PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 The GEM is wetter ( warmer at the coast ) and looks like the Euro ( which is colder ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Why are we taking the 6z GFS and proclaiming it as the final forecast??? LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Why are we taking the 6z GFS and proclaiming it as the final forecast??? LMAO. Latest Model verification has the GFS behind the Euro, Ukmet and Ggem, in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Why are we taking the 6z GFS and proclaiming it as the final forecast??? LMAO. #3 you are correct .... maybe we will end up with nothing when all is said and done!!!! http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/06/US/namUS_prec_prec_084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 DM could be correct this time, don't have a good feeling about this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 #3 you are correct .... maybe we will end up with nothing when all is said and done!!!! http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/06/US/namUS_prec_prec_084.gif Bro. I'm not calling for anything, but I'm reading your posts and you are strictly using the worst models we have for your arguments and forecast. GFS is the clear outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Bro. I'm not calling for anything, but I'm reading your posts and you are strictly using the worst models we have for your arguments and forecast. GFS is the clear outlier right now. Would you mind explaining why the GFS is now the worst model we have? Very different from your thinking for most other storms this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Would you mind explaining why the GFS is now the worst model we have? Very different from your thinking for most other storms this season Recent model verification scores have the models in this order: -ECMWF -UKMET -GGEM -GFS I am not saying that we will see a snow storm this weekend. All I am saying is that the mean of the models and the ensembles support .25"+ of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Bro. I'm not calling for anything, but I'm reading your posts and you are strictly using the worst models we have for your arguments and forecast. GFS is the clear outlier right now. #3 Strictly??? WOW what a bad post ESRL WPC NAM guidance all posted this morning but if the GFS 06z had snow??? then it would be good???? JUST PLAIN GULLIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 GGEM, EURO, GFS,JMA, NAVGEM, UKEMT weenie maps/ Precip totals, latest runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Posting a WPC forecast map isn't going to earn you any credibility here. Those forecasts change like the wind. The Euro and GGEM both support a significant event and the GFS is a close miss. So why are we going with the GFS? Because it's supported by the GEFS ensemble mean? When the GFS is by itself, regardless of ensemble support, it's likely wrong. It's not like the GFS is that far off, just a few ticks NW and it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Posting a WPC forecast map isn't going to earn you any credibility here. Those forecasts change like the wind. The Euro and GGEM both support a significant event and the GFS is a close miss. So why are we going with the GFS? Because it's supported by the GEFS ensemble mean? When the GFS is by itself, regardless of ensemble support, it's likely wrong. It's not like the GFS is that far off, just a few ticks NW and it's game on. how that navgem idea working out son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Just for reference, the 00z ECWMF ensemble mean is >0.50" for this event at KEWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 You skipped the rest of the global suite, which scores higher then any of the models listed above. GGEM? ECMWF? UKMET? For once I agree with you lol, as I posted above, jma, GGEM, and euro look very similar, UKEMT keeps precip a bit further south but not far from others and GFS and NAVGEM are misses, if I had to make an early call based of seasonal trends, and mod guidance I'd say 2-5" snowfall looks likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 For once I agree with you lol, as I posted above, jma, GGEM, and euro look very similar, UKEMT keeps precip a bit further south but not far from others and GFS and NAVGEM are misses, if I had to make an early call based of seasonal trends, and mod guidance I'd say 2-5" snowfall looks likely I would say 1"-3" of slop for NYC and the north shore of LI. 3"-5" north and west. Not much south shore of LI/NYC and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 gfs is an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 how that navgem idea working out son Right on target. The NAVGEM has a southeast/progressive bias in the medium range with southern stream systems. If it's a close miss, like the NAVGEM continues to show run after run, then the logical outcome would be that the system eventually shifts northwest. 3rd grade meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 FWIW, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has now gone negative. Today's figure was -1.110. The AO has now fallen 6.770 sigma from its March 8 peak. The forecast evolution of the 500 mb patterns between 96 hours and 120 hours are very similar on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Today's and tomorrow's operational guidance should begin to build confidence in the details of the possible storm for Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 #3 Strictly??? WOW what a bad post ESRL WPC NAM guidance all posted this morning but if the GFS 06z had snow??? then it would be good???? JUST PLAIN GULLIBLE KNOCK IT OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 3rd grade meteorology Modelology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 gfs is an outlier right now Mt Holly NWS seems unimpressed with the storm whe reading their morning AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Mt Holly NWS seems unimpressed with the storm whe reading their morning AFD. Weak vort, jet structure doesn't align well, best lift in the warmer air, March daytime light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 gfs further northwest but still a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 call it right please,,,,,,, 96 hr comp 12Z prog is south of the 06Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 g.gif call it right please,,,,,,, 96 hr comp 12Z prog is south of the 06Z run You're just trolling at this point. It was clearly a shift NW from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Tremendous setup nextweek on the GFS with a potent southern stream system attempting to undercut strong high pressure to the North. Need a clean phase with the upper level energy coming in from the mid-west and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 You're just trolling at this point. It was clearly a shift NW from 06z. the 96 hr GFS prog is south...period take it up with the mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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