wthrmn654 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 a lot if areas ground has thawed but a lot of places out my way are still frozen or only thawed a few inches down so far. Ground been re freezing rather solidly lately to,which has surprised me. Bays are very cold a bunch still with ice but will see how this pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Whether or not the storm pans out you've done a good job predicting the pattern. I will eat a Kudos in your honor. I agree, good job this winter PB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I am so glad you jumped in . My March calls vs yours , if you like I will pull every post and embarrass you . You argued that we would see 60`s and 70`s at KNYC Highest temp at KNYC 59 . Thanks for playing . I argued March would be below normal , you argued against it . CHECK I argued 1 week of above normal and then a return to colder than normal CHECK I argued for the -EPO to return , you argued against it CHECK . Many of us here said it would snow again , ALMOST THERE KID . WILL CHECK YOU FRI PM I said 10 days of - 10 - we will see what that looks like once to March 31 . ( Your last hope ) . I mean with your track record how in gods name are you even showing your face in here , you have been obliterated in every call . You called for at least 10 days of -10 or greater departures and a return to winter. We've been in the 40s and 50s for the past 10 days, and that doesn't look like it's going to change save for a couple of days. Did you mean typical winter in Charlotte? You called for blocking to get established, that looks fleeting at best. It looks like it's not going to be outright warm, but the call for a "return to winter" and an extended period of record breaking cold looks like an even more ridiculous call. We did get pretty CLOSE to 60, and we still have another 15 days... It's in the 80s in Central VA today, so it's not far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 You called for at least 10 days of -10 or greater departures and a return to winter. We've been in the 40s and 50s for the past 10 days, and that doesn't look like it's going to change save for a couple of days. Did you mean typical winter in Charlotte? You called for blocking to get established, that looks fleeting at best. It looks like it's not going to be outright warm, but the call for a "return to winter" and an extended period of record breaking cold looks like an even more ridiculous call. We did get pretty CLOSE to 60, and we still have another 15 days... It's in the 80s in Central VA today, so it's not far away. my advice to you is, admit you were wrong and tell everybody that Paul is the best forecaster on here and get it over with. We are most likely going to have a historic snowy March. 10 degrees below normal for ten days is still in the air but you can't argue with Paul the guy has been on fire this winter. Yanksfan called for rain and flooding, neither happened so this years best forecaster goes to Paul, worst goes to yanksfan. Have a safe flight Friday night yanks while I doubt your flight will be canceled it'll be snowing out here so I'm sure you won't mind it. Oh and weenie of the year goes to anthony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Gimme a break guys, though I respect PB and learn a lot from him, verification of your predictions should be in banter. This is a potentially exciting time with most models showing a wintery scenario for Friday as possible, talk should instead be about the models like the thread says! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 You called for at least 10 days of -10 or greater departures and a return to winter. We've been in the 40s and 50s for the past 10 days, and that doesn't look like it's going to change save for a couple of days. Did you mean typical winter in Charlotte? You called for blocking to get established, that looks fleeting at best. It looks like it's not going to be outright warm, but the call for a "return to winter" and an extended period of record breaking cold looks like an even more ridiculous call. We did get pretty CLOSE to 60, and we still have another 15 days... It's in the 80s in Central VA today, so it's not far away. Your mighty warm up at KNYC No 60`s or 70`s there . 8 49 37 43 3 22 9 54 40 47 7 18 10 53 39 46 6 19 11 59 44 52 11 13 12 47 36 42 1 23 13 43 31 37 -4 28 14 51 40 46 4 19 15 44 36 40 -2 25 You have been WRONG about every single forecast made inside a warm troll post . My call was never about " BLOCKING " being established long term . just long enough to bring snow and 10 days of cold . Which is exactly what the 500 mb maps are showing you . You did not believe any of it . My arguments were - The return of the - EPO Return to cold Winter was not over That you did not see your last snow March would be colder than normal BTW all of the above Don S , Bluewave and Isotherm agreed . So I was not alone , but you were the loudest and in the end wrong and that is a bad combination . - 10 DAYS OF -10 was mine , I own that , if that falls short - I will OWN it . So much other %^&* right ,I will see how close I get . But you were not even in the same state . Admit you were wrong and I will renew my Reuters contract . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 You called for at least 10 days of -10 or greater departures and a return to winter. We've been in the 40s and 50s for the past 10 days, and that doesn't look like it's going to change save for a couple of days. Did you mean typical winter in Charlotte? You called for blocking to get established, that looks fleeting at best. It looks like it's not going to be outright warm, but the call for a "return to winter" and an extended period of record breaking cold looks like an even more ridiculous call. We did get pretty CLOSE to 60, and we still have another 15 days... It's in the 80s in Central VA today, so it's not far away. There's a decent chance NYC and many of us don't hit 60 the entire month, which has only happened a couple other times in the past 120+ years I believe. I've seen 80s in VA and cool temps here almost every early spring. Warm-fronts love to get stuck in the mid-atlantic at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Nice uptick on the 18z NAM for the rain tomorrow, hopefully we can get at least 0.25" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Even more remarkable is the percentage of snowfall that has occurred on days when the AO was positive. For 2004-05: AO-: 35.7" (87.1%) AO+: 5.3" (12.9%) For 2014-15: AO-: 3.6" (8.5%) AO+: 38.9" (91.5%) While we don't have the AO dailies for 33-34, that was probably the last time that we saw such impressive snowfall during a +AO winter. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/ao/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Someone is being abrasive and its not pazzo...its DT like...I dont think anyone likes a know it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 why is anyone claiming victory (either way) on 3/16? Let the month play out before saying who is right and who is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Someone is being abrasive and its not pazzo...its PB like...I dont think anyone likes a know it all FYP . Worse than a know it all is bad analysis then crying about etiquette . Pazzo is a big boy , he led with his chin . He will be fine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think snow on Friday isn't anywhere near a slam dunk, the boundary layer is very suspect, and it is nowhere near a good cad setup, not even in the ballpark. Plus what falls during the day (late March sun) will need heavy rates and strong lifting to support dynamic cooling if you hope to get good accumulations and keep it all snow. Ratios will also be very, very poor. We should use any "snowstorm" talk real cautiously right now imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 There's a decent chance NYC and many of us don't hit 60 the entire month, which has only happened a couple other times in the past 120+ years I believe. I've seen 80s in VA and cool temps here almost every early spring. Warm-fronts love to get stuck in the mid-atlantic at this time of year.Yeah I don't get that post, that happens every March and April. It's 70-80 in the Midwest but that is not coming here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1032 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 VALID 12Z THU MAR 19 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 23 2015 QUOTE THE SWARM OF SHORTWAVES ADVERTISED TO CROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE IS LEADING THE MODELS A MERRY CHASE. HIGH SPREAD IS EVEN EVIDENT WHEN COMPARING ENSEMBLE MEANS, SO BLENDED THE MORE ROBUSTLY POPULATED ECENS AND NAEFS AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE THREAT OF A FEW INCHES OF LATE-SEASON SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, WITH A COMMENSURATE NORTHWARD SHIFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL STATES. IN THE WEST, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD STAY UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think snow on Friday isn't anywhere near a slam dunk, the boundary layer is very suspect, and it is nowhere near a good cad setup, not even in the ballpark. Plus what falls during the day (late March sun) will need heavy rates and strong lifting to support dynamic cooling if you hope to get good accumulations and keep it all snow. Ratios will also be very, very poor. We should use any "snowstorm" talk real cautiously right now imo Eventually ur negativtiy will nail a snowstorm threat...you go girl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think snow on Friday isn't anywhere near a slam dunk, the boundary layer is very suspect, and it is nowhere near a good cad setup, not even in the ballpark. Plus what falls during the day (late March sun) will need heavy rates and strong lifting to support dynamic cooling if you hope to get good accumulations and keep it all snow. Ratios will also be very, very poor. We should use any "snowstorm" talk real cautiously right now imo Of course it's not a slam dunk nobody said it was but some people act like its May, and it can't snow this time of year. All we can say is the potential is there for a late season snowfall. If we get several inches, then we'll be challenging March snowfall records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Yeah I don't get that post, that happens every March and April. It's 70-80 in the Midwest but that is not coming here either. Our nice cold ocean makes it difficult to get those readings. Also there's still some good snowcover not too far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 There's a decent chance NYC and many of us don't hit 60 the entire month, which has only happened a couple other times in the past 120+ years I believe. I've seen 80s in VA and cool temps here almost every early spring. Warm-fronts love to get stuck in the mid-atlantic at this time of year. That's what's happening today, maybe we can get close tomorrow. Next and final chance prob at the very end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think snow on Friday isn't anywhere near a slam dunk, the boundary layer is very suspect, and it is nowhere near a good cad setup, not even in the ballpark. Plus what falls during the day (late March sun) will need heavy rates and strong lifting to support dynamic cooling if you hope to get good accumulations and keep it all snow. Ratios will also be very, very poor. We should use any "snowstorm" talk real cautiously right now imo Every storm in late March has an iffy boundary layer temp. Nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I don't think anyone claimed it can't snow. It's the return to winter talk in late March that is patently absurd. By the way, like PB said, this is all fun to me (the back and forth). No need to get worked up over an argument on here, I know neither of us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I don't think anyone claimed it can't snow. It's the return to winter talk in late March that is patently absurd. By the way, like PB said, this is all fun to me (the back and forth). No need to get worked up over an argument on here, I know neither of us do. Bro. The warmth is transient. We are still in a -EPO dominated pattern. P.S. I want 70s and 80s, so I am not being a cold weather weenie. I just don't see any sustained warmth for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I don't think anyone claimed it can't snow. It's the return to winter talk in late March that is patently absurd. By the way, like PB said, this is all fun to me (the back and forth). No need to get worked up over an argument on here, I know neither of us do. Agree, Chris is my boy . Dude , I do come at you hard and you at me . I am very kool with that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Agree, Chris is my boy . Dude , I do come at you hard and you at me . I am very kool with that . Haha, how else are you supposed to learn around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Bro. The warmth is transient. We are still in a -EPO dominated pattern. P.S. I want 70s and 80s, so I am not being a cold weather weenie. I just don't see any sustained warmth for a while. Lmao the warmth is transient? It's going to be April in less than 3 weeks... At this point the COLD is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Lmao the warmth is transient? It's going to be April in less than 3 weeks... At this point the COLD is transient. When I say warmth, I mean above normal temps. With a dominant -epo pattern, temps will be strongly on the negative side. Similar to last spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 When I say warmth, I mean above normal temps. With a dominant -epo pattern, temps will be strongly on the negative side. Similar to last spring and summer. Fair enough, probably a lot of 50s early on in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 GFS 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Haha, how else are you supposed to learn around here? Tune Out the model PBP drama queens---LOL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f096_us.html Betcha the bulk of the moisture stays offshore..... then again--- I could be Humpty Dumpty!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 History was made by the MJO to go with all the other extremes of recent years. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/577494428912197632 https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/577495779243347968 Follow WSI Energy Weather@WSI_Energy The Real-Time Multivariate MJO index has broke its all-time record for the highest amplitude in history; +4.10 sigma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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