the pattern is looking good on the euro for something to manifest. The Canadian and GFS both showed something popping up in the long range. It's something to watch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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