Doorman Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Now seen on every model. Even Helen Keller sees this. . Mr B Maybe ...she should text the WPC then??? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml days 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 12z Canadian has the snow moving in Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 DM I think WPC will look better tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Weenie maps from GFS(lower left) GGEM(top) EURO(lower right) Still would be shocked if these came close to verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 NAVGEM looks similar to gfs, in keeping heavier precip mostly confined to extreme LHV points south And the ukie is a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Looks like warm weather will stick around another 7 days at least. How is the rest of this month look like for any snow threats NJ Area? Thanks! Kamil L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 “All right all right don’t rush me, I’m-a-thinkin’ … and my head hurts” ____________ drink up varmint !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Looks like warm weather will stick around another 7 days at least. How is the rest of this month look like for any snow threats NJ Area? Thanks! Kamil L Did you bother reading the last few pages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Not even sure why I'm bringing this up since it's 6 days out but for all the model huggers out there, the 00z GFS is a miss for the Friday-Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Not even sure why I'm bringing this up since it's 6 days out but for all the model huggers out there, the 00z GFS is a miss for the Friday-Saturday storm. this speaks for itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 and this is the 00z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Canadian has the storm as well it seems for Friday night per New England thread, rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 6z gfs joining the ggem/euro in showing a storm for Friday night/Saturday now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 6z gfs joining the ggem/euro in showing a storm for Friday night/Saturday now...precip type?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Two things to remember with this storm: Very strong STJ and Gulf moisture feed will be in play. Dewpoints and Wetbulbs are forecast to be low in soundings so heavier precip getting in here will dynamically cool the column for a possible heavy wet late season snow should the low ride far enough north. Too soon to call the northern extent of heavier QPF until we get to under 72 hrs. Very strong STJ streak exit region for low to deepen and plenty of Gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 precip type?? On the northern fringe of snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 another ao drop that doesn't last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 can't buy a -AO this year. Not that it mattered for most in the end with the prolific seasonal snowfall totals everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Every attempt at a -AO and -NAO this winter has failed miserably and gone down in flames. Just brief, transient dips to negative, then right back up to solid positive values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Every attempt at a -AO and -NAO this winter has failed miserably and gone down in flames. Just brief, transient dips to negative, then right back up to solid positive values That's all we have needed as there has been accumulating snow around or after every dip into negative territory since early December. Our most productive period of accumulation was ushered in by the late January drop. A little -AO goes a very long way with an historic +PDO/-EPO/+PNA regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That's all we have needed as there has been accumulating snow around or after every dip into negative territory since early December. Our most productive period of accumulation was ushered in by the late January drop. A little -AO goes a very long way with an historic +PDO/-EPO/+PNA regime. Imagine that regime with Greenland blocking/west based -NAO? Lol it would probably have rivaled '95-'96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Imagine that regime with Greenland blocking/west based -NAO? Lol it would probably have rivaled '95-'96 2010-2011 came the closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The ensembles were already showing a quick rebound to a +AO a week ago when everyone was drooling over the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The ensembles were already showing a quick rebound to a +AO a week ago when everyone was drooling over the upcoming pattern. This pattern was modeled to be a great one for a big storm but they have trended away with it. What a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Imagine that regime with Greenland blocking/west based -NAO? Lol it would probably have rivaled '95-'96 This winter will go down in the record books as the greatest snow production on such a strong +AO since 1950 due to the historic Pacific pattern. NYC is currently in the 40-50" range for seasonal snowfall coming off a positive AO DJF. Check out how much lower the AO was in the other 40-50" seasons in NYC since 1950. DJF...14-15....AO...+0.85 .........05-06............-0.81 .........04-05............+0.15 .........03-04............-0.98 .........02-03............-0.64 .........77-78............-1.20 .........63-64............-0.46 .........57-58............-0.95 .........63-64............-0.46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I'm taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" road. The trend all season has been drier and weaker and I see no reason why any of that would change now. Too many times we've been fooled into thinking that the pattern would make a major flip into a blocking regime and all Winter it's ended up either being transient or hasn't happened. Forgive me for being a debbie downer, but it's hard to ignore seasonal trends, especially when climo is becoming increasingly unfavorable each day that passes. This pattern was modeled to be a great one for a big storm but they have trended away with it. What a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The ensembles were already showing a quick rebound to a +AO a week ago when everyone was drooling over the upcoming pattern. It should be noted that with shortening wavelengths, an AO+/PNA- pattern (not yet modeled, but a few ensemble members suggest at least a possibility for the PNA), has seen some of the area's biggest late-season snowstorms. The two most prominent storms are the April 6-7, 1982 blizzard and March 31-April 1, 1997 snowstorm. The 3/20-24 period still has a pretty good 500 mb pattern for the northern Mid-Atlantic and perhaps southern New England areas on the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Whether or not a storm develops remains to be seen and the seasonal transition that is currently underway often leads to lower than average run-to-run continuity in the models, especially from day 5 and afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 This winter will go down in the record books as the greatest snow production on such a strong +AO since 1950 due to the historic Pacific pattern. NYC is currently in the 40-50" range for seasonal snowfall coming off a positive AO DJF. Check out how much lower the AO was in the other 40-50" seasons in NYC since 1950. DJF...14-15....AO...+0.85 .........05-06............-0.81 .........04-05............+0.15 .........03-04............-0.98 .........02-03............-0.64 .........77-78............-1.20 .........63-64............-0.46 .........57-58............-0.95 .........63-64............-0.46 Even more remarkable is the percentage of snowfall that has occurred on days when the AO was positive. For 2004-05: AO-: 35.7" (87.1%) AO+: 5.3" (12.9%) For 2014-15: AO-: 3.6" (8.5%) AO+: 38.9" (91.5%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Even more remarkable is the percentage of snowfall that has occurred on days when the AO was positive. For 2004-05: AO-: 35.7" (87.1%) AO+: 5.3" (12.9%) For 2014-15: AO-: 3.6" (8.5%) AO+: 38.9" (91.5%) Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That AO drop will remain record breaking. It's not often we see a drop from over +5, which is record breaking in itself to nearly -2 over just a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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