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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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I'm not near my computer but met Coastalwx said in the New England forum that the euro is showing more rain for the system even up that way, I know it's going to change a bunch of times between now and the weekend tho

Not for the 1st system. Hours 156 162 are all snow at KNYC.

The Euro supports mostly snow from 78 N .

Just look for the storm and worry about the details later this week as its 6 days out. It's a great upper air pattern , we are starting to see the models spin something up next weekend.

Coastal was talking about the day 10 system.

This is for day 7 which they miss as per the Euro.

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Not for the 1st system. Hours 156 162 are all snow at KNYC.

The Euro supports mostly snow from 78 N .

Just look for the storm and worry about the details later this week as its 6 days out. It's a great upper air pattern , we are starting to see the models spin something up next weekend.

Coastal was talking about the day 10 system.

This is for day 7 which they miss as per the Euro.

Oh ok I misread him then
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NYC last 20 March's temp dep (snowfall) and subsequent April

 

March /  April

1995: +2.4 (trace)     /     -1.1 (trace)

1996: -3.5 (13.2)      /  -0.8 (0.7)

1997: -0.6  (1.7)       / -1.3 (Trace)

1998: +2.9 (5.0)       / +1.0 (0.0)

1999:  +0.1  (4.5)     /  +0.5 (0.0)

2000:  +4.7  (0.4)     /  -2.0  (1.2)

2001: -2.8 (3.8 )      /   +0.9 (0.0)

2002: +1.7 (Trace)   / +3.1 (Trace)

2003: +0.6 (3.5)       /  -3.2  (4.1)

2004: +1.1 (4.8 )        /  +0.6 (0.0)

2005: -3.1 (6.9)         /    +2.1  (0.0)

2006: +0.6 (1.3)        /  +2.7  (0.1)

2007: -0.2 (6.01)       /  -2.7  (Trace)

2008: +0.2 (Trace)    /   +2.0 (0.0)

2009: +0.0 (8.3)        /  +1.5  (Trace)

2010: +5.7 (Trace)   /  +4.9  (Trace)

2011: -0.1 (1.0)        /  +1.3  (Trace)

2012: +8.5 (0.0)      /   +1.8 (0.0)

2013: -2.3 (7.3)      /  0.0  (0,0)

2014: -4.8 (0.1)     /  -0.7  (Trace)

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Although 3" or greater snowstorms in NYC after 3/15 are not very common, they do occur about once very 3.5 years. Moreover, as the wavelengths are shortening, model performance in the medium-range and beyond is worse than one finds during mid-winter or mid-summer. Hence, one should not automatically write off the prospect that such a storm could occur this winter.

 

If one looks more closely at patterns, the AO-/PNA+ pattern has featured 26% of such storms since 1950 and the AO- pattern has featured 58% of such storms. The biggest AO-/PNA+ storm was the March 18-19, 1956 storm when 11.6" snow fell in NYC. The ECMWF ensembles have had a somewhat similar trough-ridge setup as during that pattern, though the trough was located somewhat farther to the north than in 1956. Such a setup would at least suggest that the 3/20-24 timeframe bears a degree of watching should any storms develop.

 

In short, at least for me, it's too soon to write off the idea of a possible 3" or greater snowfall before winter 2014-15 concludes, much less a lesser accumulation.

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