Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 hr 108 paste bomb for sne and nw jersey.. city and long island have 850's plenty cold but surface is funky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 sv snow maps don't have much for the metro area and 1-2/2-4 nw and into sne, looks very elevation driven…late winter climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 This run looks like 33-34 with heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 850 zero never gets north of Sandy Hook and surface temps look to stay in the 30's with a heavy wet snow signal this run. Evap cooling could let us do better than those SV algos suggest. Yeah the surface maps have the 540 line south of nyc the entire storm…warmest part is friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Can someone relay the track and strength of the low and high pressure that exits in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The warmest surface temps get on the Euro is 34-35 and that's mostly confined to Long Island. Select approximate QPF MMU - 0.65" ISP - 0.85" HPN - 0.60" SWF - 0.50" EWR - 0.70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Def a warning event for area just outside the city….per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 KNYC snow as per Euro . SV maps are looking at the BL .The EURO is fine at KNYC 102 700 -7 850 -3 925 - 2 BL 34 .3 108 700 -7 850 -1 925 0 BL 33 .3 - .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The warmest surface temps get on the Euro is 34-35 and that's mostly confined to Long Island. Select approximate QPF MMU - 0.65" ISP - 0.85" HPN - 0.60" SWF - 0.50" EWR - 0.70" Thanks for the details. Looking like a 4-6 inch snow fall is taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Sadly the Euro looks close to a paste bomb, just a bit shy on QPF, but with the surface near or just above freezing and a late March sun angle I would take the under on accumulations. Most of the precip falls between 18z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The ground is no longer frozen in most spots, something else to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The WxBell maps which we know are inflated have a stripe of 5"+ that essentially runs from Bethlehem, PA over MMU and then into NE NJ and eventually SW CT. Two secondary maximums, one near the higher elevations of Orange County and the North shore of LI near Smithtown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 How are the other upper levels besides 850? Steve is relentless on saying those warm up too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Nice to see the idea that winter was not over has merit . The call for a return to a colder last 10 days looks on target and now some of us will receive a late season snowstorm and that is always a plus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Nice to see the idea that winter was not over has merit . The call for a return to a colder last 10 days looks on target and now some of us will receive a late season snowstorm and that is always a plus . Whether or not the storm pans out you've done a good job predicting the pattern. I will eat a Kudos in your honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Verbatim Bloviations.............. never get old for the record GFS-ENS = OTS Sat Max Temp prog from the WPC--- 50 deg but hey I always cherry pick!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Verbatim Blovinations.............. never get old for the record GFS-ENS =OTS Sat Max Temp prog from the WPC--- 50 deg but hey I always cherry pick!!!!! blov.gif While we precip . The EURO is fine at KNYC 102 700 -7 850 -3 925 - 2 BL 34 .3 108 700 -7 850 -1 925 0 BL 33 .3 - .4 I hope its 80 SUNDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Whether or not the storm pans out you've done a good job predicting the pattern. I will eat a Kudos in your honor. Thank you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The WxBell maps which we know are inflated have a stripe of 5"+ that essentially runs from Bethlehem, PA over MMU and then into NE NJ and eventually SW CT. Two secondary maximums, one near the higher elevations of Orange County and the North shore of LI near Smithtown area. yea, this could favor my backyard locally with elevation as long as we get precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Nice to see the idea that winter was not over has merit . The call for a return to a colder last 10 days looks on target and now some of us will receive a late season snowstorm and that is always a plus . The weeklies nailed the return to colder back February and the MJO mayhem helped the -AO side of the equation. The weekend PV drop into New England also adds a nice finishing touch behind the late season snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 yea, this could favor my backyard locally with elevation as long as we get precip. Yes, assuming that 700's/850's/925's stay cold throughout and the BL is the only questionable layer then elevated areas would have quite the advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The weeklies nailed the return to colder back February and the MJO mayhem helped the -AO side of the equation. The weekend PV drop into New England also adds a nice finishing touch behind the late season snow potential. f144.gif Agreed . I think the guidance did a very good job seeing this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Seeing the NAVGEM this close to the coast at this range is a pretty good signal that this will come NW. Doorman going to go down in flames with this event. And I really have no horse in the race since this storm will either screw up my golf game in Charleston on Saturday or occur while I'm out of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Nice to see the idea that winter was not over has merit . The call for a return to a colder last 10 days looks on target and now some of us will receive a late season snowstorm and that is always a plus . You said -10 or greater for 10+ days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 “They say even death can't cure an idiot.-Ririn maybe.... the fringes of rain for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Doorman came to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That map is after the storm passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 New map from HPC, QPF increasing Like I said, Doorman will end up being wrong. You can't hump a GEFS ensemble mean six days out and expect to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 You said -10 or greater for 10+ days.... I am so glad you jumped in . My March calls vs yours , if you like I will pull every post and embarrass you . You argued that we would see 60`s and 70`s at KNYC Highest temp at KNYC 59 . Thanks for playing . I argued March would be below normal , you argued against it . CHECK I argued 1 week of above normal and then a return to colder than normal CHECK I argued for the -EPO to return , you argued against it CHECK . Many of us here said it would snow again , ALMOST THERE KID . WILL CHECK YOU FRI PM I said 10 days of - 10 - we will see what that looks like once to March 31 . ( Your last hope ) . I mean with your track record how in gods name are you even showing your face in here , you have been obliterated in every call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The hpc map shown had the low passing on or just inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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