Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That AO drop will remain record breaking. It's not often we see a drop from over +5, which is record breaking in itself to nearly -2 over just a short period of time. That part is true. It just doesnt stay negative though, quickly bouncing back. Unless the -EPO is decent in the coming 10 days, we'll likely see a warmer pattern develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 12z GFS drops 4-7...more on Long Island...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That part is true. It just doesnt stay negative though, quickly bouncing back. Unless the -EPO is decent in the coming 10 days, we'll likely see a warmer pattern develop I don't see a warmer pattern at for at least a few weeks relative to the time period. There will be warmer days but overall it should be cooler. The pattern coming up is basically our winter pattern but in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 12z GFS drops 4-7...more on Long Island...interesting More like 3-5". Verbatim, some is wasted cooling the column, it's on an east wind, marginal temps, daytime in late March, without heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Clearly people are afraid to get excited, understandble, but there is some model support for accumilating snow starting Friday night. The last GFS run , in fact, brings in SECS. Lets see where we are in terms of continuity and concensus 48 hrs from now then Ill ramp up my nterest level myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 More like 3-5". Verbatim, some is wasted cooling the column, it's on an east wind, marginal temps, daytime in late March, without heavy rates. How is the GFS not heavy rates? GFS is a minimum of 5"-8", IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 More like 3-5". Verbatim, some is wasted cooling the column, it's on an east wind, marginal temps, daytime in late March, without heavy rates. What an earth-shattering distinction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Looks like agreement on a winter-like storm Friday/Fri Night, just a matter of the details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 As noted earlier, the forecast 500 mb pattern is a pretty good one. If there's a storm remains the big question. If there is, I suspect that NYC has a realistic shot of 3" snow and possibly more given the 500 mb pattern (not too dissimilar from March 18, 1956). Since 2000, there have been 7 storms that brought 1" or more snow to NYC after 3/15, 4 that have brought 3" or more, and 3 that brought 4" or more. Those storms are: April 9, 2000: 1.2" April 7, 2003: 4.0" March 16-17, 2004: 4.0" March 23, 2005: 1.0" March 16, 2007: 5.5" March 24, 2011: 1.0" March 18, 2013: 3.0" To date, March 2015 has received 14.1" snow. That's the most snow in March since 1967 when 17.4" fell. The only higher snowfalls for March since 1950 occurred in 1956 (21.1") and 1960 (18.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 More like 3-5". Verbatim, some is wasted cooling the column, it's on an east wind, marginal temps, daytime in late March, without heavy rates. Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Verbatim the Gfs shows a SECS with a good chunk of it falling in the evening and at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I'm waiting to see the gefs, ukmet, ggem and euro before I believe that solution. We've been burned too many times this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 You were saying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 GFS is cold and snowy through end of run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Ggem is to warm at the surface for the area. Interior SNE get a paste bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Ggem is to warm at the surface for the area. Interior SNE get a paste bombThis is my worry..especially for late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Fantasy land, but GFS has huge winter storm (verbatim actually surpressed south of us) at end of run, thing to take away is chances are likely we are not done with snow yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Ggem is to warm at the surface for the area. Interior SNE get a paste bomb Looks more realistic to me, with the high sliding east instead of NE, and low pressure sliding north of the Great Lakes. Pattern is great but the synoptic setup has problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Ggem is to warm at the surface for the area. Interior SNE get a paste bomb What about aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 How is the GFS not heavy rates? GFS is a minimum of 5"-8", IMO. Sorry, I forget sometimes that this forum covers areas pretty far away from me. I'm on the line between the Philly and NYC metros, and so my comment was more for interior northern and central NJ. NYC east is a different story with precip intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 You were saying ? One GFS run isn't going to convince me of anything. Either way I'm rooting heavily against this one. 6:30PM flight out Friday night from JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Looks more realistic to me, with the high sliding east instead of NE, and low pressure sliding north of the Great Lakes. Pattern is great but the synoptic setup has problems. The High can end up anywhere. GGEM is just 1 run out of dozens and dozens to go. More then one model has shown a snowstorm for this weekend. To me, that's a good signal for a period where accumulating snow is possible. Especially north of EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 One GFS run isn't going to convince me of anything. Either way I'm rooting heavily against this one. 6:30PM flight out Friday night from JFK. So because you are leaving, you are rooting for it to miss the area? Gotcha. I hope JFK and LGA receive 15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Looks more realistic to me, with the high sliding east instead of NE, and low pressure sliding north of the Great Lakes. Pattern is great but the synoptic setup has problems. I've seen this argument numerous times and it may be valid. The thing that bothers me though is the models all use equations that take all of the parameters into consideration and spit out the results. I don't know how a person can just look at the setup and say the model is likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 So because you are leaving, you are rooting for it to miss the area? Unbelievably selfish. Because me rooting against it will somehow cause the storm to miss... Now that's unbelievable I could care less if the storm comes in late Friday night or Saturday and I'm not here for it. I just don't want to have to deal with flight cancellations ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I've seen this argument numerous times and it may be valid. The thing that bothers me though is the models all use equations that take all of the parameters into consideration and spit out the results. I don't know how a person can just look at the setup and say the model is likely wrong. Based on the jet pattern and orientation of the baroclinic zone, I think easterly movement of the SHP is more logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The GFS came in a little further north than the 0z Euro so the Gulf moisture and STJ exit region dynamics come into play for our region this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Let's see what the euro does with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 And Ag3, when do you not hope that your backyard receives the most snow? You say that like this time is any different from any other time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 euro has snow starting early friday morning 850's plenty cold and surface to start..then it gets kind of funky at hr 100 elevation driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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